Economic Research
We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.
Featured
Article
Linking Municipal Defaults to Inward Migrations
November 2019, No. 19-11
By Grey Gordon, Pablo Guerrón-Quintana and David A. Price
Not all municipal defaults are created alike. Many follow local bust periods — yet some follow local booms. Research links both bust defaults and boom defaults to the overborrowing incentives created by migration into a municipality.
Article
The Young Adult Homeownership Gap: Evidence from Fifth District HMDA Data
November 7, 2019
By Sam Storey
Young adults are buying houses at lower rates than in previous years, especially in rural counties. What is behind this trend?
What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs
October 2019, No. 19-18
Christoph Gortz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik
Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information
September 2019, No. 19-17
Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Elmar Mertens
Employment Growth in the Fifth District
Nov. 12, 2019
Learn more about your state’s labor and housing markets in our latest Snapshot and economic indicators of the Fifth District.
Month,United States,Fifth District,District of Columbia,Maryland,North Carolina,South Carolina,Virginia,West Virginia 2009-09-01,-4.75985055092893,-4.53438721470425,-1.46851171985316,-3.19075144508671,-6.06075310559007,-6.32204892806842,-3.73928505082137,-3.07839649746887 2009-10-01,-4.56900093918761,-4.24566979413835,-0.255536626916519,-2.95526539442169,-5.89341999169252,-5.81846799580273,-3.5016763344154,-3.15919037199125 2009-11-01,-4.04836199201836,-3.83326045765924,0.0853121000995438,-2.6833145914925,-5.37100737100736,-5.37146475306036,-3.08735945303529,-2.93030261536354 2009-12-01,-3.74693193530925,-3.55527583027181,0.270462633451962,-2.53218717180753,-5.05666526752425,-4.94128898570746,-2.87889347558034,-2.39010989010988 2010-01-01,-3.18257081909989,-2.78944144755776,0.0567214974475316,-1.99491492274594,-3.91661876077883,-3.59812832786531,-2.36745491847533,-2.22130242825606 2010-02-01,-2.71277712777128,-2.79900670842445,-0.284292821606258,-2.99286106534872,-3.5311266933072,-2.80095351609059,-2.51199089504919,-1.99280376418488 2010-03-01,-1.9874895305933,-1.617968476096,0.914155120697036,-1.19751043882456,-2.43401536472199,-2.00796638838872,-1.47110905276923,-0.847810979847119 2010-04-01,-1.29176622293018,-0.588835381130259,2.41726618705036,-0.331832187722214,-1.46585627457991,-0.834156514103834,-0.353231106243157,-0.195804195804195 2010-05-01,-0.627419367104975,0.0202597753416134,2.4099842203414,-0.0473914932269559,-0.792980840559687,0.121045392022001,0.114892220155394,1.6356773381798 2010-06-01,-0.378550821974266,0.081949341773857,2.44775264815345,0.0592838510789617,-0.549535206204088,0.292995743269397,0.183486238532105,0.236933797909411 2010-07-01,-0.185943298771851,0.435805410622203,1.90043965394979,0.357256271832318,-0.211334759413417,0.714404386110634,0.634615384615378,1.06636733548475 2010-08-01,-0.0490417697948664,0.413588027079448,0.410881269481456,0.425024826216469,-0.0283944243675727,0.926799489427821,0.522221916829291,0.926445816956778 2010-09-01,0.0875179450172459,0.618316393330964,2.39323588420752,0.593105644455072,-0.0800661191177277,1.03569241049055,0.714049404499351,1.22811970638059 