Economic Growth & Business Cycles

We examine differences in living standards between countries and across time, and potential explanations for those differences. We also look at what causes fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Recent papers have dealt with the effects of differing fiscal policies and the economics of sovereign defaults.

First Quarter 2014

A Business Cycle Analysis of Debt and Equity Financing

Marios Karabarbounis, Patrick Macnamara and Roisin McCord

Third Quarter 2011

A Perspective on Modern Business Cycle Theory

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

Fourth Quarter 2010

News Shocks and Business Cycles

Per Krusell and Alisdair McKay

Summer 2005

Oil Prices and Consumer Spending

Yash P. Mehra and Jon D. Petersen

Fall 2003

Boom and Bust in Telecommunications

Elise A. Couper, John P. Hejkal and Alexander L. Wolman

Fall 1993

Is All Government Capital Productive?

Mary G. Finn

Jan/Feb, 1992

Evidence of Improved Inventory Control

Dan M. Bechter and Stephen Stanley

Sep/Oct, 1990

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending

Ching-Sheng Mao

Jul/Aug, 1989

Macroeconomic Price Indexes

Roy H. Webb and Rob Willemse

Jan/Feb, 1985

Forecasts 1985

Jan/Feb, 1984

Forecasts 1984

Jan/Feb, 1983

Forecasts 1983

Jan/Feb, 1983

The 1983 Outlook for Agriculture

Sada L. Clarke

Jan/Feb, 1982

Forecasts 1982

Jan/Feb, 1982

The Agricultural Outlook for '82

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1981

1980: A Difficult Year for Farmers

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1979

Farmland . . . An Increasingly Valuable Asset

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1979

Profitability of Minority Banks in 1977

James F. Tucker

Jul/Aug, 1978

Seasonal Movements in Short-Term Yield Spreads

Thomas A. Lawler

May/Jun, 1978

District Enjoys Strong Income Growth

Aubrey N. Snellings

May/Jun, 1978

The Cause of the Dollar Depreciation

Robert L. Hetzel and Thomas A. Lawler

Mar/Apr, 1978

Farm Financial and Credit Conditions

Sada L. Clarke

Jan/Feb, 1978

Business Forecasts 1978

Sandra D. Baker and Bruce J. Summers

Jan/Feb, 1978

The Outlook for Agriculture in '78

Sada L. Clarke

Jan/Feb, 1978

Short-Term Business Credit in the Recovery

Bruce J. Summers

Jul/Aug, 1976

The Economic Outlook: Cause for Optimism?

Aubrey N. Snellings

Mar/Apr, 1976

Stabilization Policy: Time for a Reappraisal?

Aubrey N. Snellings

Jan/Feb, 1976

Outlook for Agriculture Optimistic

Sada L. Clarke

May/Jun, 1975

The Current Recession in Perspective

Arthur F. Burns

May/Jun, 1975

Farmers' Financial Position

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1975

Agriculture: Outlook for 1975 is Cloudy

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1975

Financial Forecasts: 1975

B. Gayle Ennis

Jan/Feb, 1975

Financial Highlights: 1974

B. Gayle Ennis

Mar/Apr , 1974

The Agricultural Outlook for '74

Sada L. Clarke

Mar/Apr, 1974

Financial Forecasts: 1974

B. Gayle Ennis

Jan/Feb, 1974

Financial Highlights of 1973

Philip H. Davidson and B. Gayle Ennis

February 2017, No. 17-04

Rethinking Detroit

Raymond E. Owens, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

January 2014, No. 14-01

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mondragon

September 2013, No. 13-14R

The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy (Revised July 2017)

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Fernando Parro and Lorenzo Caliendo

August 2013, No. 13-11

Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model

David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren

April 2010, No. 10-05

Quantifying the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Development

Jeremy Greenwood, Juan M. Sanchez and Cheng Wang

June 2009, No. 09-9

Unemployment Insurance with a Hidden Labor Market

Fernando Álvarez-Parra and Juan M. Sanchez

February 2009, No. 09-1

Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets

Gabriel Cuadra, Juan M. Sanchez and Horacio Sapriza

August 2003, No. 03-10

Optimal Public Investment with and without Government Commitment

Marina Azzimonti, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jorge Soares

August 1999, No. 99-6

Structure from Shocks

May 1997, No. 97-7 (Published Nov. 1994, Revised Feb. 1998)

(S,s) Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium

Jonas D.M. Fisher and Andreas Hornstein

January 1994, No. 94-2

Early Development

Marvin Goodfriend and John McDermott

November 1990, No. 91-2

External Increasing Returns, Short-Lived Agents and Long-Lived Waste

A. Andrew John, R. Pecchenino, D. Schimmelpfennig and Stacey L. Schreft

March 1990, No. 90-4

The Competitiveness of Rural County Manufacturing During a Period of Dollar Appreciation

Dan M. Bechter and Christine Chmura

January 2014, No. 14-01

Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

September 2013, No. 13-09

Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy?

Renee Haltom and Thomas A. Lubik

May 2013, No. 13-05

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy?

Renee Haltom

January 2012, No. 12-01

Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle?

R. Andrew Bauer and Betty Joyce Nash

December 2010, No. 10-12

The Service Sector and the "Great Recession"

Robert Schnorbus and Aileen Watson

August 2010, No. 10-08

When Did the Recession End?

Renee Haltom

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