CFO Outlook for 2026: Tariffs, Hiring, Prices, and AI Impact

Data & Results

Dec. 17, 2025

CFOs remain concerned about tariffs and anticipate price increases of more than 3 percent in 2026, while expecting moderate growth in employment and overall economic activity. Widespread increases in AI-related spending are expected, particularly among small firms.

News Release

Revisions to The CFO Survey Data

CFO Survey data from Q2 2020 to Q4 2025 have been revised in accordance with an annual revision process. Revised historical data are available for download. Comparisons of revised and previously published estimates are also available.

Historical special question results are unrevised and available on archived quarterly results pages.

For more information on the annual data revision process, please refer to The CFO Survey Methodology.

Special Questions on Employment

When asked to assess their firm’s current employment situation in light of the 2026 outlook, over half of respondents said their firms were hiring replacements and 40 percent said they were hiring for new positions. Seventeen percent of firms said they were either laying off workers or not filling open positions.

Of the firms that said they were laying off workers or declining to fill open positions, the number one reason was because of demand uncertainty.

Special Questions on AI

Over the last 12 months, over half of all firms surveyed said they had made expenditures or financial investments in AI technology or solutions. The percentage was much larger for large firms (77.7 percent) than small firms (48.3 percent).

Firms generally expect to invest more in AI over the next 12 months than they did in the last 12 months.

When asked how firms’ use of AI has affected certain outcomes over the last 12 months, respondents generally indicated that there was no change. Some firms, however, reported small improvements to labor productivity, decision-making speed, and time spent on high value-add tasks.

When asked to look at the effects of AI on the same outcomes over the next 12 months, a higher percentage of firms reported expecting improvements across outcomes.

Special Questions on Demand

The fourth quarter survey also asked firms how they expect demand for goods and services over the next 12 months to compare to the past 12 months. About 47 percent of firms expect demand to increase, and 37 percent expect demand to remain the same.