The Benefits of Commitment to a Currency Peg: Aggregate Lessons from the Regional Effects of the 1896 U.S. Presidential Election
Review of Economics and Statistics
Forthcoming
Economic Research
We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.
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Article
Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances
January 2020, No. 20-01
By Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik
Capital flows from emerging markets to developed economies can contribute to the formation of bubbles in asset prices, such as the U.S. housing boom of the early 2000s.
Speech
National and Regional Economic Outlook
December 2019
Waddell provided an overview of economic conditions to the Virginia State Senate Finance Committee.
An Heterogeneous-Agent New-Monetarist Model with an Application to Unemployment
Journal of Monetary Economics
Forthcoming
Guillaume Rocheteau, Pierre-Olivier Weill and Russell Wong
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
January 17, 2020
The NEI was 7.3 percent in December 2019, unchanged from November 2019. It has declined by 0.4 percentage points since December 2018.
Month,HKL Nonemployment Index,HKL Nonemployment Index Including PTER,Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached (U-5),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached and PTER (U-6) 1994-01-01,10.02432476,11.09114527,6.6,8.1,11.8 1994-02-01,9.850390065,11.00695198,6.6,7.9,11.4 1994-03-01,9.744973613,10.95932546,6.5,7.7,11.4 1994-04-01,9.610944265,10.7958032,6.4,7.6,11.2 1994-05-01,9.399794489,10.62275015,6.1,7.2,10.8 1994-06-01,9.394291919,10.60695968,6.1,7.3,10.9 1994-07-01,9.33558045,10.49671669,6.1,7.3,10.7 1994-08-01,9.284344995,10.4031401,6,7.2,10.5 1994-09-01,9.195911048,10.30349095,5.9,7.1,10.4 1994-10-01,9.120752437,10.2606044,5.8,6.9,10.3 1994-11-01,9.020843713,10.17143265,5.6,6.7,10.1 1994-12-01,8.940417614,10.05759671,5.5,6.7,10 1995-01-01,8.96129841,10.15530946,5.6,6.8,10.2 1995-02-01,8.890781541,9.972418432,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-03-01,8.92679927,10.03009881,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-04-01,9.01670194,10.10801712,5.8,6.7,10 1995-05-01,9.05589802,10.19209525,5.6,6.6,10 1995-06-01,8.995001518,10.1164907,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-07-01,8.981460217,10.1170639,5.7,6.7,10.1 1995-08-01,9.021107609,10.16619762,5.7,6.7,10 1995-09-01,9.012183165,10.16129505,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-10-01,9.004802686,10.12635735,5.5,6.6,9.9 1995-11-01,8.992020975,10.12803356,5.6,6.6,10 1995-12-01,9.013490181,10.12236833,5.6,6.7,10 1996-01-01,8.984760436,10.02791712,5.6,6.8,9.8 1996-02-01,8.962169013,10.04644325,5.5,6.7,10 1996-03-01,8.897374474,9.993016048,5.5,6.6,9.8 1996-04-01,8.888667142,9.971512279,5.6,6.6,9.9 1996-05-01,8.901289745,9.983089466,5.6,6.5,9.7 1996-06-01,8.75578778,9.82714948,5.3,6.4,9.6 