Fall 2007

Professional Prognosticators

Is forecasting a science or an art?
By Doug Campbell

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Related Links

Bauer, Andy, Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Forecast Evaluation with Cross-Sectional Data: The Blue Chip Surveys." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter 2003, pp. 17-31.

Romer, Christina D., and David H. Romer. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates." American Economic Review, June 2000, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 429-457.

Sims, Christopher. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 2002, no. 2, pp. 1-62.

Tulip, Peter. "Has Output Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy." Federal Reserve Board of Governors Finance and Economics Discussion Series, August 2005, no. 31.