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Economic Brief

April 4, 2019

Richmond Fed Takes Economic Analysis Beyond Business Cycles

The Richmond Fed’s April Economic Brief discusses a new way of analyzing the ups and downs of the U.S. economy.

When analyzing macroeconomic data, it helps to separate long-term trends from business cycle fluctuations and medium-term movements. So Richmond Fed researchers have applied a new way of analyzing inflation, unemployment, GDP growth and interest rates over cycles of different durations. Their main finding is that GDP growth and the unemployment rate play by different rules in that they are determined by long-term and medium-term forces, respectively.

The Richmond Fed’s Economic Brief series provides web-exclusive essays on economic issues and trends. Sign up to receive an email notification when a new essay is posted.

As part of our nation’s central bank, the Richmond Fed is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks working together with the Board of Governors to support a healthy economy and deliver on our mission to foster economic stability and strength. We connect with community and business leaders across the Fifth Federal Reserve District — including the Carolinas, District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, and most of West Virginia — to monitor economic conditions, address issues facing our communities, and share this information with monetary and financial policymakers. We also work with banks to ensure they are operating safely and soundly, supply financial institutions with currency that’s fit for distribution, and provide a safe and efficient way to transfer funds through our nation’s payments system.


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