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Economic Research

We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.

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Data &
Analysis
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Publications
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Events
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Our Team

Featured

Row of wooden blocks with the individual letters of "PCE" spelled.
Article
Predicting PCE Using the Richmond Fed Price Measure
Economic Brief
December 2025, No. 25-44

By Zach Edwards, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

A price measure derived from Richmond Fed survey data appears to be a productive way to improve any prediction of inflation.

A concerned business owner pondering his restaurant's expenses.
Blog Post
What Businesses Are Saying: The Economy Kept Chugging Along
Regional Matters
December 12, 2025

By R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

On-the-ground sensing helps us to understand the state and trajectory of the economy, especially when data are limited. It also allows us to better gauge how pressures on each side of our dual mandate — maximum employment and stable prices — are evolving. In this post, we draw from dozens of conversations with businesses throughout November.

Publications

Estimating the Missing Intercept
Working Paper Series
November 2025, No. 25-12

Christian Matthes, Naoya Nagasaka and Felipe F. Schwartzman

An econometric framework that can jointly leverage identification strategies from the applied microeconometric toolkit and identification assumptions from the macro/time series literature exploits both time series and crosssectional variation to identify aggregate macroeconomic effects as well as idiosyncratic effects of identified shocks.

Data & Analysis

Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index

December 3, 2025

The Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index (NEI) was 7.8 percent in September 2025, essentially unchanged from August 2025. The index increased by 0.2 percentage point compared to September 2024.

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CORE Week

Since 2021, the Collaboration of Research Economists (CORE) model has combined frontier research and an innovative delivery method to advance collaboration within the economics profession. Economists from a range of disciplines join with Richmond Fed economists eight times per year for seminars, collaboration, and formal and informal networking — all with an eye toward advancing economic research.

Our Careers
Being a Research Associate at the Richmond Fed

Research Associates help the Richmond Fed's economists with their research and policy memos for briefing the Bank's president on the state of the economy. For recent graduates thinking about applying to a Ph.D. program, this position is an ideal way to learn more about academic economic research.