Our Research Focus

Economic Growth & Business Cycles

We examine differences in living standards between countries and across time, and potential explanations for those differences. We also look at what causes fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Recent papers have dealt with the effects of differing fiscal policies and the economics of sovereign defaults.

Issue Title Author(s)
First Quarter 2014 A Business Cycle Analysis of Debt and Equity Financing Marios Karabarbounis
Patrick Macnamara
Roisin McCord
Fourth Quarter 2013 The Business Cycle Behavior of Working Capital Felipe Schwartzman
Third Quarter 2012 When Do Credit Frictions Matter for Business Cycles? Felipe Schwartzman
Second Quarter 2012 The Performance of Non-Owner-Occupied Mortgages During the Housing Crisis Breck Robinson
Third Quarter 2011 A Perspective on Modern Business Cycle Theory Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Third Quarter 2011 Recent Developments in Economic Growth Diego Restuccia
Second Quarter 2011 Sectoral Disturbances and Aggregate Economic Activity Nadezhda Malysheva
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
First Quarter 2011 Optimal Contracts for Housing Services Purchases Borys Grochulski
Fourth Quarter 2010 News Shocks and Business Cycles Per Krusell
Alisdair McKay
Fourth Quarter 2010 Risk Sharing, Investment, and Incentives in the Neoclassical Growth Model Emilio Espino
Juan M. Sanchez
Third Quarter 2010 The Politics of Sovereign Defaults Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
Fall 2009 Heterogeneity in Sectoral Employment and the Business Cycle Nadezhda Malysheva
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Summer 2009 Distortionary Taxation for Efficient Redistribution Borys Grochulski
Summer 2009 The Behavior of Household and Business Investment over the Business Cycle Kausik Gangopadhyay
Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Summer 2009 Why Could Political Incentives Be Different During Election Times? Leonardo Martinez
Summer 2007 Quantitative Models of Sovereign Default and the Threat of Financial Exclusion Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
Horacio Sapriza
Summer 2007 Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment Under Political Instability Marina Azzimonti
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Spring 2007 How Accurate Are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps? Mark W. Watson
Spring 2007 The Economics of Sovereign Defaults Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
Horacio Sapriza
Winter 2007 Implications of Some Alternatives to Capital Income Taxation Kartik B. Athreya
Andrea L. Waddle
Winter 2007 Exchange Rates and Business Cycles Across Countries Margarida Duarte
Diego Restuccia
Andrea L. Waddle
Winter 2007 Optimal Nonlinear Income Taxation with Costly Tax Avoidance Borys Grochulski
Fall 2005 How Well Do Diffusion Indexes Capture Business Cycles? A Spectral Analysis Raymond E. Owens
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Summer 2005 Oil Prices and Consumer Spending Yash P. Mehra
Jon D. Petersen
Fall 2004 (Un)Balanced Growth Andreas Hornstein
Fall 2003 Boom and Bust in Telecommunications Elise A. Couper
John P. Hejkal
Alexander L. Wolman
Summer 2003 How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform During the 2001 Recession? James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson
Winter 2003 Efficient Public Investment in a Model with Transition Dynamics Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Jorge Soares
Winter 2003 The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Employee Compensation Roy H. Webb
Fall 2002 Structure From Shocks Michael Dotsey
Spring 2001 Optimal Taxation in Infinitely-Lived Agent and Overlapping Generations Models: A Review Martin Gervais
Andrés Erosa
Spring 2001 The Wealth Effect in Empirical Life-Cycle Aggregate Consumption Equations Yash P. Mehra
Fall 2000 The IT Revolution: Is It Evident in the Productivity Numbers? Per Krusell
Andreas Hornstein
Spring 2000 How the Asian Crisis Affected the World Economy: A General Equilibrium Perspective Wenli Li
Xinshen Diao
Erinc Yeldan
Winter 2000 The Business Cycle and Industry Comovement Andreas Hornstein
Fall 1999 Sticky Prices, Marginal Cost, and the Behavior of Inflation Alexander L. Wolman
Summer 1999 Growth Accounting with Technological Revolutions Andreas Hornstein
Summer 1999 An Empirical Investigation of Fluctuations in Manufacturing Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Summer 1999 Two Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting Roy H. Webb
Spring 1998 Inventory Investment and the Business Cycle Andreas Hornstein
Spring 1998 New Evidence Connecting Exchange Rates to Business Cycles Alan C. Stockman
