Research

Economic Quarterly

Spring 1993

Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues

Bennett T. McCallum

Our Research Focus: Economic Growth and Business Cycles

The relevant question concerning “unit roots” in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate that an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data. Also considered is whether trending series should be differenced prior to use in regression analysis. In addition, it is argued that the absence of cointegration among variables does not imply the absence of any practicality useful long-run relationship.

View Full Article

Contact Us

Richmond

Amanda L. Kramer
(804) 697-8606

subscriptions
Order Publications

Order single copies or subscribe to Economic Quarterly and other publications from the Federal Reserve System.