Data & Results
What Landing? CFOs’ Economic Outlook Improves in First Quarter of 2024
Financial decision-makers notably increased their expectations for real GDP growth in 2024, and their optimism about the overall U.S. economy also increased.
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Revisions to The CFO Survey Data
CFO Survey data from Q2 2020 to Q4 2023 have been revised in accordance with an annual revision process. Revised historical data are available for download. Comparisons of revised and previously published estimates are also available.
Historical special question results are unrevised and available on archived quarterly results pages.
For more information on the annual data revision process, please refer to The CFO Survey Methodology.
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CFO Optimism
When asked between February 20 and March 8 to rate optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale from 0 to 100, the average rating from CFOs was 60.6, up from 58.1 in the fourth quarter. Optimism about their own firm’s prospects remained higher than economic optimism, at an average of 68.5, up from 67.5 in the fourth quarter.
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CFOs’ Most Pressing Concerns
For the third consecutive quarter CFOs ranked monetary policy as a top business concern. Labor quality and availability was also top of mind for CFOs.
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CFOs’ Expectations for Their Firms’ Performance
Over half of firms expect their price growth in 2024 to remain above pre-COVID levels, suggesting that for many firms, pricing pressures remain above what they consider normal.
CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years 2024 2025 2023 2024 Revenue 5.8%
(5.0%)8.1%
(5.0%)3.7%
(5.0%)6.2%
(5.0%)Price 4.1%
(3.0%)4.7%
(3.0%)4.3%
(5.0%)4.1%
(3.0%)Unit Cost 4.5%
(3.0%)4.2%
(3.0%)5.4%
(5.0%)4.5%
(4.0%)Employment (full-time) 5.0%
(2.1%)3.6%
(2.5%)4.6%
(2.2%)3.4%
(2.7%)Wage Bill 5.7%
(4.0%)5.2%
(4.0%)6.0%
(5.0%)5.3%
(4.0%)Note: Q1 2024 data in the table reflect results for 390 to 429 U.S. firms responding to the Q1 2024 survey (February 20 – March 8, 2024). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. The share of firms that increased spending (excluding capital expenditures) in the past three months rose to 47 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from last quarter’s survey.
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CFOs’ Expectations for the Aggregate Economy
CFOs revised upward their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 2.2 percent from 1.7 percent in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability respondents assign to negative year-ahead economic growth fell to 10.1 percent from 13.5 percent last quarter.
Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Weighted Mean 2.2% 1.7% Weighted Median 2.0% 1.7% Probability of Negative Growth
(mean share of probability on bins below zero)10.1% 13.5% Note: Q1 2024 data in the table reflect results for 398 U.S. firms responding to the Q1 2024 survey (February 20 – March 8, 2024) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. Expectations for Stock Market Performance, by Response Quarter Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Expected Annual S&P 500 Returns Over Next 12 Months and Next 10 Years 12 Mos
(N=302)10 Yrs
(N=308)12 Mos
(N=295)10 Yrs
(N=311)Worst Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be less than): -2.8% 3.3% -4.5% 3.5% Most Likely Case 6.7% 9.1% 5.3% 9.0% Best Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be greater than): 12.5% 14.0% 10.9% 13.6% Note: The table shows responses from firms that indicated they closely follow the stock market. Results from the Q4 2023 survey (November 14 – December 1, 2023) are shown for comparison. Responses are unweighted and winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. Please see The CFO Survey Methodology for further information.Source: Duke University, FRB Richmond and FRB Atlanta, The CFO Survey – Q1 2024 (February 20 – March 8, 2024) -
Semiannual Questions on Investment
The first quarter CFO Survey included a semiannual investment module to ask participants about their recent structures and equipment investment decisions. The share of firms planning investments over the next six months edged slightly higher compared to the third quarter of last year.
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Special Questions on Automation
The first quarter survey asked firms about implementing software, equipment, and/or other technology to automate tasks previously completed by employees.
Among firms that automated tasks over the last 12 months, close to 40 percent noted that automation caused them to either slow the rate of new employee hiring, to decline to fill open positions, or to lay off employees.
For additional discussion of these results, visit our Research & Commentary section.
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Special Questions on Firm Activity Relative to Norms
To better understand how firm activity compares to pre-pandemic norms, the CFO survey asked firms to compare their 2024 expected growth in revenue, prices, and employment to growth rates prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Over half of firms expect their price growth in 2024 to remain above pre-COVID levels.
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