Data & Results
U.S. Companies Ramp Up Automation and AI as Inflation Persists
Nearly two-thirds of CFOs say their companies have a strategic priority to automate tasks typically performed by employees. Among firms that plan to automate in the next 12 months, a majority expect to implement AI to perform a wide range of tasks.
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CFO Optimism
When asked between May 13 and June 3 to rate optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale from 0 to 100, the average rating from CFOs was 60.6, remaining unchanged from the level of optimism in the first quarter of the year.
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CFOs’ Most Pressing Concerns
Monetary policy remained the top concern for CFOs for the fourth consecutive quarter. Concerns about labor availability abated somewhat in the second quarter, while concerns about inflation increased as a share of total mentions.
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CFOs’ Expectations for Their Firms’ Performance
The second quarter results show that wage bill expectations jumped slightly, as did employment expectations.
CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years 2024 2025 2024 2025 Revenue 5.5%
(5.0%)8.0%
(5.1%)5.8%
(5.0%)8.0%
(5.0%)Price 4.2%
(3.0%)4.8%
(3.0%)4.1%
(3.0%)4.7%
(3.0%)Unit Cost 4.3%
(3.0%)4.2%
(3.0%)4.5%
(3.0%)4.2%
(3.0%)Employment (full-time) 5.3%
(0.8%)4.0%
(2.4%)5.0%
(2.1%)3.6%
(2.5%)Wage Bill 6.4%
(4.0%)5.4%
(4.0%)5.7%
(4.0%)5.2%
(4.0%)Note: Q2 2024 data in the table reflect results for 391 to 440 U.S. firms responding to the Q2 2024 survey (May 13 – June 3, 2024). Results from the Q1 2024 survey (February 20 – March 8, 2024) are shown for comparison (for 391 to 429 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Wage Bill are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. The share of firms that increased spending (excluding capital expenditures) in the past three months inched down to 46.1 percent from 47 percent in the previous quarter.
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CFOs’ Expectations for the Aggregate Economy
CFOs revised downward their expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability respondents assign to negative year-ahead economic growth rose to 12.6 percent from 10 percent last quarter.
Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Weighted Mean 1.8% 2.2% Weighted Median 1.9% 2.0% Probability of Negative Growth
(mean share of probability on bins below zero)12.6% 10.0% Note: Q2 2024 data in the table reflect results for 409 U.S. firms responding to the Q2 2024 survey (May 13 – June 3, 2024) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q1 2024 survey (February 20 – March 8, 2024) are shown for comparison (for 400 firms). Responses are weighted by sales revenue. Expectations for Stock Market Performance, by Response Quarter Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Expected Annual S&P 500 Returns Over Next 12 Months and Next 10 Years 12 Mos
(N=298)10 Yrs
(N=308)12 Mos
(N=302)10 Yrs
(N=308)Worst Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be less than): -3.5% 3.4% -2.8% 3.3% Most Likely Case 6.2% 9.4% 6.7% 9.1% Best Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be greater than): 11.9% 14.2% 12.5% 14.0% Note: The table shows responses from firms that indicated they closely follow the stock market. Results from the Q1 2024 survey (February 20 – March 8, 2024) are shown for comparison. Responses are unweighted and winsorized at 2.5% and 97.5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. Please see The CFO Survey Methodology for further information.
Source: Duke University, FRB Richmond and FRB Atlanta, The CFO Survey – Q2 2024 (May 13 – June 3, 2024) -
Special Questions on Firm Activity Relative to Norms
In the most recent CFO Survey, we explore expectations for pricing pressures by asking financial leaders nationwide for their anticipated growth in prices in 2024, and how these compare to pre-pandemic growth rates.
We find that most CFOs expect pricing pressures to remain elevated through at least 2024.
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Special Questions on Election Uncertainty
The second quarter survey asked firms about whether the 2024 presidential and congressional elections in the U.S. would affect their investment plans. The majority of firms reported that election uncertainty had no effect on their investment plans.
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Special Questions on Automation
The second quarter CFO Survey asked firms if they adopted labor-replacing automation in the last 12 months, as well as their motivations.
Around 60 percent of all firms, and nearly 85 percent of large firms, implemented automation over the last 12 months. Around 65 percent of firms indicated that automation is a strategic priority.
Firms indicated that their primary motivation for automating tasks over the last 12 months was to enhance business processes.
Looking forward, 60 percent of all firms, and 80 percent of large firms, anticipate adopting labor-replacing automation over the next 12 months.
Nearly 88 percent of firms said their main motivation for automation is to enhance business processes.
For additional discussion of these results, visit our Research & Commentary section.
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Special Questions on Artificial Intelligence
CFOs that reported automating were also asked about whether their firms had utilized artificial intelligence (AI) to automate tasks over the last 12 months. Around 40 percent of all firms answered yes, with a greater percentage of large firms answering yes than small firms.
CFOs that plan to automate over the next 12 months were asked about their plans to adopt AI over the same period. Fifty-four percent of all firms, and 76 percent of large firms, anticipate utilizing AI to automate tasks.
For additional discussion of these results, visit our Research & Commentary section.
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