Economic Research

We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.

Featured

Graphic illustrating the concept of the interconnected over-the-counter market model.

Article

How Private Information Distorts OTC Market Outcomes

Economic Brief

July 2025, No. 25-26

By Lindsay Li and Nicholas Trachter

Such information creates significant inefficiencies, lowering asset supply, trade volume and overall welfare.

Young adults sitting around a table and discussing notes as an instructor offers input.

Blog Post

Female-Dominated Industries Driving Payroll Growth

Macro Minute

July 1, 2025

By John O'Trakoun

In May, the industries that contributed most to job growth also employ more women than average. This may have ramifications for young job seekers and provide insight into gender divides in employment during recessions.

Publications

Two-sided platforms and the 6 percent real estate broker commission

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-05

Borys Grochulski and Zhu Wang

Since brokers operate a two-sided platform for trading homes, this model explains the 6 real estate broker commission and implies that commission rates should be higher where price-rent ratios are higher.

Failing Banks

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-04

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

Why do banks fail? The authors create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States.

Banks in Space

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-03

Ezra Oberfield, Nicholas Trachter, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg and Derek Wenning

This paper's authors study the spatial expansion of banks in response to the banking deregulation of the 1980s and '90s in order to develop a spatial theory of banking.

Data & Analysis

Fifth District Surveys of Manufacturing and Service Sector Activity

June 24, 2025

Manufacturing and service sector activity remained soft in June.

        Month,Manufacturing Composite,Service Sector Revenues
2015-06-01,1.666666627,12.66666698
2015-07-01,6.666666508,17.66666603
2015-08-01,6.666666508,25
2015-09-01,3.333333254,21.33333397
2015-10-01,2,17.33333397
2015-11-01,1.333333373,9
2015-12-01,3.333333254,10
2016-01-01,3,10
2016-02-01,-.3333333433,8.666666985
2016-03-01,3.333333254,8.333333015
2016-04-01,4.666666508,7
2016-05-01,8.333333015,8.666666985
2016-06-01,.6666666865,5.333333492
2016-07-01,.3333333433,2.666666746
2016-08-01,-2,0
2016-09-01,-2,3.333333254
2016-10-01,-3,5
2016-11-01,-.3333333433,8.333333015
2016-12-01,4.333333492,7.666666508
2017-01-01,8,13
2017-02-01,12.33333302,15.33333302
2017-03-01,16,15.33333302
2017-04-01,17.66666603,14.66666698
2017-05-01,14,18.33333397
2017-06-01,12,22
2017-07-01,10,20.33333397
2017-08-01,13,18.33333397
2017-09-01,15,18.66666603
2017-10-01,15.66666698,22
2017-11-01,20,26
2017-12-01,21,27.33333397
2018-01-01,22,26.66666603
2018-02-01,20.33333397,23.33333397
2018-03-01,17.33333397,21
2018-04-01,12.33333302,15
2018-05-01,11,12.66666698
2018-06-01,14,13
2018-07-01,20,20.66666603
2018-08-01,21.33333397,24.66666603
2018-09-01,23.33333397,25
2018-10-01,21.66666603,15.33333302
2018-11-01,17.66666603,8.666666985
2018-12-01,8,6
2019-01-01,2.666666746,10.66666698
2019-02-01,4.333333492,13
2019-03-01,7.666666508,10
2019-04-01,10,12.66666698
2019-05-01,7.666666508,7.333333492
2019-06-01,6.333333492,12
2019-07-01,1,10.66666698
2019-08-01,-2.666666746,11.66666698
2019-09-01,-7,10
2019-10-01,-2.666666746,10
2019-11-01,-1.333333373,13
2019-12-01,.6666666865,16.33333397
2020-01-01,4.333333492,17
2020-02-01,3,19.33333397
2020-03-01,5,13
2020-04-01,-18,-22
2020-05-01,-26,-47.66666794
2020-06-01,-24.66666603,-56.66666794
2020-07-01,-4.333333492,-31.66666603
2020-08-01,10.66666698,-12
2020-09-01,15.33333302,-1
2020-10-01,20.33333397,6.666666508
2020-11-01,19.66666603,11.33333302
2020-12-01,17.66666603,7
2021-01-01,15.33333302,3.333333254
2021-02-01,16,-3
2021-03-01,16.66666603,3.666666746
2021-04-01,17,10.33333302
2021-05-01,18.33333397,21.33333397
2021-06-01,21.66666603,24.66666603
2021-07-01,24,24.66666603
2021-08-01,21.33333397,21.33333397
2021-09-01,11.33333302,12.66666698
2021-10-01,7.333333492,9.666666985
2021-11-01,7.333333492,6.333333492
2021-12-01,12.33333302,11
2022-01-01,11.33333302,9.333333015
2022-02-01,8.666666985,10.33333302
2022-03-01,8,9
2022-04-01,7.666666508,9.666666985
2022-05-01,2.666666746,6
2022-06-01,-3.333333254,2
2022-07-01,-6,-4.333333492
2022-08-01,-4.333333492,-8.333333015
2022-09-01,-3.333333254,-8.333333015
2022-10-01,-6.666666508,-7
2022-11-01,-7.666666508,-5
2022-12-01,-7.333333492,-9
2023-01-01,-6,-9
2023-02-01,-8.333333015,-7.333333492
2023-03-01,-9.333333015,-8
2023-04-01,-11,-12
2023-05-01,-10,-15.33333302
2023-06-01,-10,-11.66666698
2023-07-01,-8.666666985,-6
2023-08-01,-7.333333492,-1.666666627
2023-09-01,-4.666666508,-.3333333433
2023-10-01,-.6666666865,-2
2023-11-01,-.6666666865,-3
2023-12-01,-4.666666508,-3.333333254
2024-01-01,-9.666666985,-.6666666865
2024-02-01,-9.666666985,-4.333333492
2024-03-01,-10,-5.333333492
2024-04-01,-8,-8.666666985
2024-05-01,-6.333333492,-3.666666746
2024-06-01,-5.666666508,-4.333333492
2024-07-01,-9.666666985,.3333333433
2024-08-01,-15.33333302,-4.333333492
2024-09-01,-19,-2.333333254
2024-10-01,-18,-3
2024-11-01,-16.33333397,3.666666746
2024-12-01,-12.66666698,11.66666698
2025-01-01,-9.333333015,12
2025-02-01,-2.666666746,12.66666698
2025-03-01,-.6666666865,3.666666746
2025-04-01,-3.666666746,0
2025-05-01,-8.666666985,-7.333333492
2025-06-01,-9.666666985,-7.333333492

Economic Research

Featured

Publications Arrow icon .st0{fill:none;stroke-width:1.5;stroke-miterlimit:10;}

Data & Analysis Arrow icon .st0{fill:none;stroke-width:1.5;stroke-miterlimit:10;}

Fifth District Surveys of Manufacturing and Service Sector Activity

Publications

Data & Analysis