Data & Results
Sept. 27, 2023
Financial decision-makers ranked monetary policy as their top business concern, as higher interest rates have curtailed spending at approximately 40 percent of companies. The CFO outlook is brighter for 2024, however, with higher revenues and hiring expected next year, along with smaller increases in prices and input costs.
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Key Results Summary
| CFO Optimism | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Optimism about own company (0 to 100) | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Optimism about the U.S. economy (0 to 100) | 56.2 | 54.8 |
| Note: Q3 2023 data in the table reflect results for 323 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023). Results from the Q2 2023 survey (May 24 – June 9, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 332 firms). Mean optimism values are unweighted. | ||
| CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Revenue | 3.0% (5.0%) | 6.5% (5.0%) | 2.9% (5.0%) | 6.7% (5.0%) |
| Price | 5.9% (5.0%) | 4.3% (3.5%) | 4.6% (3.8%) | 5.0% (3.0%) |
| Unit Cost | 6.8% (4.5%) | 5.0% (4.0%) | 6.8% (5.0%) | 5.7% (3.0%) |
| Employment (full-time) | 1.1% (0.0%) | 3.9% (2.2%) | 6.1% (2.5%) | 2.7% (1.5%) |
| Wage Bill | 5.9% (4.5%) | 5.4% (4.0%) | 6.5% (5.0%) | 5.9% (4.0%) |
| Note: Q3 2023 data in the table reflect results for 250 to 317 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023). Results from the Q2 2023 survey (May 24 – June 9, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 295 to 326 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. | ||||
| Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted Mean | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Weighted Median | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Probability of Negative Growth (mean share of probability on bins below zero) | 18.9% | 24.5% |
| Note: Q3 2023 data in the table reflect results for 266 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2023 survey (August 21 – September 8, 2023) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q2 2023 survey (May 24 – June 9, 2023) are shown for comparison (for 298 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. | ||
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