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Economic Brief

Dec. 6, 2018

Richmond Fed Report Addresses Recent Yield Curve Concerns

Yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions, so the recent flattening of the yield curve has fueled speculation that another recession might be imminent. But the latest Economic Brief shows how the low term premium (compensation for holding long-term rather than short-term bonds) could mean that yield curve inversions are more likely even if the risk of recession has not increased.

The Richmond Fed’s Economic Brief series provides web-exclusive essays on current economic issues and trends. Sign up to receive an email notification when a new essay is posted.

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