CFO Outlook Holds Up Despite Continued Tariff Concerns, Uncertainty

Data & Results

March 25, 2026

The outlook for the U.S. economy improved among financial decision-makers in the first quarter of 2026. Despite concerns about tariff policy and uncertainty, expectations for U.S. GDP growth and business revenue growth over the next year remained solid.

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Revisions to The CFO Survey Data

CFO Survey data from Q2 2020 to Q4 2025 have been revised in accordance with an annual revision process. Revised historical data are available for download. Comparisons of revised and previously published estimates are also available.

Historical special question results are unrevised and available on archived quarterly results pages.

For more information on the annual data revision process, please refer to The CFO Survey Methodology.

CFO Optimism

When asked between Feb. 17 and Mar. 5 to rate optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale from 0 to 100, the average rating from CFOs was 61.7, improving slightly from 60.3 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

CFOs’ Most Pressing Concerns

For the fifth consecutive quarter, tariffs and trade policy were the top concerns among survey respondents. The other top concerns were labor quality/availability, demand/sales/revenue, and uncertainty.

CFOs’ Expectations for Their Firms’ Performance

In the first quarter of 2026, CFOs’ expectations for price and wage growth were relatively unchanged. They reported expecting lower employment and unit cost growth than they did last quarter.

CFOs' Growth Expectations for Their Own Firms, by Response Quarter	Q1 2026		Q4 2025
Mean (and Median) Expected Year-Over-Year Percentage Change for Calendar Years	2026	2027	2025	2026
Revenue	5.8% (5.0%)	7.0% (5.0%)	6.9% (5.0%)	7.4% (5.0%)
Price	3.6% (3.0%)	3.6% (3.0%)	4.3% (3.5%)	4.0% (3.5%)
Unit Cost	3.5% (3.0%)	3.3% (3.0%)	5.1% (4.0%)	4.4% (3.0%)
Employment (full-time)	2.1% (1.6%)	2.4% (1.4%)	4.3% (1.5%)	2.4% (1.7%)
Average Wage	4.0% (3.0%)	3.8% (3.0%)	4.3% (3.5%)	4.0% (3.0%)
Note: Q1 2026 data in the table reflect results for 415 to 466 U.S. firms responding to the Q1 2026 survey (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026). Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison (for 552 to 598 firms). Revenue, Price, and Unit Cost are weighted by sales revenue. Employment and Average Wage are weighted by employment. These data are also winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values.

The share of firms that increased spending (excluding capital expenditures) in the past three months was 43 percent, increasing from 39.2 percent in the previous quarter.

CFOs’ Expectations for the Aggregate Economy

CFOs’ expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters edged up slightly to 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent in the prior survey. Moreover, the probability respondents assign to negative year-ahead economic growth was 11.2 percent, down from 13.3 percent in the previous quarter.

CFOs' Expectations for Real GDP Growth Over Next Four Quarters, by Response Quarter	Q1 2026	Q4 2025
Weighted Mean	2.1%	1.9%
Weighted Median	2.0%	1.9%
Probability of Negative Growth	11.2%	13.3%
Note: Q1 2026 data in the table reflect results for 441 U.S. firms responding to Q1 2026 survey (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026) and that indicate they are familiar with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison. Responses are weighted by sales revenue.

Expectations for Stock Market Performance, by Response Quarter	Q1 2026		Q4 2025
Expected Annual S&P 500 Returns Over Next 12 Months and Next 10 Years	12 Mos (N=328)	10 Yrs (N=326)	12 Mos (N=426)	10 Yrs (N=430)
Worst Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be less than):	-2.8%	3.6%	-3.2%	4.2%
Most Likely Case	6.6%	9.3%	6.3%	9.6%
Best Case (a 1-in-10 chance the actual return will be greater than):	12.4%	14.4%	12.2%	14.7%
Note: The table shows responses from firms that indicated they closely follow the stock market. Results from the Q4 2025 survey (Nov. 11 – Dec. 1, 2025) are shown for comparison. Responses are unweighted and winsorized at 5% to remove the potential influence of extreme values. Please see The CFO Survey Methodology for further information. Source: Duke Fuqua School of Business, Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, The CFO Survey – Q1 2026 (Feb. 17 – Mar. 5, 2026)

Special Questions on Investment

First quarter investment intentions were very similar to those in the third quarter of 2025 (which was the last time the survey asked this question), with about a third of firms intending to invest in structures and almost two-thirds planning to invest in equipment.

Replacement/repair and capacity increases were the primary reasons for investment. About a quarter of firms investing in equipment were doing so at least partly to reduce reliance on labor.

Special Questions on Employment

Most firms reported continued hiring, albeit more for replacement than for new positions. Very few firms expected to lay off workers.

Of the firms that said they were laying off workers or declining to fill open positions, 58.6 percent cited financial constraints as a reason.

Special Questions on Price and Cost Expectations

When asked if price expectations or realizations for 2025 and 2026 had been affected by the implementation of tariffs or uncertainty around tariffs/trade policy, 39 percent of firms said yes, decreasing from 46.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025.

Similarly, 48.5 percent of firms reported that cost expectations had been affected, edging down slightly from 49.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025.

Special Questions on Demand

The first quarter survey also asked firms how they expect demand for goods and services over the next 12 months to compare to the past 12 months. Nearly 60 percent of firms expect demand to increase, and 34.1 percent expect demand to remain the same.