Winter 1998 National Productivity Statistics Roy H. Webb
Fall 1997 Investing in Equities: Can it Help Social Security? Michael Dotsey
Summer 1997 On the Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Fall 1996 Neoclassical vs. Endogenous Growth Analysis: An Overview Bennett T. McCallum
Summer 1996 A Theory of the Capacity Utilization/Inflation Relationship Mary G. Finn
Summer 1995 Quantitative Theory and Econometrics Robert G. King
Winter 1995 Is "High" Capacity Utilization Inflationary? Mary G. Finn
Winter 1995 Using the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Forecasting Peter N. Ireland
Summer 1994 Short-Run Effects of Money When Some Prices Are Sticky Lee E. Ohanian
Alan C. Stockman
Winter 1994 Two Perspectives on Growth and Taxes Peter N. Ireland
Fall 1993 Public Investment and Economic Growth William E. Cullison
Fall 1993 Is All Government Capital Productive? Mary G. Finn
Spring 1993 Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues Bennett T. McCallum
Spring 1993 Personal Saving Behavior and Real Economic Activity Roy H. Webb
Issue Title Author(s)
1992 Forecasting the Effects of Reduced Defense Spending Peter N. Ireland
Christopher Otrok
1992 The Case of the Reluctant Recovery William E. Cullison
1992 Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity Michael Dotsey
Max Reid
1992 Evidence of Improved Inventory Control Dan M. Bechter
Stephen Stanley
1991 Productivity in Banking and Effects from Deregulation David B. Humphrey
1990 The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Ching-Sheng Mao
1989 Estimating Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: The Case of Log-Linear Restrictions Ching-Sheng Mao
1989 The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: What the Experts Say William E. Cullison
1989 Macroeconomic Price Indexes Roy H. Webb
Rob Willemse
1988 Rational Expectations Business Cycle Models: A Survey Michael Dotsey
Robert G. King
1988 Agricultural Summary and Outlook Raymond E. Owens
1987 An Overview of Agricultural Policy . . . Past, Present, and Future Raymond E. Owens
1987 The Agricultural Outlook for 1987 . . . Financial Turnaround Unlikely Raymond E. Owens
1986 The Agricultural Outlook for 1986 . . . Continued Financial Weakness Seen Raymond E. Owens
1985 Controversy Over the Federal Budget Deficit: A Theoretical Perspective Michael Dotsey
1985 Toward More Accurate Macroeconomic Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions Roy H. Webb
1985 Forecasts 1985 Roy H. Webb
1985 The Agricultural Outlook for 1985 . . . A Little Promise Seen Raymond E. Owens
1984 The Tax Effect, and the Recent Behaviors of the After-Tax Real Rate: Is It Too High? Yash P. Mehra
1984 Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluations Roy H. Webb
1984 Forecasts 1984 Roy H. Webb
1984 The Economic Outlook for Fifth District States in 1984: Forecasts from Vector Autoregression Models Anatoli Kuprianov
William M. Lupoletti
1983 Forecasts 1983 Roy H. Webb
1983 The 1983 Outlook for Agriculture Sada L. Clarke
1982 Forecasts 1982 Roy H. Webb
1982 The Agricultural Outlook for '82 Sada L. Clarke
1981 1980: A Difficult Year for Farmers Sada L. Clarke
1981 Forecasts 1981 William E. Cullison
1981 More Promising . . . The Outlook for Agriculture in '81 Sada L. Clarke
1980 Forecasts 1980 William E. Cullison
1980 Less Promising . . . The 1980 Outlook for Agriculture Sada L. Clarke
1979 Demand Deposits: A Comparison of the Behavior of Household and Business Balances Bruce J. Summers
1979 Farmland . . . An Increasingly Valuable Asset Sada L. Clarke
1979 Profitability of Minority Banks in 1977 James F. Tucker
1979 Forecasts 1979 William E. Cullison
1978 Seasonal Movements in Short-Term Yield Spreads Thomas A. Lawler
1978 LIFO Inventory Accounting: Effects on Corporate Profits, Inventory-Sales Ratios, and Inventory Investment Walter A. Varvel
1978 District Enjoys Strong Income Growth Aubrey N. Snellings
1978 The Farm Income and Debt Situation in Perspective Sada L. Clarke
1978 The Cause of the Dollar Depreciation Robert L. Hetzel
Thomas A. Lawler
1978 The Impact of Large Time Deposits on the Growth Rate of M2 Timothy Q. Cook
1978 Farm Financial and Credit Conditions Sada L. Clarke
1978 Business Forecasts 1978 Sandra D. Baker
Bruce J. Summers
1978 The Outlook for Agriculture in '78 Sada L. Clarke
1978 Short-Term Business Credit in the Recovery Bruce J. Summers
1977 Seasonal Adjustment of the Money Stock: Problems and policy Implications Thomas A. Lawler
1977 Private Domestic Investment in the Current Business Cycle Thomas A. Lawler
1977 Focusing on . . . Farm Financial and Credit Conditions Sada L. Clarke
1977 Forecasts 1977: A Persistent but Gradual Expansion William E. Cullison
1977 Cautiously Optimistic . . . the Outlook for Agriculture in 1977 Sada L. Clarke
