Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins of the Richmond Fed explore changes in the aggregate employment of men between the ages of 25 and 64 in the United States from 1968 to 2010. Since 1970, the percentage of this group that is employed has trended down, and the percentage that is out of the labor force has trended up. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, 76.3 percent of the group was employed in 2010 (an all-time low), while 14.7 percent was out of the work force (an all-time high). The authors decompose the changes in these labor market outcomes into changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and changes in the labor market outcomes of different sociodemographic groups. Using those results, they project that the share of men aged 25 to 64 out of the labor force may increase to 16 percent in 2015.
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