Our Team
John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist
John O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist in the Research Department. Before joining the Richmond Fed in September 2020, O'Trakoun was a senior economist at Ford Motor Company, where he analyzed and forecasted economic trends and their impact on the automotive industry.
-
Academic Publications
Business Economics, Vol. 58, December 2023: 205-223
John O'Trakoun
Previous Version: Working Paper, November 2023, No. 23-10Business Economics, Vol. 57, 2022: 95–110John O'Trakoun
Business Economics, Vol. 53, January 2018: 14-24John O'Trakoun
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 26, 2017: 552-565John O'Trakoun
International Finance, Vol. 18, Winter 2015: 299-320John O'Trakoun
-
Bank Publications
Economic Brief, September 2022, No. 22-38
The relationship between the producer price index and consumer price indexes has not always been clear.
John O'Trakoun and David Ramachandran
Economic Brief, August 2022, No. 22-31Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.
Conner Mulloy, John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Economic Brief, October 2021, No. 21-33Since 1980, survey forecasts have been modestly and consistently higher on average than the forecasts derived from a signal extraction model.
John Mullin, John O'Trakoun and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
-
Working Papers
November 2023, No. 23-10
John O'Trakoun introduces the "trimmed persistence PCE," a new measure of core inflation in which component prices are weighted according to the time-varying persistence of their price changes.
John O'Trakoun
-
Blog Posts
Macro Minute, October 22, 2024
A low inventory of houses on the market, caused by factors such as a need for more construction and homeowners discouraged from selling, continues to push home prices higher.
John O'Trakoun and Sheharyar Bokhari
Macro Minute, October 8, 2024Looking into what types of workers are having difficulty finding a job sheds light on the recent rise in the unemployment rate.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 27, 2024Could July's slump in housing starts be attributed to severe weather, such as Hurricane Beryl that made landfall on July 8? Data suggests the national impact may be small.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 20, 2024In this week's post, we look at some of the survey evidence that consumers are starting to pull back on spending.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 13, 2024When considering the outlook for future housing services prices, examining the ratio against home prices and new tenant rents might indicate what's to come. What might the data be telling us?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 6, 2024With a newly developed index of payroll growth dispersion, the author shows how it differs from the BLS payroll diffusion index and discusses some implications from July's employment report.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 16, 2024With sentiment about the labor market appearing to soften, we explore some ways to visualize the breadth of recent jobs growth across industries.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 2, 2024This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, June 25, 2024Would Fed rate cuts improve the outlook for homebuyers? This post examines the potential connection between policy rates and housing affordability.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, June 18, 2024The stock market is way up, and households know it. A consumption-supporting wealth effect, an overvalued stock market, and expecting strong future output growth are three possible causes.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 21, 2024An increase in multifamily housing supply could be contributing to a softening in rents, but historical patterns suggest an upward pressure on rent growth could be in store.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 14, 2024Are price increases being experienced across many categories, or is inflation mostly driven by a few stubborn categories? The PCE price index seems to suggest pricing pressure remains broad.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 7, 2024Anxiety about possible job loss appears to be associated with actual changes in worker behavior, lowering the frequency of job switching in the economy.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 16, 2024In this week's post, we rank districts according to how similar they are to the overall U.S. in terms of the industry composition of their GDP.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 2, 2024There's a diverging trend in the recovering housing market. While new single-family housing construction is increasing, multi-family housing unit construction is on the decline.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 26, 2024Findings from UM's Survey of Consumers suggest that being affiliated with the political party in power makes consumers more engaged and, in turn, more informed about the state of the economy.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 5, 2024Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 27, 2024Since 2021, there has been a large increase in both the size of the population with disabilities and the disabled labor force participation rate. Expansion of remote work opportunities seems to have contributed to this growth.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 20, 2024The increasing share of foreign-born immigrant workers is an important influence on today's labor market landscape. The outlook is highly uncertain if this trend will continue.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 13, 2024Due to an increase in labor productivity, strong wage growth is coexisting with encouraging signs of inflation in recent readings. However, productivity growth has historically shown to be volatile.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 6, 2024A significant gap has emerged between the growth rate of rent CPI and new renters. An increase in tenant lease renewal and young adults living at home could be related.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 16, 2024Data from the monthly Construction Spending Report point to a sustained and robust pace of real private construction spending toward the end of 2023.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 9, 2024Labor force participation among older workers is on the rise. Concerns about the sustainability of their finances may explain this happening.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 28, 2023The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 14, 2023This post provides a look at where retail inventory-to-sales ratios may hint at discounts for price-conscious consumers this holiday season.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 7, 2023Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 17, 2023How does the latest monthly data affect progress versus the Fed's long-run 2 percent average inflation target?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 10, 2023Real disposable personal income growth has been negative for the past three months following 11 consecutive months of gains.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 3, 2023In this week's post, we explore alternative series that might have been used to measure the strength of consumer demand in the absence of official measures of personal consumption expenditure (PCE).