1976 The Economic Outlook: Cause for Optimism? Aubrey N. Snellings
1976 Net Corporate Saving in the 1970's Timothy Q. Cook
1976 Stabilization Policy: Time for a Reappraisal? Aubrey N. Snellings
1976 Forecasts 1976: Recovery But No Bicentennial Boom William E. Cullison
1976 Outlook for Agriculture Optimistic Sada L. Clarke
1975 The Current Recession in Perspective Arthur F. Burns
1975 Farmers' Financial Position Sada L. Clarke
1975 Medical Care: Rising Cost in a Peculiar Marketplace James F. Tucker
1975 Agriculture: Outlook for 1975 is Cloudy Sada L. Clarke
1975 Financial Forecasts: 1975 B. Gayle Ennis
1975 Financial Highlights: 1974 B. Gayle Ennis
1975 Forecasts 1975 William E. Cullison
1974 Public Utility Pricing, Debt Financing, and Consumer Welfare Andrew Brimmer
1974 Forecasts 1974 William E. Cullison
1974 The Agricultural Outlook for '74 Sada L. Clarke
1974 Financial Forecasts: 1974 B. Gayle Ennis
1974 Financial Highlights of 1973 Philip H. Davidson
B. Gayle Ennis
Paper Title Author(s)
March 2014
Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search Guido Menzio
Nicholas Trachter
March 2014
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed (Revised August 2014) Thomas A. Lubik
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Felipe Schwartzman
January 2014
Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Marianna Kudlyak
John Mondragon
October 2013
Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty Christian Matthes
Josef Hollmayr
September 2013
The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy (Revised November 2014) Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Fernando Parro
Lorenzo Caliendo
August 2013
Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model David L. Fuller
Marianna Kudlyak
Damba Lkhagvasuren
July 2013
Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
April 2013
Competitors, Complementors, Parents and Places: Explaining Regional Agglomeration in the U.S. Auto Industry (Revised August 2014) Luis Cabral
Zhu Wang
Daniel Yi Xu
February 2013
International Reserves and Rollover Risk Javier Bianchi
Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
November 2012
Accounting for Unemployment: The Long and Short of It Andreas Hornstein
June 2012
Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters Marianna Kudlyak
Felipe Schwartzman
April 2012
Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data (Revised September 2014) Marianna Kudlyak
Damba Lkhagvasuren
Roman Sysuyev
April 2012
Sales, Inventories, and Real Interest Rates: A Century of Stylized Facts Luca Benati
Thomas A. Lubik
March 2012
Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
Francisco Roch
August 2011
Transition Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model: The Case of South Korea (Revised August 2013) Yongsung Chang
Andreas Hornstein
October 2010
Time to Produce and Emerging Market Crises (Revised July 2012) Felipe Schwartzman
August 2010
The Cyclical Price of Labor When Wages Are Smoothed Marianna Kudlyak
October 1987
The Economic Effects of Corporate Taxes in a Stochastic Growth Model Michael Dotsey
Essay Title Author(s)
January 2014
Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Christian Matthes
Tim Sablik
September 2013
Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy? Renee Haltom
Thomas A. Lubik
August 2013
Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement? Andreas Hornstein
Karl Rhodes
May 2013
Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy? Renee Haltom
October 2012
Explaining an Industry Cluster: The Case of U.S. Car Makers from 1895-1969 David A. Price
Zhu Wang
January 2012
Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle? R. Andrew Bauer
Betty Joyce Nash
November 2011
Recoveries From Recessions Associated With Banking Crises: How Does This One Compare? Juan Carlos Hatchondo
David A. Price
Jonathan Tompkins
October 2011
Fifth District Manufacturing and the Recession: An Analysis of Subsector Performance Robert Schnorbus
Judy Cox
August 2011
Is Stimulative Fiscal Policy More Effective at the Zero Lower Bound? Renee Haltom
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
December 2010
The Service Sector and the "Great Recession" Robert Schnorbus
Aileen Watson
October 2010
The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: The Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994) Marianna Kudlyak
David A. Price
Juan M. Sanchez
August 2010
When Did the Recession End? Renee Haltom
July 2010
How Useful Are Consumer Surveys as Macroeconomic Indicators? Roy H. Webb
October 2009
The Case for Direct Methods to Address CO2 Emissions and Other Negative Environmental Externalities Kartik B. Athreya
Renee Haltom
April 2009
What We Do and Don't Know about Discretionary Fiscal Policy Renee Haltom