Data & Results

Dec. 20, 2023

Financial decision-makers were slightly more optimistic about the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter, and many firms expect their price growth next year to remain above pre-COVID levels.

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Key Results Summary

CFO OptimismQ4 2023Q3 2023
Optimism about own company (0 to 100)67.367.8
Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100)58.056.2
Note: Q4 2023 data in the table reflect results for 443 U.S. firms responding to the Q4 2023 survey (November 14 – December 1, 2023). Results from the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 323 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted.
CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response QuarterQ4  2023Q3 2023
Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years2023202420232024
Revenue3.8%
(5.0%)
6.0%
(5.0%)
3.6%
(5.0%)
6.7%
(5.0%)
Price4.3%
(5.0%)
4.1%
(3.0%)
5.8%
(5.0%)
4.2%
(3.0%)
Unit Cost5.7%
(5.0%)
4.7%
(4.0%)
6.9%
(5.0%)
5.1%
(4.0%)
Employment (full-time)5.1%
(2.2%)
3.3%
(2.7%)
0.6%
(0.0%)
3.9%
(2.2%)
Wage Bill6.0%
(5.0%)
5.3%
(4.0%)
5.9%
(4.5%)
5.4%
(4.0%)
Note: Q4 2023 data in the table reflect results for 400 to 439 U.S. firms responding to the Q4 2023 survey (November 14 – December 1, 2023). Results from the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 276 to 318 firms) and have been revised to incorporate additional respondents that were previously missing 2022 revenue and employment levels. Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values.
Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response QuarterQ4 2023Q3 2023
Weighted Mean1.7%1.3%
Weighted Median1.7%1.4%
Probability of Negative Growth
(mean share of probability on bins below zero)
13.5%19.6%
Note: Q4 2023 data in the table reflect results for 405 U.S. firms responding to the Q4 2023 survey (November 14 – December 1, 2023) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 282 firms) and have been revised to incorporate additional respondents that were previously missing 2022 revenue levels. Responses are weighted by sales revenue.
 

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