1996-07-01,8.762108891,9.86884356,5.5,6.5,9.7 1996-08-01,8.675259306,9.774363529,5.1,6.1,9.3 1996-09-01,8.612705027,9.696288044,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-10-01,8.660754751,9.743913211,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-11-01,8.741467368,9.749244849,5.4,6.4,9.3 1996-12-01,8.667573367,9.747525204,5.4,6.3,9.5 1997-01-01,8.664550993,9.729175194,5.3,6.4,9.4 1997-02-01,8.664632354,9.699749034,5.2,6.3,9.4 1997-03-01,8.575116901,9.586414325,5.2,6.1,9.1 1997-04-01,8.473122101,9.516764561,5.1,6,9.2 1997-05-01,8.463064767,9.461550193,4.9,5.8,8.8 1997-06-01,8.422774334,9.404894992,5,5.9,8.8 1997-07-01,8.290845196,9.304665151,4.9,5.7,8.6 1997-08-01,8.253624357,9.251374039,4.8,5.7,8.6 1997-09-01,8.330966563,9.309307151,4.9,5.8,8.7 1997-10-01,8.22893263,9.2068611,4.7,5.6,8.4 1997-11-01,8.198197889,9.171138939,4.6,5.5,8.3 1997-12-01,8.224072594,9.166933268,4.7,5.7,8.4 1998-01-01,8.143824657,9.123698864,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-02-01,8.095499429,9.037153331,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-03-01,8.145033111,9.083792621,4.7,5.6,8.4 1998-04-01,7.977791907,8.859614721,4.3,5.2,7.9 1998-05-01,7.990406216,8.908131579,4.4,5.2,7.9 1998-06-01,8.057905684,8.979149322,4.5,5.3,8 1998-07-01,8.116174686,9.064579049,4.5,5.4,8.1 1998-08-01,8.089483529,8.957381272,4.5,5.3,7.9 1998-09-01,8.039205954,8.878391482,4.6,5.4,7.9 1998-10-01,8.054794831,8.8943354,4.5,5.3,7.8 1998-11-01,7.957809044,8.763815148,4.4,5.2,7.6 1998-12-01,7.933308498,8.758073583,4.4,5.1,7.6 1999-01-01,7.916387416,8.760610812,4.3,5.2,7.7 1999-02-01,7.95696111,8.783525859,4.4,5.3,7.7 1999-03-01,7.906199872,8.761972533,4.2,5,7.6 1999-04-01,8.087717667,8.879671305,4.3,5.2,7.6 1999-05-01,7.923961656,8.75388988,4.2,5,7.4 1999-06-01,7.945595146,8.764250028,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-07-01,7.892279252,8.718569739,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-08-01,7.863965331,8.665397668,4.2,5,7.3 1999-09-01,7.880501377,8.67236926,4.2,5,7.4 1999-10-01,7.777094252,8.539791599,4.1,4.9,7.2 1999-11-01,7.747840242,8.506990145,4.1,4.8,7.1 1999-12-01,7.699584827,8.480529941,4,4.8,7.1 2000-01-01,7.643176969,8.40286362,4,4.8,7.1 2000-02-01,7.757417559,8.503598066,4.1,5,7.2 2000-03-01,7.780777741,8.541306829,4,4.8,7.1 2000-04-01,7.654798654,8.378663406,3.8,4.7,6.9 2000-05-01,7.831030818,8.617862136,4,4.8,7.1 2000-06-01,7.673727071,8.423692893,4,4.7,7 2000-07-01,7.687311825,8.442436575,4,4.8,7 2000-08-01,7.718985301,8.492911608,4.1,4.8,7.1 2000-09-01,7.682440824,8.442225193,3.9,4.7,7 2000-10-01,7.668022642,8.419949284,3.9,4.6,6.8 2000-11-01,7.702738498,8.492409396,3.9,4.7,7.1 2000-12-01,7.686830392,8.436860988,3.9,4.7,6.9 2001-01-01,7.77808322,8.556279711,4.2,5,7.3 2001-02-01,7.80985546,8.571685125,4.2,5.1,7.4 2001-03-01,7.870183864,8.633816904,4.3,5,7.3 2001-04-01,8.020654107,8.769407309,4.4,5.1,7.4 2001-05-01,8.109683948,8.923745584,4.3,5.1,7.5 