At A Glance

Regional Economy

• Our most recent surveys reflected improving conditions in the manufacturing sector but continued weakness in the service sector in July. The manufacturing composite diffusion index rose from 0 in June to 10 in July, suggesting some growth. In the service sector, the overall revenues index rose from −27 in June to −14 in July but still indicated deteriorating conditions. Survey results for both sectors suggested that several firms decreased employment in July.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment in the Fifth District increased by 420,900 jobs in June. Jobs were added in every District jurisdiction. The most jobs were added in North Carolina (173,200 jobs), followed by South Carolina (72,500 jobs).
• On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in the Fifth District fell 7.6 percent. Employment decreased over the year in every District jurisdiction. The greatest percentage decrease in employment over the year was in Maryland (9.5 percent), followed by West Virginia (7.8 percent).
• The unemployment rate in the Fifth District fell to 8.2 percent in June, 2.9 percentage points below its reading from May and 4.7 percentage points above its reading from June 2019. Fifth District unemployment rates decreased in all jurisdictions in June and increased in all jurisdictions over the year. They ranged from 7.6 percent in North Carolina to 10.4 percent in the West Virginia.
• From June 2019 to June 2020, home prices in the Fifth District grew 4.6 percent, trailing national growth of 4.8 percent. Home prices increased over the year in every Fifth District jurisdiction. West Virginia saw the fastest year-over-year home price growth (8.9 percent), while the slowest growth was reported in Maryland (3.3 percent). 

Sources: Snapshot, Regional Economy, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoreLogic 

National Economy

• According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate of real gross domestic product, the U.S. economy declined at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This decline reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending), nonresidential and residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment, which were partially offset by positive contributions from government spending and net exports.
• According to the advance estimate, consumer spending (which accounts for more than two-thirds of real GDP) fell at an annual rate of 34.6 percent. Spending on services and nondurable goods contracted sharply in the second quarter. Spending on durable goods, on the other hand, declined only slightly as spending on motor vehicles and recreational goods/vehicles rose and mostly offset the declines in the remaining categories. Government spending increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent.
• Inflation, as measured by a year-over-year percent change in the consumer price index (CPI), ticked up slightly from 0.1 percent in May to 0.6 percent in June. Price inflation for core goods and services, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged at 1.2 percent in June.
• Employers in the U.S. added 4.8 million jobs in June after adding 2.7 million jobs in May. Despite the gains in May and June, total payroll employment remained considerably below the pre-pandemic level. Nevertheless, the largest job gains in recent months have come from firms in the leisure and hospitality industry, which is where the majority of the job losses in March and April occurred. 

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics