CFOs Remain Optimistic for 2024
CFOs remain largely optimistic about their economic trajectory as they plan for the last quarter of 2024. Despite increased concerns around the health of the overall economy and some uncertainty related to the upcoming election, respondents said they still expect employment and revenue growth in the third quarter.
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CFO Optimism
In the CFO Survey that closed on Sept. 6, about 450 financial executives reported little change in optimism about the economy or about their own firm prospects.
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CFOs’ Most Pressing Concerns
Monetary policy remained the top concern for CFOs for the fifth consecutive quarter. However, concerns about inflation dropped quite a bit since the second quarter survey.
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CFOs’ Expectations for Their Firms’ Performance
The third quarter CFO Survey shows that employment expectations jumped slightly, while revenue, price, unit cost, and wage bill expectations all decreased.
CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years 2024 2025 2024 2025 Revenue 4.9%
(3.6%)7.1%
(5.0%)5.5%
(5.0%)8.0%
(5.1%)Price 3.5%
(3.0%)4.0%
(3.0%)4.2%
(3.0%)4.8%
(3.0%)Unit Cost 4.1%
(4.0%)4.0%
(3.0%)4.3%
(3.0%)4.2%
(3.0%)Employment (full-time) 5.6%
(1.5%)3.2%
(2.2%)5.3%
(0.8%)4.0%
(2.4%)Wage Bill 5.3%
(4.0%)5.2%
(4.0%)6.4%
(4.0%)5.4%
(4.0%)Note: Q3 2024 data in the table reflect results for 426 to 472 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2024 survey (August 19 – September 6, 2024). Results from the Q2 2024 survey (May 13 – June 3, 2024) are shown for comparison (for 391 to 440 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. The share of firms that increased spending (excluding capital expenditures) in the past three months declined to 44.6 percent from 46.1 percent in the previous quarter.
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CFOs’ Expectations for the Aggregate Economy
CFOs’ expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters remained essentially unchanged from the prior survey.
Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Weighted Mean 1.9% 1.9% Weighted Median 2.0% 1.9% Probability of Negative Growth
(mean share of probability on bins below zero)12.6% 12.6% Note: Q3 2024 data in the table reflect results for 442 U.S. firms responding to the Q3 2024 survey (August 19 – September 6, 2024). Results from the Q2 2024 survey (May 13 – June 3, 2024) are shown for comparison (for 409 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. Expectations for Stock Market Performance, by Response Quarter Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Expected Annual S&P 500 Returns Over Next 12 Months and Next 10 Years 12 Mos
(N=332)10 Yrs
(N=340)12 Mos
(N=298)10 Yrs
(N=308)Worst Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be less than): -3.9% 3.4% -3.5% 3.4% Most Likely Case 6.4% 9.5% 6.2% 9.4% Best Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be greater than): 12.5% 14.6% 11.9% 14.2% Note: The table shows responses from firms that indicated they closely follow the stock market. Results from the Q2 2024 survey (May 13 – June 3, 2024) are shown for comparison. Responses are unweighted and winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. Please see The CFO Survey Methodology for further information.
Source: Duke University, FRB Richmond and FRB Atlanta, The CFO Survey – Q3 2024 (August 19 – September 6, 2024) -
Semiannual Questions on Investment
The third quarter CFO Survey included a semiannual investment module to ask participants about their recent structures and equipment investment decisions. The share of firms intending to invest in the next six months did not change much since the first quarter of the year. In the new survey, more than a third of firms responded that they intend to invest in structures in the next six months and two-thirds intend to invest in equipment.
Although most firms report that they are investing to repair or replace existing infrastructure, firms also reported increasing capacity and offering new products or services.
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Special Questions on Election Uncertainty
About 30 percent of firms reported postponing, scaling down, or canceling investment plans due to uncertainty around the upcoming election. Firms listed regulatory and monetary policy as the top policy topics most important to their firms.
For additional discussion of these results, visit our Research & Commentary section.
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Special Questions on Capital Expenditures
When asked, about a quarter of firms said that access to or cost of financing would constrain their capital spending in the next 12 months — a response that was more common among small firms than large firms.
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