2001-06-01,8.189054673,9.069696147,4.5,5.3,7.9 2001-07-01,8.143816182,8.985580968,4.6,5.4,7.8 2001-08-01,8.458950261,9.272460421,4.9,5.8,8.1 2001-09-01,8.429814883,9.4092014,5,5.8,8.7 2001-10-01,8.693426165,9.718705834,5.3,6.2,9.3 2001-11-01,8.781966996,9.75051207,5.5,6.4,9.4 2001-12-01,8.891885828,9.899562581,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-01-01,8.967747454,9.904729069,5.7,6.7,9.5 2002-02-01,8.872354225,9.847909778,5.7,6.6,9.5 2002-03-01,8.85670918,9.801675964,5.7,6.6,9.4 2002-04-01,8.924221865,9.875086837,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-05-01,8.849369401,9.80371059,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-06-01,8.83822332,9.775086225,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-07-01,8.855070444,9.823089848,5.8,6.8,9.6 2002-08-01,8.79132918,9.817907665,5.7,6.7,9.6 2002-09-01,8.755238828,9.747204208,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-10-01,8.730092943,9.722093846,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-11-01,8.87144527,9.831103245,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-12-01,8.802635123,9.78087422,6,6.9,9.8 2003-01-01,8.84931562,9.893239372,5.8,6.9,10 2003-02-01,8.874682315,9.954547697,5.9,6.9,10.2 2003-03-01,8.986829292,10.04565566,5.9,6.9,10 2003-04-01,8.941334463,10.01470697,6,6.9,10.2 2003-05-01,9.016472441,10.06317625,6.1,7,10.1 2003-06-01,9.055295906,10.1020419,6.3,7.2,10.3 2003-07-01,9.024097684,10.08824927,6.2,7.1,10.3 2003-08-01,8.999768705,10.03794389,6.1,7.1,10.1 2003-09-01,8.987373173,10.0894473,6.1,7.1,10.4 2003-10-01,8.975132954,10.04761752,6,7,10.2 2003-11-01,8.839927692,9.903028097,5.8,6.8,10 2003-12-01,8.826701383,9.894476384,5.7,6.6,9.8 2004-01-01,8.767843858,9.82965704,5.7,6.8,9.9 2004-02-01,8.720390177,9.730045794,5.6,6.6,9.7 2004-03-01,8.846301203,9.914787618,5.8,6.8,10 2004-04-01,8.718901327,9.729488784,5.6,6.5,9.6 2004-05-01,8.711851742,9.749523083,5.6,6.6,9.6 2004-06-01,8.689000559,9.68874262,5.6,6.6,9.5 2004-07-01,8.680349396,9.681870956,5.5,6.5,9.5 2004-08-01,8.651259081,9.680783522,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-09-01,8.634739027,9.640049583,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-10-01,8.671658133,9.735311468,5.5,6.5,9.7 2004-11-01,8.624599614,9.615416829,5.4,6.3,9.4 2004-12-01,8.611058554,9.600083284,5.4,6.3,9.2 2005-01-01,8.561582634,9.535734659,5.3,6.4,9.3 2005-02-01,8.621776481,9.565530222,5.4,6.4,9.3 2005-03-01,8.545750232,9.525363129,5.2,6.2,9.1 2005-04-01,8.506001354,9.433074151,5.2,6.1,8.9 2005-05-01,8.427030346,9.391603688,5.1,6,8.9 2005-06-01,8.458912587,9.443781702,5,6,9 2005-07-01,8.371603844,9.346013503,5,5.9,8.8 2005-08-01,8.285737513,9.299814256,4.9,5.9,8.9 2005-09-01,8.433234824,9.468456303,5,5.9,9 2005-10-01,8.393125731,9.333336355,5,5.9,8.7 2005-11-01,8.456763302,9.363906603,5,5.9,8.7 2005-12-01,8.409978705,9.3120311,4.9,5.8,8.6 