Data & Results
Dec. 17, 2025
CFOs remain concerned about tariffs and anticipate price increases of more than 3 percent in 2026, while expecting moderate growth in employment and overall economic activity. Widespread increases in AI-related spending are expected, particularly among small firms.
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Key Results Summary
| CFO Optimism | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Optimism about own company (0 to 100) | 69.9 | 70.5 |
| Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100) | 60.2 | 62.9 |
| Note: Q4 2025 data in the table reflect results for 548 U.S. firms responding to the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025). Results from the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 – Sept. 5, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 525 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted. | ||
| CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Revenue | 7.0% (5.0%) | 7.6% (5.0%) | 7.8% (5.0%) | 7.2% (5.0%) |
| Price | 4.5% (3.9%) | 4.2% (3.5%) | 4.6% (3.0%) | 4.1% (3.0%) |
| Unit Cost | 5.4% (4.0%) | 4.5% (3.0%) | 4.7% (4.0%) | 4.3% (3.0%) |
| Employment (full-time) | 3.9% (1.6%) | 2.4% (1.7%) | 2.8% (1.2%) | 2.2% (1.3%) |
| Average Wage | 4.3% (3.5%) | 4.1% (3.0%) | 4.3% (3.5%) | 4.1% (3.0%) |
| Note: Q4 2025 data in the table reflect results for 503 to 544 U.S. firms responding to the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025). Results from the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 – Sept. 5, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 484 to 520 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Average Wage are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. | ||||
| CFOs' Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted Mean | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Weighted Median | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Probability of Negative Growth | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Note Q4 2025 data in the table reflect results for 504 U.S. firms responding to Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q3 2025 survey (Aug. 18 – Sept. 5, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 489 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. | ||
Please refer to the full results for Q4 2025 and The CFO Survey Methodology for more information.
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