2025
CFOs remain concerned about tariffs and anticipate price increases of more than 3 percent in 2026, while expecting moderate growth in employment and overall economic activity. Widespread increases in AI-related spending are expected, particularly among small firms.
The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved somewhat in the third quarter of 2025, as uncertainty declined. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices and business performance continued to weigh on firms.
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Financial decision-makers’ outlooks deteriorated in the second quarter of 2025, amid record concern about the impact of trade policy. Forty percent of respondents indicated tariffs and trade policy were a pressing concern for their firm this quarter, a record share of respondents citing the same concern going back to the second quarter of 2020.
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Optimism about the economy among CFOs fell in the first quarter of 2025 amid concerns about tariffs and uncertainty, according to the latest CFO Survey.
The economic optimism index fell from 66.0 in the fourth quarter to 62.1 in the first quarter of 2025, almost erasing gains from a post-election jump in the fourth quarter. Optimism about their own firm’s financial prospects also fell, although not nearly as much.
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