2006-01-01,8.297023617,9.19701894,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-02-01,8.292595807,9.2112143,4.8,5.7,8.4 2006-03-01,8.189821243,9.064812661,4.7,5.6,8.2 2006-04-01,8.325251625,9.152936056,4.7,5.5,8.1 2006-05-01,8.146218706,9.05079336,4.6,5.5,8.2 2006-06-01,8.138749157,9.080253637,4.6,5.6,8.4 2006-07-01,8.198660347,9.138295152,4.7,5.7,8.5 2006-08-01,8.16630368,9.104065193,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-09-01,8.151913408,9.068899881,4.5,5.3,8 2006-10-01,8.115114969,9.06542503,4.4,5.3,8.2 2006-11-01,8.166117656,9.058894845,4.5,5.4,8.1 2006-12-01,8.065293973,8.971417599,4.4,5.2,7.9 2007-01-01,8.140998144,9.059216063,4.6,5.6,8.4 2007-02-01,8.112329979,9.02055909,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-03-01,7.959794499,8.883247789,4.4,5.3,8 2007-04-01,8.239754666,9.143514344,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-05-01,8.191188053,9.161130705,4.4,5.3,8.2 2007-06-01,8.159718256,9.091257587,4.6,5.5,8.3 2007-07-01,8.178756648,9.12976463,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-08-01,8.20606571,9.217289799,4.6,5.5,8.4 2007-09-01,8.252074975,9.248096438,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-10-01,8.248813247,9.189864575,4.7,5.6,8.4 2007-11-01,8.167422829,9.118310913,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-12-01,8.337891115,9.319605824,5,5.8,8.8 2008-01-01,8.351518139,9.389939313,5,6,9.2 2008-02-01,8.341008974,9.384443783,4.9,5.9,9 2008-03-01,8.45970865,9.512396239,5.1,5.9,9.1 2008-04-01,8.489257912,9.574606004,5,5.8,9.2 2008-05-01,8.643845137,9.7790824,5.4,6.3,9.7 2008-06-01,8.697675866,9.883451476,5.6,6.5,10.1 2008-07-01,8.88138223,10.1666656,5.8,6.7,10.5 2008-08-01,9.027207053,10.29922492,6.1,7.1,10.8 2008-09-01,9.114668002,10.4407775,6.1,7.1,11 2008-10-01,9.25370259,10.68269984,6.5,7.5,11.8 2008-11-01,9.505366202,11.04462183,6.8,8,12.6 2008-12-01,9.77859914,11.47941334,7.3,8.4,13.6 2009-01-01,10.21097138,11.94025436,7.8,9.1,14.2 2009-02-01,10.42921293,12.28996823,8.3,9.5,15.2 2009-03-01,10.62296521,12.56163879,8.7,9.9,15.8 2009-04-01,10.72139999,12.5769946,9,10.2,15.9 2009-05-01,10.92089323,12.85183417,9.4,10.6,16.5 2009-06-01,10.96302571,12.89389771,9.5,10.8,16.5 2009-07-01,10.80133542,12.73313701,9.5,10.8,16.4 2009-08-01,10.81488915,12.73456611,9.6,10.9,16.7 2009-09-01,10.88619034,12.74593413,9.8,11,16.7 2009-10-01,10.99956167,12.89875226,10,11.4,17.1 2009-11-01,10.85536473,12.75960766,9.9,11.2,17.1 2009-12-01,10.91900242,12.82469699,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-01-01,10.83057154,12.63930179,9.8,11.3,16.7 2010-02-01,10.84020692,12.71774426,9.8,11.3,17 2010-03-01,10.81513236,12.75249786,9.9,11.2,17.1 2010-04-01,10.66460579,12.58338613,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-05-01,10.55281339,12.41184212,9.6,10.9,16.6 2010-06-01,10.47668192,12.30219206,9.4,10.9,16.4 2010-07-01,10.54051143,12.37973938,9.4,11,16.4 2010-08-01,10.61140412,12.45574761,9.5,10.9,16.5 