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2004 Working Papers

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Alfred Marshall and the Quantity Theory of Money
By Thomas M. Humphrey
Working Paper 04-10
Released: December 2004

Marshall made at least four contributions to the classical quantity theory. He endowed it with his Cambridge cash-balance money-supply-and-demand framework to explain how the nominal money supply relative to real money demand determines the price level...



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Productivity, Employment, and Inventories
By Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Andreas Hornstein & Yongsung Chang
Working Paper 04-9
Released: December 2004

Whether or not inventories can be used to break the link between production and sales is crucial for understanding firms’ employment response to productivity shocks. In a Taylor-type sticky-price model with inventories, we show that the employment...

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The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities
By Giovanni L. Violante, Per Krusell & Andreas Hornstein
Working Paper 04-8
Released: December 2004

In this chapter we inspect economic mechanisms through which technological progress shapes the degree of inequality among workers in the labor market. A key focus is on the rise of U.S. wage inequality over the past 30 years. However, we also pay...

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Whither North Carolina Furniture Manufacturing?
By Robert L. Lacy
Working Paper 04-7
Released: September 2004

North Carolina's furniture manufacturing industry has contracted in recent years as imports have gained a greater share of the domestic furniture market. Rapid growth of the furniture industry in China and a surge in exports from that country to the...

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The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look
By Yash P. Mehra
Working Paper 04-6
Released: August 2004

The empirical test of the output gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve often has been implemented by estimating a hybrid specification that includes both lagged and future inflation and then by examining whether the estimated coefficient on future...



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Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity, and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria
By Alexander L. Wolman & Robert G. King
Working Paper 04-5
Released: June 2004

A discretionary policymaker responds to the state of the economy each period. Private agents' current behavior determines the future state based on expectations of future policy. Discretionary policy thus can lead to dynamic complementarity between...

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An Inquiry into the Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium with State-Dependent Pricing
By Alexander L. Wolman & A. John
Working Paper 04-4
Released: April 2004

State-dependent pricing models are now an operational framework for quantitative business cycle analysis. The analysis in Ball and Romer [1991], however, suggests that such models may be rife with multiple equilibria: in their static model price...

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Bank Runs and Investment Decisions Revisited
By Todd Keister & Huberto M. Ennis
Working Paper 04-3
Released: March 2004

We examine how the possibility of a bank run affects the deposit contract offered and the investment decisions made by a competitive bank. Cooper and Ross (1998) have shown that when the probability of a run is small, the bank will offer a contract that...

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State-Contingent Bank Regulation With Unobserved Actions and Unobserved Characteristics
By David A. Marshall & Edward Simpson Prescott
Working Paper 04-2
Released: February 2004

This paper studies bank regulation in the presence of deposit insurance, where banks have private information on their own ability and their investment strategy. Banks choose the mean and variance of their portfolio return. Regulators wish to control...

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Price Stability and Japanese Monetary Policy
By Robert L. Hetzel
Working Paper 04-1
Released: February 2004

For most of the time since 1995, the Japanese price level has declined. Since early 1999, short-term interest rates have mostly remained near zero. Also, starting in 2001, the excess reserves held by banks have risen dramatically. Many observers have...

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