2010-10-01,0.446713465220161,1.07911488329797,1.96413321947053,0.895664981489586,0.911333246786961,1.32026070970976,0.987150499090061,1.62406439768394 2010-11-01,0.532008948821039,1.06698999696877,1.77582042903821,0.900506036578097,0.950303785636386,1.2992082078733,0.975555984236776,1.46706164480179 2010-12-01,0.79735601368216,1.27253687852851,1.81714934696195,1.18924096097053,1.12604998309624,1.83891342015539,1.14263634356371,1.05544610188573 2011-01-01,0.810433951944045,1.32011447571188,2.31009070294783,1.22131311115545,0.988502159096827,1.26645837982593,1.62302651588466,1.07238605898121 2011-02-01,1.04613961376865,2.09488366417803,2.96507483962936,2.69701993449518,1.6282826177574,1.61083551641492,2.34600845007784,1.60971476983902 2011-03-01,1.08472227568421,1.62789639694287,2.39207360226468,1.43130531855515,1.47605311712273,1.67603986858955,1.89122680896952,0.925147182506314 2011-04-01,1.1472965911536,1.29028363603438,1.96684461927508,0.864050733254063,1.36066763425253,1.44438295517433,1.29977192162898,1.30325112107623 2011-05-01,0.806636768554947,0.657934221582024,1.38674884437595,0.470188470504573,0.861202073073253,0.725394295763038,0.631182031805011,-0.52269601100412 2011-06-01,1.09170305676856,0.82708574347572,1.42517814726839,0.47793972429595,1.14645734352405,1.0472935729247,0.639658848614078,0.139043381535031 2011-07-01,1.2066665644501,1.01872288035072,1.41962421711901,1.05608733486275,1.26552855187376,1.00076982294073,0.788949250634707,0.374843815077064 2011-08-01,1.30407783067688,1.09359850278472,2.5963030901651,0.767344355668076,1.34266312065894,1.03376223468603,0.861291116397345,0.751043115438099 2011-09-01,1.5348269963873,1.48552087250846,2.32330300909727,1.00906177040876,1.56383281205572,1.29512262331222,1.628753661274,1.65946172081997 2011-10-01,1.48191240183095,1.10508006957355,1.54941373534339,0.875877850548412,1.01116657232543,1.03364855948977,1.2341633901267,1.50083379655364 2011-11-01,1.48740106297556,1.18694139523725,1.39586823003908,0.860877463175758,1.1522633744856,1.18346452358673,1.29909118200922,1.75170304462673 2011-12-01,1.58591857167969,1.26029326919475,1.53374233128833,0.989903770310763,1.28580980301394,1.08671789242589,1.26071058232824,2.24202757276146 2012-01-01,1.84167691943236,1.62508428860417,0.983515722399231,1.29332439572574,1.92159085054866,1.99988981323345,1.29781792457964,2.56875610777609 2012-02-01,1.87606811523437,1.41922375929966,0.913747750242289,1.20875659500748,1.52272552487889,1.68952276467362,1.25203693644758,2.27904391328515 2012-03-01,1.87732285383537,1.53541985302346,0.995299972352792,1.32463346566567,1.71067120796946,1.77437020810516,1.31339719410599,2.40277777777778 2012-04-01,1.69192782526115,1.29470571145496,0.38578120694408,1.08456460232631,1.61599631798306,1.39108613823578,1.11490885416667,1.88131138470051 2012-05-01,1.69374430610385,1.46974428536293,1.20198949986186,1.11294635834511,1.82529335071708,1.42397293905832,1.10510738819951,3.04203539823009 2012-06-01,1.5672009397143,1.31203480878266,0.63369610139139,1.23830489818382,1.41172265904217,1.67466724852716,1.19513255106476,1.38850319355734 2012-07-01,1.63616531329536,1.03445969545863,0.123507616302998,0.845434263571954,1.45119742916167,1.43728222996515,0.712351029252445,0.982019363762099 