Data & Results
The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved somewhat in the third quarter of 2025, as uncertainty declined. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices and business performance continued to weigh on firms.
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Key Results Summary
| CFO Optimism | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Optimism about own company (0 to 100) | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100) | 62.9 | 60.9 |
Note: Q3 2025 data in the table reflect results for 525 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 – Sept. 5, 2025). Results from the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 500 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted. | ||
| CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Revenue | 7.8% (5.0%) | 7.2% (5.0%) | 5.4% (5.0%) | 7.1% (5.0%) |
| Price | 4.6% (3.0%) | 4.1% (3.0%) | 4.8% (3.5%) | 4.3% (3.0%) |
| Unit Cost | 4.7% (4.0%) | 4.3% (3.0%) | 5.2% (4.0%) | 4.4% (3.0%) |
| Employment (full-time) | 2.8% (1.2%) | 2.2% (1.3%) | 2.5% (0.8%) | 2.6% (1.4%) |
| Average Wage | 4.3% (3.5%) | 4.1% (3.0%) | 4.0% (3.0%) | 3.9% (3.0%) |
Note: Q3 2025 data in the table reflect results for 483 to 519 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 –Sept. 5, 2025). Results from the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 451 to 496 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Average Wage are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. | ||||
| CFOs' Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted Mean | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Weighted Median | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Probability of Negative Growth | 13.6% | 22.7% |
Note Q3 2025 data in the table reflect results for 487 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 – Sept. 5, 2025) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 465 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. | ||
Please refer to the full results for Q3 2025 and The CFO Survey Methodology for more information.
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