National Economy

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was down slightly from 2.0 percent in the second quarter.
• Third quarter real GDP growth reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) government spending, and residential fixed investment and negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment and net exports.
• According to the advance estimate, real PCE growth in the third quarter was 2.9 percent. Consumption of durable goods increased 7.6 percent while consumption of nondurable goods grew 4.4 percent and spending on services rose 1.7 percent.
• Residential fixed investment increased 5.1 percent in the third quarter, which was the first positive growth rate reported since the fourth quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, nonresidential fixed investment declined for the second consecutive quarter, declining at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
• Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), inched up to 1.8 percent in October. However, year-over-year growth in core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.3 percent.
• Employers in the U.S. added 128,000 net new jobs to the economy in October. The majority of the net job gain was from service providing industries, with the most jobs being added in the month to leisure and hospitality. On a year-over-year basis, total payroll employment grew 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up in October to 3.6 percent and the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 63.3 percent.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Regional Economy

• Our most recent surveys suggested strengthening growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the Fifth District in October. The manufacturing composite diffusion index rose to 8 in October after a negative reading in September while, in the service sector, the overall revenues index rose to a reading of 6. Survey results suggested modest employment growth in manufacturing in October and slightly softer growth in service sector employment.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment decreased in the Fifth District in September as 2,000 jobs were lost, on net, in the month. Jobs were lost in every District jurisdiction except Maryland and North Carolina. The most jobs lost were in Virginia (14,700 jobs), while the most added were in Maryland (10,100 jobs).
• On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in the Fifth District grew 1.4 percent. Employment increased over the year in every District jurisdiction, with North Carolina registering the strongest growth at 2.3 percent and Virginia registering the weakest at 0.6 percent.
• The unemployment rate in the Fifth District inched down 0.1 percentage point to 3.5 percent in September, the same reading it had in September 2018. Fifth District unemployment rates ranged from 2.7 percent in Virginia to 5.4 percent in D.C. in September, and were slightly below August readings in all District jurisdictions except for West Virginia, where it ticked up 0.1 percentage point.
• From September 2018 to September 2019, home prices in the Fifth District grew 3.5 percent, level with the national growth rate. Home prices increased over the year in every jurisdiction. North Carolina saw the fastest year-over-year home price growth (4.4 percent), while the slowest growth was reported in Maryland (2.1 percent).

Sources: Snapshot, Regional Economy, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoreLogic

National Economy

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was down slightly from 2.0 percent in the second quarter.
• Third quarter real GDP growth reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) government spending, and residential fixed investment and negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment and net exports.
• According to the advance estimate, real PCE growth in the third quarter was 2.9 percent. Consumption of durable goods increased 7.6 percent while consumption of nondurable goods grew 4.4 percent and spending on services rose 1.7 percent.
• Residential fixed investment increased 5.1 percent in the third quarter, which was the first positive growth rate reported since the fourth quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, nonresidential fixed investment declined for the second consecutive quarter, declining at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
• Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), inched up to 1.8 percent in October. However, year-over-year growth in core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.3 percent.
• Employers in the U.S. added 128,000 net new jobs to the economy in October. The majority of the net job gain was from service providing industries, with the most jobs being added in the month to leisure and hospitality. On a year-over-year basis, total payroll employment grew 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up in October to 3.6 percent and the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 63.3 percent.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Regional Economy

• Our most recent surveys suggested strengthening growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the Fifth District in October. The manufacturing composite diffusion index rose to 8 in October after a negative reading in September while, in the service sector, the overall revenues index rose to a reading of 6. Survey results suggested modest employment growth in manufacturing in October and slightly softer growth in service sector employment.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment decreased in the Fifth District in September as 2,000 jobs were lost, on net, in the month. Jobs were lost in every District jurisdiction except Maryland and North Carolina. The most jobs lost were in Virginia (14,700 jobs), while the most added were in Maryland (10,100 jobs).
• On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in the Fifth District grew 1.4 percent. Employment increased over the year in every District jurisdiction, with North Carolina registering the strongest growth at 2.3 percent and Virginia registering the weakest at 0.6 percent.
• The unemployment rate in the Fifth District inched down 0.1 percentage point to 3.5 percent in September, the same reading it had in September 2018. Fifth District unemployment rates ranged from 2.7 percent in Virginia to 5.4 percent in D.C. in September, and were slightly below August readings in all District jurisdictions except for West Virginia, where it ticked up 0.1 percentage point.
• From September 2018 to September 2019, home prices in the Fifth District grew 3.5 percent, level with the national growth rate. Home prices increased over the year in every jurisdiction. North Carolina saw the fastest year-over-year home price growth (4.4 percent), while the slowest growth was reported in Maryland (2.1 percent).

Sources: Snapshot, Regional Economy, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoreLogic