Data & Results
March 25, 2026
The outlook for the U.S. economy improved among financial decision-makers in the first quarter of 2026. Despite concerns about tariff policy and uncertainty, expectations for U.S. GDP growth and business revenue growth over the next year remained solid.
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Key Results Summary
| CFO Optimism | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Optimism about own company (0 to 100) | 70.2 | 69.6 |
| Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100) | 61.7 | 60.3 |
| Note: Q1 2026 data in the table reflect results for 471-473 U.S. firms responding to the Q1 2026 survey (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026). Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 602-603 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted. | ||
| CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Revenue | 5.8% (5.0%) |
7.0% (5.0%) |
6.9% (5.0%) |
7.4% (5.0%) |
| Price | 3.6% (3.0%) |
3.6% (3.0%) |
4.3% (3.5%) |
4.0% (3.5%) |
| Unit Cost | 3.5% (3.0%) |
3.3% (3.0%) |
5.1% (4.0%) |
4.4% (3.0%) |
| Employment (full-time) | 2.1% (1.6%) |
2.4% (1.4%) |
4.3% (1.5%) |
2.4% (1.7%) |
| Average Wage | 4.0% (3.0%) |
3.8% (3.0%) |
4.3% (3.5%) |
4.0% (3.0%) |
| Note: Q1 2026 data in the table reflect results for 415 to 466 U.S. firms responding to the Q1 2026 survey (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026). Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 552 to 598 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Average Wage are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. | ||||
| CFOs' Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted Mean | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Weighted Median | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Probability of Negative Growth | 11.2% | 13.3% |
| Note: Q1 2026 data in the table reflect results for 441 U.S. firms responding to Q1 2026 survey (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison. Responses are weighted by sales revenue. | ||
Please refer to the full results for Q1 2026 and The CFO Survey Methodology for more information.
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