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, September 26, 2023In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, September 5, 2023Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 15, 2023In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 8, 2023As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?
Erin Henry and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 1, 2023How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 11, 2023While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, June 27, 2023Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, June 20, 2023In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 30, 2023April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 16, 2023While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 09, 2023Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 18, 2023Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 11, 2023Smaller businesses' demand for workers has made up a considerable part of the surge in job openings observed over the past two years. But some data suggest that surge is beginning to wane.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 04, 2023Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 28, 2023Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 7, 2023This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 28, 2023How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 14, 2023Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.
Julian Kikuchi and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 07, 2023Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 17, 2023Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 10, 2023For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, December 6, 2022For the month of December, Macro Minute will be on hiatus. We'll resume our normal programming in January 2023.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 22, 2022This year, inflation will probably feature in some of conversations over Thanksgiving dinner. To prepare you for this onslaught, this post will take stock of how inflation has gobbled up part of the holiday budget.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 15, 2022How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?
John O'Trakoun and Brennan Merone
Macro Minute, October 18, 2022As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 4, 2022Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, September 27, 2022For homebuyers who are still in the market despite higher prices and borrowing rates, their options may be limited as homebuilders focus on clearing backlogs rather than starting new construction.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 16, 2022Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 9, 2022The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.
Brennan Merone and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 2, 2022While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 12, 2022While some measures of inflation show modest signs of improvement, trimmed mean inflation tells another story.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 5, 2022Recent JOLTS data on job openings, hires and separations may shed some light on establishment size and the challenges of snagging new employees.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, June 28, 2022The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.
Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 31, 2022For decades, economists have been looking for leading indicators that can signal the future direction of the overall economy. In today's post, we look at a few of these indicators and what they suggest for growth going forward.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 24, 2022Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 17, 2022Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, May 10, 2022The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 12, 2022A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?
Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, April 5, 2022Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 29, 2022While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, March 22, 2022Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 22, 2022Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 15, 2022While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 8, 2022There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.
Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, February 1, 2022The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 11, 2022While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, January 4, 2022A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, December 28, 2021The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, December 21, 2021Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 30, 2021Americans have spent less and saved more during most of the COVID-19 pandemic. What will happen to these accumulated savings is an open question.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 16, 2021Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, November 9, 2021In the post-COVID-19 labor market, there is still an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, expressed as the Beveridge curve. But it takes a lot more openings to get to the same level of unemployment. This shift suggests a high degree of labor market mismatch.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 19, 2021Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 12, 2021Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, October 5, 2021Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, September 28, 2021How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, September 7, 2021There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 31, 2021The housing market has boomed during the pandemic, but data over the past few months have been more mixed. Is this bumpiness the result of weaker demand or lower supply?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 17, 2021Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 10, 2021The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, August 3, 2021Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 13, 2021The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.
John O'Trakoun
Macro Minute, July 6, 2021Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?
John O'Trakoun