2012-08-01,1.67098033873678,1.28771319385586,0.605143721633894,1.15402731983043,1.61532777905169,1.61097202568847,1.12502710908697,0.676421866372157 2012-09-01,1.63249580733376,1.26588845654994,0.547120776911503,1.25362375617017,1.71790695306933,1.6702937976061,0.856542584711528,0.658436213991753 2012-10-01,1.59528730256906,1.52901570540867,1.48453608247423,1.18507509386732,2.00973025293563,1.87200696560732,1.31891250404574,0.397042716319818 2012-11-01,1.61329214075805,1.54796926291765,1.63821585903083,1.22939587330175,2.06214401952807,2.17604178000217,1.23932429883882,-0.204946030878539 2012-12-01,1.6356441006967,1.52579119895222,1.46937654490524,1.20670129261531,2.01594475194231,2.07405798675209,1.33124932629081,-0.326886406973592 2013-01-01,1.5112291680736,1.30567167260154,1.28943758573388,1.1327805675581,1.7261423372422,1.66360591984445,1.10123284359809,-0.204164965291953 2013-02-01,1.52099512472759,1.31908437426349,1.39936891205927,1.10095312196072,1.7953185364745,1.6236918761463,1.1104852337652,-0.271739130434778 2013-03-01,1.44203814037631,1.17640143137414,1.21817684095265,0.931026456668471,1.70707757383488,1.4367197589324,0.972278023302531,-0.488268004882664 2013-04-01,1.52257717479007,1.25756561771475,2.07246774636289,1.03405380189705,1.71862811705796,1.68406327343162,0.89872568745808,-0.515953835709426 2013-05-01,1.61476957992102,1.11498769694076,1.4334470989761,1.09291742833806,1.48879013833447,1.80742334588488,0.856697819314634,-1.55662909286098 2013-06-01,1.69523141550332,1.28401235475806,1.46475017111567,1.1144332699103,1.7218376337319,1.86705295348462,0.810607687352372,0.246507806080509 2013-07-01,1.65752444550442,1.41223198852563,1.76809210526316,1.11003299049097,1.79496203931822,2.09854014598541,1.03004060995615,0.232844815778654 2013-08-01,1.70901999315201,1.32712832332604,1.73615857826386,1.00892510671324,1.78772910763985,2.12104981253347,0.78009811543307,0.287947346770889 2013-09-01,1.70661909540268,1.24274516405261,1.80927764929941,0.789290412442933,1.92909150048792,2.30641622518328,0.528789659224427,-0.531479967293536 2013-10-01,1.75435991476913,1.07946245983055,0.948124068806711,0.649375748908043,1.94516580103874,2.40384615384615,0.114468255024636,-0.436383471975987 2013-11-01,1.8331343482807,1.14711033274957,1.24610591900312,0.893444208083549,1.84857619771295,2.14034714087956,0.276765042446181,0.0136911281489516 2013-12-01,1.70407438114415,1.04515141576473,1.16389227229665,0.497762000308688,1.91886510701842,2.36170212765958,0.0771235572575968,-0.34162339437005 2014-01-01,1.68831264830023,0.895859107779651,0.365655471289283,0.357967667436498,1.76890015154905,2.3642545956859,0.0159400653542585,-0.709219858156029 2014-02-01,1.60295658075271,0.621515334346179,0.419429035313224,0.292442665845782,1.26258867887086,2.1073305377143,-0.230799840827689,-0.967302452316077 2014-03-01,1.6853601379534,0.859151451769868,0.473292765382016,0.269044507648553,1.66357222428517,2.71603628454724,-0.132633030930018,-0.763254736268237 2014-04-01,1.78232393847966,1.25138902002366,0.242033077853976,0.673335898422467,2.04828814565603,2.83083761045557,0.515820260569,-0.368500068240762 2014-05-01,1.77718676991345,1.5058512454327,0.0942126514132058,0.896429670667898,2.21403126855333,2.90077142555216,0.844095326853944,0.981461286804786 2014-06-01,1.8797461388899,1.41004603342869,1.07933081489477,0.848694316436238,2.31631567225123,2.65971454152842,0.825390063368658,-1.50273224043715 