Working Papers

We propose a new reserve-demand estimation strategy — a middle ground between atheoretical reduced-form econometric approaches and fully structural quantitative-theoretic approaches.

Emerging economies exhibit pro-cyclical fiscal policy, counter-cyclical sovereign spreads, and recurrent debt crises, whereas advanced economies sustain high debt with low spreads and lower volatility in outcomes.

This study uses foot-traffic data and machine learning to separate unpredictable customer demand shocks from strategic business decisions at NYC establishments, revealing significant heterogeneity in shock persistence and trends that pooled analysis would miss.

The paper discusses a model that aggregates district trade preferences into a national trade policy through legislative bargaining, incorporating institutional design, economic and political geography and bargaining.

We document significant variation in interest rates among similar commercial and industrial loans using confidential supervisory data on the largest US banks.

In this review, we synthesize the empirical evidence on illiquidity and insolvency as causes of bank failures and discuss what these findings imply for policies meant to address the incidence and consequences of financial crises.

How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment?