Economic Research

We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.

Featured

Wall of shipping containers with caution tape labeled with "tariffs" stretched across.

Blog Post

Tariff Cost Pass-through Among Fifth District Firms

Regional Matters

August 26, 2025

By Zach Edwards and James Melton

Though tariff uncertainty persists, most Fifth District businesses that are directly affected by tariffs have raised prices, and many plan to raise prices in the coming months.

Magnifying glass focused on a payroll chart.

Blog Post

Answers Don't Come Easy

Macro Minute

August 26, 2025

By John O'Trakoun

Were declining response rates to the Current Employment Statistics survey responsible for July's outsized data revision?

Publications

Two-Sided Platforms and the 6 Percent Real Estate Broker Commission

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-05

Borys Grochulski and Zhu Wang

Since brokers operate a two-sided platform for trading homes, this model explains the 6 real estate broker commission and implies that commission rates should be higher where price-rent ratios are higher.

Failing Banks

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-04

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

Why do banks fail? The authors create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States.

Banks in Space

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-03

Ezra Oberfield, Nicholas Trachter, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg and Derek Wenning

This paper's authors study the spatial expansion of banks in response to the banking deregulation of the 1980s and '90s in order to develop a spatial theory of banking.

Data & Analysis

Fifth District Surveys of Manufacturing and Service Sector Activity

August 26, 2025

Manufacturing activity remained soft in August, while service sector activity improved slightly.

        Month,Manufacturing Composite,Service Sector Revenues
2015-08-01,6.666666508,24.66666603
2015-09-01,3.333333254,20.66666603
2015-10-01,2,17
2015-11-01,1.333333373,8.666666985
2015-12-01,3.333333254,10
2016-01-01,3,9.666666985
2016-02-01,-.3333333433,9
2016-03-01,3.333333254,8.666666985
2016-04-01,5,7.666666508
2016-05-01,8.666666985,9
2016-06-01,1,5.666666508
2016-07-01,.3333333433,2.666666746
2016-08-01,-2,0
2016-09-01,-2,3.333333254
2016-10-01,-3,5
2016-11-01,-.3333333433,8.333333015
2016-12-01,4.333333492,8
2017-01-01,7.666666508,13
2017-02-01,12,15.33333302
2017-03-01,15.66666698,15
2017-04-01,17.66666603,14.66666698
2017-05-01,14,18.33333397
2017-06-01,12,22
2017-07-01,9.666666985,20.33333397
2017-08-01,12.33333302,18.33333397
2017-09-01,14.33333302,18.66666603
2017-10-01,15.33333302,22
2017-11-01,20,25.66666603
2017-12-01,21,27
2018-01-01,22,26.33333397
2018-02-01,20.33333397,23.33333397
2018-03-01,17.33333397,21.33333397
2018-04-01,12.33333302,15.33333302
2018-05-01,11.33333302,13.33333302
2018-06-01,14.33333302,13.33333302
2018-07-01,20.33333397,21
2018-08-01,21.66666603,24.66666603
2018-09-01,24,25
2018-10-01,22.33333397,15
2018-11-01,18,8
2018-12-01,8,5.666666508
2019-01-01,2.666666746,10.66666698
2019-02-01,4,13.33333302
2019-03-01,7.333333492,9.666666985
2019-04-01,10,12.33333302
2019-05-01,8,7.666666508
2019-06-01,6.666666508,12.66666698
2019-07-01,1,11.33333302
2019-08-01,-2.666666746,12
2019-09-01,-6.666666508,10.33333302
2019-10-01,-2.333333254,10.33333302
2019-11-01,-1,13
2019-12-01,.3333333433,15.66666698
2020-01-01,4,16
2020-02-01,2.666666746,18.33333397
2020-03-01,4.666666508,12.33333302
2020-04-01,-18.33333397,-22.33333397
2020-05-01,-26.33333397,-47.66666794
2020-06-01,-25,-56.66666794
2020-07-01,-4.666666508,-31.66666603
2020-08-01,10.33333302,-12.33333302
2020-09-01,15.66666698,-1
2020-10-01,20.66666603,6.666666508
2020-11-01,20,11
2020-12-01,17.33333397,6.666666508
2021-01-01,15,3
2021-02-01,15.66666698,-3.666666746
2021-03-01,16.66666603,3
2021-04-01,17,10
2021-05-01,18.33333397,22
2021-06-01,21.66666603,25.33333397
2021-07-01,24,25
2021-08-01,21.33333397,21.33333397
2021-09-01,11.66666698,13
2021-10-01,8,10
2021-11-01,8,6.333333492
2021-12-01,12.66666698,10.33333302
2022-01-01,11.33333302,8.666666985
2022-02-01,8.333333015,9
2022-03-01,7.333333492,8.333333015
2022-04-01,6.666666508,9.333333015
2022-05-01,2,7
2022-06-01,-4,3
2022-07-01,-6.333333492,-3.666666746
2022-08-01,-4.333333492,-7.666666508
2022-09-01,-2.333333254,-7.666666508
2022-10-01,-5.666666508,-6.666666508
2022-11-01,-7,-5.666666508
2022-12-01,-7,-10.33333302
2023-01-01,-5.666666508,-10.33333302
2023-02-01,-8.333333015,-9
2023-03-01,-10,-9
2023-04-01,-12,-12
2023-05-01,-10.33333302,-14
2023-06-01,-10.33333302,-10.33333302
2023-07-01,-8.333333015,-5.666666508
2023-08-01,-6.333333492,-1
2023-09-01,-3,.3333333433
2023-10-01,.3333333433,-1.333333373
2023-11-01,-.3333333433,-3.666666746
2023-12-01,-4.666666508,-5.333333492
2024-01-01,-9.666666985,-2.333333254
2024-02-01,-10.66666698,-6
2024-03-01,-11.33333302,-5.666666508
2024-04-01,-9,-8.333333015
2024-05-01,-6.333333492,-1.666666627
2024-06-01,-6,-2.333333254
2024-07-01,-9,1.666666627
2024-08-01,-15.33333302,-4
2024-09-01,-17.33333397,-1.666666627
2024-10-01,-17,-2
2024-11-01,-14.33333302,3.666666746
2024-12-01,-11.66666698,10
2025-01-01,-9.666666985,9.333333015
2025-02-01,-4.666666508,9.666666985
2025-03-01,-3.333333254,2.333333254
2025-04-01,-5,.3333333433
2025-05-01,-10.33333302,-5.666666508
2025-06-01,-11,-5.333333492
2025-07-01,-13.66666698,-3.333333254
2025-08-01,-11.66666698,1.666666627

Economic Research

Featured

Publications Arrow icon .st0{fill:none;stroke-width:1.5;stroke-miterlimit:10;}

Data & Analysis Arrow icon .st0{fill:none;stroke-width:1.5;stroke-miterlimit:10;}

Fifth District Surveys of Manufacturing and Service Sector Activity

Publications

Data & Analysis