2010-09-01,10.64032018,12.53577965,9.5,10.9,16.8 2010-10-01,10.59213023,12.45116616,9.4,11,16.6 2010-11-01,10.74059321,12.57954405,9.8,11.2,16.9 2010-12-01,10.54386964,12.40574338,9.3,10.9,16.6 2011-01-01,10.45970559,12.24011138,9.1,10.8,16.2 2011-02-01,10.40541389,12.17794418,9,10.6,16 2011-03-01,10.32010831,12.13064339,9,10.4,15.9 2011-04-01,10.43919011,12.25091852,9.1,10.5,16.1 2011-05-01,10.37777672,12.17794491,9,10.3,15.8 2011-06-01,10.48345085,12.26275868,9.1,10.7,16.1 2011-07-01,10.46888475,12.23474003,9,10.6,15.9 2011-08-01,10.40510254,12.21635634,9,10.5,16.1 2011-09-01,10.36794713,12.21048654,9,10.5,16.4 2011-10-01,10.31847934,12.12549644,8.8,10.3,15.8 2011-11-01,10.2445947,11.99056512,8.6,10.1,15.5 2011-12-01,10.15857688,11.85534943,8.5,10,15.2 2012-01-01,10.0468014,11.75043047,8.3,9.9,15.2 2012-02-01,10.02517501,11.73316922,8.3,9.8,15 2012-03-01,10.02925964,11.6432253,8.2,9.6,14.5 2012-04-01,10.0308765,11.66791985,8.2,9.6,14.6 2012-05-01,9.991667537,11.67370934,8.2,9.6,14.7 2012-06-01,10.02669456,11.70336644,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-07-01,10.0378631,11.71711123,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-08-01,10.09843818,11.71605738,8.1,9.6,14.6 2012-09-01,9.86099348,11.57593673,7.8,9.3,14.8 2012-10-01,9.831904828,11.5328029,7.8,9.2,14.4 2012-11-01,9.89082911,11.55640356,7.7,9.2,14.4 2012-12-01,9.943875775,11.57267437,7.9,9.4,14.4 2013-01-01,10.05610751,11.68319999,8,9.4,14.6 2013-02-01,9.873167372,11.5474264,7.7,9.2,14.4 2013-03-01,9.810847014,11.38723524,7.5,8.9,13.8 2013-04-01,9.819887001,11.44786456,7.6,8.9,14 2013-05-01,9.820539583,11.43253955,7.5,8.8,13.8 2013-06-01,9.794046769,11.45342853,7.5,9.1,14.2 2013-07-01,9.637810131,11.28449492,7.3,8.7,13.8 2013-08-01,9.544373201,11.1115483,7.2,8.6,13.6 2013-09-01,9.527198737,11.10890501,7.2,8.6,13.5 2013-10-01,9.600636613,11.25846608,7.2,8.5,13.6 2013-11-01,9.391379116,10.95929105,6.9,8.2,13.1 2013-12-01,9.32288173,10.91378058,6.7,8.1,13.1 2014-01-01,9.28614431,10.7318744,6.6,8.1,12.7 2014-02-01,9.305191671,10.78933035,6.7,8,12.6 2014-03-01,9.2932213,10.79318412,6.7,7.9,12.6 2014-04-01,9.121588368,10.64122329,6.2,7.5,12.3 2014-05-01,9.190635087,10.64029198,6.3,7.6,12.2 2014-06-01,9.088441841,10.59842342,6.1,7.3,12 2014-07-01,9.128436949,10.61744693,6.2,7.5,12.1 2014-08-01,9.158501652,10.59439895,6.1,7.4,12 2014-09-01,9.069341865,10.48007406,5.9,7.3,11.7 2014-10-01,8.931844487,10.39452063,5.7,7.1,11.5 2014-11-01,8.997334311,10.38446855,5.8,7.1,11.4 2014-12-01,8.869673113,10.24635995,5.6,6.9,11.2 2015-01-01,8.906473787,10.23918288,5.7,7,11.3 2015-02-01,8.854416867,10.19299153,5.5,6.8,11 2015-03-01,8.799761345,10.12141547,5.4,6.7,10.8 2015-04-01,8.795636283,10.11552069,5.4,6.7,10.9 2015-05-01,8.75466099,10.05768709,5.6,6.7,10.9 2015-06-01,8.726916685,10.00874497,5.3,6.4,10.4 2015-07-01,8.724448463,9.965865186,5.2,6.4,10.3 2015-08-01,8.547730307,9.832608967,5.1,6.2,10.2 