2014-07-01,1.96774193548388,1.34179510426111,0.875420875420874,0.687113738436151,2.31156771707992,2.42863901592809,0.745354842144486,-0.983875375785725 2014-08-01,1.92473763557326,1.41044030077802,0.765923138941127,1.08720706876682,2.20957729825599,2.48085597398511,0.758099696760128,-0.656275635767012 2014-09-01,2.01124014295007,1.42990363692881,0.601282736504549,1.16698656429943,2.07423044823016,2.61533633225233,0.738536740874562,0.0822030415125408 2014-10-01,2.03201611020314,1.54698767323227,1.07339326445726,1.27117016782519,2.16768315085605,2.69170579029734,0.821633694958512,0.273935077386667 2014-11-01,2.04190121101344,1.56263526967362,0.88294314381272,1.22671164609369,2.25532643526334,2.97122602168474,0.73511849473209,0.150581793292259 2014-12-01,2.18793216391295,1.71163958193583,0.88294314381272,1.49356882319063,2.33938121169202,2.95156932030762,0.985889293401709,0.287947346770889 2015-01-01,2.21128613693691,1.85442978628256,2.10497908514371,1.31937253097072,2.4998169079413,2.73524679503816,1.28297075464181,0.508241758241756 2015-02-01,2.26667150687916,2.15717154787534,2.15575316626246,1.51550030693677,3.03995296768977,3.15034310667499,1.47574984045948,0.398954464162871 2015-03-01,2.13718882487226,1.71518681999179,1.99192462987887,1.30711438209139,2.36442886015535,2.59773795382947,1.16606459838504,-0.274687542919927 2015-04-01,2.11261495748742,1.59529445520408,1.4486921529175,1.37206191477164,2.05323378260447,2.32067510548524,1.31467569569357,-0.520547945205474 2015-05-01,2.17998599611644,1.78407854811931,2.17829770068576,1.54814108674928,2.30644497688715,2.5982028241335,1.57900295732996,-1.78185745140388 2015-06-01,2.06399389299783,1.93100781854112,1.68179391350773,1.4698602490385,2.36788003386139,2.72419454135029,1.65575155804372,0.665742024965321 2015-07-01,2.10807857122315,2.1528001431383,2.08277703604807,1.72321768966832,2.27623829294197,3.06389530408007,2.29086297098768,-0.096605023461227 2015-08-01,2.05784364409214,2.15159762552772,2.22696359514603,1.47455630296811,2.41486515797844,3.06054557551563,2.34430687188152,-0.426644646297825 2015-09-01,1.92573594205598,2.09109893164372,1.88604064284765,1.38498899597783,2.45773513214533,2.90039759404628,2.37341772151898,-0.876112251882266 2015-10-01,1.98010597750302,2.27054411942593,2.28328687110049,1.65339400834281,2.47650556194861,2.98181448745301,2.7428330300393,-1.05176888403224 2015-11-01,1.93966901453682,2.21554504254928,2.29412544755336,1.52238127698252,2.43044757553283,2.75387263339071,2.78729121660781,-1.01148168398031 2015-12-01,1.9437875722955,2.29058519842282,2.67868982893515,1.61912688204584,2.47918108282232,2.8417120936806,2.80248407978527,-0.916051408258123 2016-01-01,1.85336642746907,1.9559244256862,1.87656931412712,1.55203088920013,2.37454450186962,2.66242295645145,2.07710464201416,-1.4486811534782 2016-02-01,1.83874425836132,1.98008599230595,2.17620680559218,1.34169847688876,2.39159376188667,2.7466989214797,2.19846448130387,-1.50726226363387 2016-03-01,1.9491393134375,2.2603869487962,2.26972816046451,1.64970297778955,2.71183215186259,2.72827947246552,2.53629847454513,-0.867649084148203 2016-04-01,1.88198309189005,2.16332236609853,2.65767552558509,1.54199969838638,2.7934155205587,2.98214734724667,1.99472598626669,-1.08785458551365 