Data & Results
June 25, 2025
Financial decision-makers’ outlooks deteriorated in the second quarter of 2025, amid record concern about the impact of trade policy. Forty percent of respondents indicated tariffs and trade policy were a pressing concern for their firm this quarter, a record share of respondents citing the same concern going back to the second quarter of 2020.
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Key Results Summary
| CFO Optimism | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Optimism about own company (0 to 100) | 68.1 | 68.4 |
| Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100) | 60.9 | 62.1 |
| Note: Q2 2025 data in the table reflect results for 500 U.S. firms responding to the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025). Results from the Q1 2025 survey (February 18 – March 7, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 399 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted. | ||
| CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Revenue | 5.4% (5.0%) | 7.1% (5.0%) | 6.8% (5.0%) | 7.2% (5.0%) |
| Price | 4.8% (3.5%) | 4.3% (3.0%) | 3.5% (3.0%) | 3.4% (3.0%) |
| Unit Cost | 5.2% (4.0%) | 4.4% (3.0%) | 3.9% (3.5%) | 3.5% (3.0%) |
| Employment (full-time) | 2.5% (0.8%) | 2.6% (1.4%) | 2.5% (1.1%) | 3.0% (1.7%) |
| Average Wage | 4.0% (3.0%) | 3.9% (3.0%) | 4.2% (4.0%) | 4.1% (3.5%) |
| Note: Q2 2025 data in the table reflect results for 451 to 496 U.S. firms responding to the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025). Results from the Q1 2025 survey (February 18 – March 7, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 349 to 390 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Average Wage are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. | ||||
| CFOs' Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted Mean | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| Weighted Median | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| Probability of Negative Growth | 22.7% | 14.5% |
| Note: Q2 2025 data in the table reflect results for 465 U.S. firms responding to the Q2 2025 survey (May 19 – June 6, 2025) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q1 2025 survey (February 18 – March 7, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 374 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. | ||
Please refer to the full results for Q2 2025 and The CFO Survey Methodology for more information.
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