2015-09-01,8.616870374,9.814137189,5,6.2,10 2015-10-01,8.607789844,9.805669603,5,6.2,9.8 2015-11-01,8.574309977,9.800468758,5.1,6.1,10 2015-12-01,8.502261899,9.708121731,5,6.1,9.9 2016-01-01,8.431678167,9.588336456,4.9,6.1,9.8 2016-02-01,8.429888503,9.615259802,4.9,6,9.7 2016-03-01,8.426874955,9.621989854,5,6,9.8 2016-04-01,8.481162244,9.664083517,5,6,9.8 2016-05-01,8.387726611,9.648330868,4.8,5.8,9.9 2016-06-01,8.377517642,9.515761422,4.9,5.9,9.5 2016-07-01,8.385598544,9.545690123,4.8,6,9.7 2016-08-01,8.35857407,9.561412013,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-09-01,8.504850144,9.665223583,5,6.1,9.7 2016-10-01,8.491220998,9.703323699,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-11-01,8.331715783,9.459045812,4.7,5.8,9.4 2016-12-01,8.319931901,9.42143829,4.7,5.7,9.2 2017-01-01,8.296335371,9.410201249,4.7,5.7,9.3 2017-02-01,8.216172598,9.319054606,4.6,5.6,9.1 2017-03-01,8.144856212,9.214451539,4.4,5.4,8.8 2017-04-01,8.104144474,9.132745263,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-05-01,8.103024783,9.113877361,4.4,5.3,8.5 2017-06-01,8.022750666,9.057088593,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-07-01,7.974415163,9.000426237,4.3,5.2,8.5 2017-08-01,8.079157842,9.131006346,4.4,5.3,8.5 2017-09-01,7.936070681,8.942003582,4.2,5.2,8.3 2017-10-01,7.905234615,8.887055349,4.1,5,8 2017-11-01,7.912631069,8.861238978,4.2,5,8 2017-12-01,7.900688806,8.87364042,4.1,5,8.1 2018-01-01,7.867858013,8.830061973,4.1,5.1,8.1 2018-02-01,7.819532677,8.820334137,4.1,5,8.2 2018-03-01,7.821931066,8.785498397,4,4.9,7.9 2018-04-01,7.80906755,8.759194326,4,4.8,7.8 2018-05-01,7.754770764,8.698577132,3.8,4.7,7.7 2018-06-01,7.782400394,8.703473031,4,4.9,7.8 2018-07-01,7.679927281,8.560429955,3.8,4.7,7.5 2018-08-01,7.752566012,8.625160349,3.8,4.7,7.3 2018-09-01,7.692301947,8.583457468,3.7,4.7,7.5 2018-10-01,7.688918926,8.597997236,3.8,4.6,7.4 2018-11-01,7.635341905,8.559144121,3.7,4.7,7.6 2018-12-01,7.671528578,8.573196497,3.9,4.8,7.6 2019-01-01,7.794332867,8.779580669,4,4.9,8 2019-02-01,7.668292311,8.515580611,3.8,4.6,7.2 2019-03-01,7.658790517,8.527549029,3.8,4.6,7.3 2019-04-01,7.590720655,8.484276529,3.6,4.4,7.3 2019-05-01,7.570812294,8.398976479,3.6,4.5,7.1 2019-06-01,7.579185182,8.413710413,3.7,4.6,7.2 2019-07-01,7.645188569,8.392514084,3.7,4.6,7 2019-08-01,7.498165928,8.366992868,3.7,4.6,7.2 2019-09-01,7.362062031,8.184149222,3.5,4.3,6.9 2019-10-01,7.333436776,8.19415957,3.6,4.3,6.9 2019-11-01,7.342137874,8.173844301,3.5,4.3,6.9 2019-12-01,7.302161622,8.104835728,3.5,4.2,6.7
Being a Research Associate at the Richmond Fed
Research Associates help the Richmond Fed's economists with their research and policy memos for briefing the Bank's president on the state of the economy. For recent graduates thinking about applying to a Ph.D. program, this position is an ideal way to learn more about academic economic research.
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