Locally, roughly 31 percent of the counties in Fifth District states had a 2014 child dependency ratio higher than the national ratio. The share was even higher for the 2014 old-age dependency ratio with roughly 79 percent of counties exceeding the national ratio.
Within the Fifth District, Williamsburg City, Virginia, and Union County, North Carolina, had the lowest and highest child dependency ratios at 14.3 percent and 47.5 percent, respectively. For old-age dependency ratios, Radford City, Virginia, and Lancaster County, Virginia, had the lowest and highest ratios at 10.0 percent and 70.6 percent, respectively.
Looking more closely at the child dependency ratio map, there is a regional cluster of counties with child dependency ratios of greater than 40 percent starting south of Raleigh, North Carolina, and extending into Dillon County, South Carolina. This area’s concentration of military installations (Fort Bragg Army Base, Camp Mackall Army Base and Pope Air Force Base) as well as poultry and hog farms and processing plants may explain the clustering because the workforces of these industries tend to attract workers who are of child-bearing age or already have children.
On the old-age dependency ratio map, counties with a ratio greater than 40 percent are largely located in rural areas such as the mountains of Virginia and North Carolina or the coasts of South Carolina and Maryland. They also tend to be less populous with a 2014 median total population of 17,614 people. With their rural locations and low populations, the local economies of these areas may be at risk as the working age population grows older without the arrival of younger individuals either through birth or migration to replace them in the workforce.
As the Baby Boom generation2 approaches retirement, the national trend for the old-age dependency ratio is expected to exceed 40 percent by 2060.3 Given the large share of Fifth District counties that already exceed the national old-age dependency ratio, this aging trend may have major implications for labor force participation, workforce development, government benefits and state management within the District.