2016-05-01,1.66298135680629,1.73663598844118,2.13185945519148,0.931245540910974,2.38692278576838,2.57244382163055,1.48427345983884,-0.467289719626163 2016-06-01,1.7400139709151,1.59449302848313,1.71961144657391,0.863136563215372,2.34146110953597,2.402237426959,1.49110274061566,-1.8875723339763 2016-07-01,1.76670234339793,1.60019056560152,1.71331415119016,1.06064013192415,2.53239243822423,2.52962852305547,1.02291220003616,-1.47810471059537 2016-08-01,1.77433198722368,1.54963951301039,1.51317505870077,1.15351484963111,2.32968584539357,2.40850176292395,1.10145226610261,-1.52038700760193 2016-09-01,1.86896837725186,1.69292740308427,1.60344153304652,1.44092219020173,2.41286234010094,2.62049834051616,1.16950025759919,-1.29816323712194 2016-10-01,1.71656966552136,1.24886940791762,1.27190136275146,1.0072371857047,2.00491285530471,1.73136684259854,0.849654747542172,-1.54610712313638 2016-11-01,1.66824180055305,1.43088459106167,1.20560020741509,1.1750223813787,2.16492678483853,2.06916937629325,0.817613286856678,-0.207125103562555 2016-12-01,1.61956331877728,1.26800793111577,0.955701924318753,1.12426476062841,1.96982397317684,1.97791411042945,0.806307113420535,-1.53166827652822 2017-01-01,1.73166218622351,1.55583647047384,1.34907251264755,1.37920751481717,1.99841801600598,2.52940308055707,1.17671239915729,-0.901400637914296 2017-02-01,1.6654234665068,1.54845778320205,0.813218019878659,1.52532259267548,2.01068028790343,2.24652965124834,1.19993846469413,-0.431274346132426 2017-03-01,1.58824061636542,1.43161742308864,1.2258064516129,1.27303182579563,1.82037148547871,2.30791846334772,1.0652190612757,-0.583495415393154 2017-04-01,1.58730158730158,1.17209636622484,0.772797527047908,0.943080978724975,1.46504910456382,1.90936614903801,1.01881479585306,-0.570792148127508 2017-05-01,1.66565907148366,1.20802493451926,0.901945625563716,1.18307972766842,1.48332986760933,1.89802390827032,1.11421326297994,-1.46368406517536 2017-06-01,1.62564411987045,1.4823521277699,1.16144018583042,1.39524500502288,1.67609373196353,2.13616855247756,1.24651258030664,0.393203201797498 2017-07-01,1.53053104999135,1.33501589468821,0.848656294200834,1.12738735397737,1.62508056348403,1.82612918892666,1.16085811450051,0.4206393718452 2017-08-01,1.5650490806028,1.26982378096228,0.873811359547672,0.988559369099185,1.71323444866045,1.62447871205509,0.997601673725579,0.533333333333319 2017-09-01,1.3882563996412,1.03729027651922,0.872465999486804,0.741587957497036,1.42781839433457,1.13438887816182,0.929368029739774,0.26584580943052 2017-10-01,1.47802947786402,1.34890912214396,0.986799948737671,0.908553700694337,1.75680014678226,2.07525213343676,1.03339442068824,0.560852495793607 2017-11-01,1.51072795879583,1.10923840061388,0.845395158191353,0.800058990524644,1.50642344442919,1.81967371367893,0.935553578238224,-0.940916009409165 2017-12-01,1.4803049992093,1.0775581737648,0.844313675323005,0.500662641731697,1.45225373338815,1.67003561459236,0.964907825910322,0.126121076233177 2018-01-01,1.42214900991797,1.469079568304,1.08793037245616,0.720667720704493,1.74030061811463,2.69258459323254,1.27475876079228,0.57374755107753 2018-02-01,1.55037165034697,1.49070274035277,1.28040973111396,0.855893913235128,1.76620538965768,2.70088750299833,1.2034456549278,0.503004051977074 2018-03-01,1.58670347964895,1.50286650286651,0.981516889738687,0.933583269011651,1.85378946410699,2.44743522199338,1.29722060351161,0.461151481274458 