Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality - Economic Quarterly Summer 2002
Article
Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality
Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality - Economic Quarterly Summer 2002
Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality - Economic Quarterly Summer 2002
Summer
2002
Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality
Yash P. Mehra {yasmeh1}
<p>Comparison of three survey measures of one-year-ahead CPI inflation- Livingston, Michigan, and Professional Forecasters-permits assessment of their accuracy, predictive content, and rationality. The author uses the test of Granger-causality to investigate predictive content and real-time data on some pertinent variables to evaluate the rationality. His results indicate that the Michigan-median inflation forecasts are relatively the most accurate, unbiased, and efficient and have predictive content for actual future inflation. They also indicate that test results on the rationality of survey forecasts are not robust to the use of real-time data.</p>
/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2002/summer/pdf/mehra.pdf
Inflation & Monetary Policy
1
Monetary Policy
Inflation
<p>Comparison of three survey measures of one-year-ahead CPI inflation- Livingston, Michigan, and Professional Forecasters-permits assessment of their accuracy, predictive content, and rationality. The author uses the test of Granger-causality to investigate predictive content and real-time data on some pertinent variables to evaluate the rationality. His results indicate that the Michigan-median inflation forecasts are relatively the most accurate, unbiased, and efficient and have predictive content for actual future inflation. They also indicate that test results on the rationality of survey forecasts are not robust to the use of real-time data.</p>
Economic Quarterly
Summer
2002