2018-04-01,1.57276160245183,1.6216511605667,1.26533742331287,0.886453084194661,2.15217836889932,2.3623556471321,1.31008793046652,1.1061327359283 2018-05-01,1.66844378827646,1.73168450019461,1.16204826969737,0.919219031510821,2.28126494091934,2.39417736065888,1.33245516263045,2.34024663677128 2018-06-01,1.68835688889193,1.59355221114736,1.27567291746395,0.788932922354313,2.10712744942212,2.37322127781494,1.22358175750834,1.60861658973284 2018-07-01,1.66829088777882,1.51068709043027,1.02001785031238,0.693094722945475,1.84597961494903,2.36096537250787,1.29919369107498,1.77324769617424 2018-08-01,1.73082682203043,1.47081823189017,0.980891719745225,0.659920809502856,1.75446529504861,2.51467290165579,1.17973980042945,1.89864581879102 2018-09-01,1.79186345632971,1.05789548780737,0.852200457898755,0.417505951290975,1.12301156905279,1.94740107870748,0.908196473170353,1.54898130058609 2018-10-01,1.80024727924892,1.17975699717943,0.748730964466993,0.512407583632246,1.38613415073927,2.32756982709481,0.773416637275148,1.79866146123815 2018-11-01,1.78128094856942,1.27663899712012,0.698590118125231,0.735186539868327,1.35570318657809,2.31808485423086,0.979774828098634,2.06732783908368 2018-12-01,1.81508983983305,1.31057604388907,0.608905239122159,1.08791208791208,1.27616475354491,2.55621301775149,0.814848347668629,2.22533240027991 2019-01-01,1.90840986147109,1.30424232620212,0.683717396809325,0.912641915817902,1.60516522440926,1.52832305103758,1.02301790281329,2.50452205370808 2019-02-01,1.71914353430522,1.07923350199159,0.493046776232609,0.47348484848484,1.4179638575774,1.4620702541106,0.778570534484913,2.46072570554707 2019-03-01,1.69747570458392,1.14105512298113,0.568038374147939,0.5389461418011,1.43147457513568,1.53342683496962,0.872914634451361,2.58728613158994 2019-04-01,1.70870516922041,1.25362981286299,0.391265934620733,0.659909581449614,1.62750256387389,1.96610804231814,0.935467733866946,1.78645616950561 2019-05-01,1.56576691653501,1.0578388138244,0.42918454935621,0.469996720953114,1.41346688925987,1.84249906472129,0.814959252037406,0.794194166780793 2019-06-01,1.50664062762151,0.960983918775749,0.680186421463658,0.203881020861418,1.44099268384887,1.55790848453754,0.581918081918076,1.48678414096917 2019-07-01,1.49679927606663,1.04576565464261,1.13593335857629,0.109257775511695,1.61903702880017,1.48175760682168,0.823414926266941,0.87803539580189 2019-08-01,1.41770424240801,1.1050501259851,1.34981708086286,0.444347319347327,1.54201662000621,1.47551666356358,0.881354239488674,0.767228387450336 2019-09-01,1.43540030085241,1.4233272375215,1.03417833270274,0.948247565556737,2.29481822447657,2.03193033381712,0.647516187904706,0.755805963996159 2019-10-01,1.396711422,,,,,,,
Seminar
2019 Research Seminars, Andrei Levchenko
Wed., Nov. 20, 2019
10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
Richmond Office
Richmond, VA
Richmond, VA
Levchenko, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan, presents his latest work.
Seminar
2019 Research Seminars, Chad Syverson
Thu., Dec. 12, 2019
10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
Richmond Office
Richmond, VA
Richmond, VA
Syverson, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, presents his latest work.
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