An Heterogeneous-Agent New-Monetarist Model with an Application to Unemployment
Journal of Monetary Economics
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Article
Predicting Recessions
December 2019, No. 19-12
By Matthew Murphy, Jessie Romero and Roy H. Webb
How well have leading economic indicators predicted downturns during the past 60 years? Using in-sample statistical analysis, several indicators — particularly the spread between short and long-term yields on Treasury securities and the Conference Board LEI — have demonstrated significant predictive value.
Article
Special Survey of Hiring and Wages
December 13, 2019
By Joseph Mengedoth
Our fifth annual survey showed that a majority of Fifth District firms expect to hire or hold payrolls steady and plan to increase wages to attract and retain workers over the next 12 months.
Debt Limits and Credit Bubbles in General Equilibrium
October 2019, No. 19-19
V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Toan Phan and Yiannis Vailakis
What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs
October 2019, No. 19-18
Christoph Gortz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
December 12, 2019
The NEI was 7.3 percent in November 2019, unchanged from October 2019. It has declined by 0.3 percentage points since November 2018.
Month,HKL Nonemployment Index,HKL Nonemployment Index Including PTER,Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached (U-5),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached and PTER (U-6) 1994-01-01,10.02432476,11.09114527,6.6,8.1,11.8 1994-02-01,9.850390065,11.00695198,6.6,7.9,11.4 1994-03-01,9.744973613,10.95932546,6.5,7.7,11.4 1994-04-01,9.610944265,10.7958032,6.4,7.6,11.2 1994-05-01,9.399794489,10.62275015,6.1,7.2,10.8 1994-06-01,9.394291919,10.60695968,6.1,7.3,10.9 1994-07-01,9.33558045,10.49671669,6.1,7.3,10.7 1994-08-01,9.284344995,10.4031401,6,7.2,10.5 1994-09-01,9.195911048,10.30349095,5.9,7.1,10.4 1994-10-01,9.120752437,10.2606044,5.8,6.9,10.3 1994-11-01,9.020843713,10.17143265,5.6,6.7,10.1 1994-12-01,8.940417614,10.05759671,5.5,6.7,10 1995-01-01,8.96129841,10.15530946,5.6,6.8,10.2 1995-02-01,8.890781541,9.972418432,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-03-01,8.92679927,10.03009881,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-04-01,9.01670194,10.10801712,5.8,6.7,10 1995-05-01,9.05589802,10.19209525,5.6,6.6,10 1995-06-01,8.995001518,10.1164907,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-07-01,8.981460217,10.1170639,5.7,6.7,10.1 1995-08-01,9.021107609,10.16619762,5.7,6.7,10 1995-09-01,9.012183165,10.16129505,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-10-01,9.004802686,10.12635735,5.5,6.6,9.9 1995-11-01,8.992020975,10.12803356,5.6,6.6,10 1995-12-01,9.013490181,10.12236833,5.6,6.7,10 1996-01-01,8.984760436,10.02791712,5.6,6.8,9.8 1996-02-01,8.962169013,10.04644325,5.5,6.7,10 1996-03-01,8.897374474,9.993016048,5.5,6.6,9.8 1996-04-01,8.888667142,9.971512279,5.6,6.6,9.9 1996-05-01,8.901289745,9.983089466,5.6,6.5,9.7 1996-06-01,8.75578778,9.82714948,5.3,6.4,9.6 1996-07-01,8.762108891,9.86884356,5.5,6.5,9.7 1996-08-01,8.675259306,9.774363529,5.1,6.1,9.3 1996-09-01,8.612705027,9.696288044,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-10-01,8.660754751,9.743913211,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-11-01,8.741467368,9.749244849,5.4,6.4,9.3 1996-12-01,8.667573367,9.747525204,5.4,6.3,9.5 1997-01-01,8.664550993,9.729175194,5.3,6.4,9.4 1997-02-01,8.664632354,9.699749034,5.2,6.3,9.4 1997-03-01,8.575116901,9.586414325,5.2,6.1,9.1 1997-04-01,8.473122102,9.516764561,5.1,6,9.2 1997-05-01,8.463064767,9.461550193,4.9,5.8,8.8 1997-06-01,8.422774334,9.404894992,5,5.9,8.8 1997-07-01,8.290845196,9.304665151,4.9,5.7,8.6 1997-08-01,8.253624356,9.251374039,4.8,5.7,8.6 1997-09-01,8.330966563,9.309307151,4.9,5.8,8.7 1997-10-01,8.22893263,9.2068611,4.7,5.6,8.4 1997-11-01,8.198197889,9.171138939,4.6,5.5,8.3 1997-12-01,8.224072594,9.166933268,4.7,5.7,8.4 1998-01-01,8.143824658,9.123698864,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-02-01,8.095499429,9.037153331,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-03-01,8.145033112,9.083792621,4.7,5.6,8.4 1998-04-01,7.977791907,8.859614721,4.3,5.2,7.9 1998-05-01,7.990406216,8.908131579,4.4,5.2,7.9 1998-06-01,8.057905684,8.979149322,4.5,5.3,8 1998-07-01,8.116174685,9.064579049,4.5,5.4,8.1 1998-08-01,8.089483528,8.957381272,4.5,5.3,7.9 1998-09-01,8.039205954,8.878391482,4.6,5.4,7.9 1998-10-01,8.054794831,8.8943354,4.5,5.3,7.8 1998-11-01,7.957809044,8.763815148,4.4,5.2,7.6 1998-12-01,7.933308498,8.758073583,4.4,5.1,7.6 1999-01-01,7.916387418,8.760610812,4.3,5.2,7.7 1999-02-01,7.95696111,8.783525859,4.4,5.3,7.7 1999-03-01,7.906199872,8.761972533,4.2,5,7.6 1999-04-01,8.087717668,8.879671305,4.3,5.2,7.6 1999-05-01,7.923961655,8.75388988,4.2,5,7.4 1999-06-01,7.945595146,8.764250028,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-07-01,7.892279251,8.718569739,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-08-01,7.86396533,8.665397668,4.2,5,7.3 1999-09-01,7.880501376,8.67236926,4.2,5,7.4 1999-10-01,7.777094251,8.539791599,4.1,4.9,7.2 1999-11-01,7.747840245,8.506990145,4.1,4.8,7.1 1999-12-01,7.699584825,8.480529941,4,4.8,7.1 2000-01-01,7.643176971,8.40286362,4,4.8,7.1 2000-02-01,7.757417559,8.503598066,4.1,5,7.2 2000-03-01,7.780777742,8.541306829,4,4.8,7.1 2000-04-01,7.654798656,8.378663406,3.8,4.7,6.9 2000-05-01,7.831030819,8.617862135,4,4.8,7.1 2000-06-01,7.67372707,8.423692892,4,4.7,7 2000-07-01,7.687311822,8.442436575,4,4.8,7 2000-08-01,7.718985297,8.492911608,4.1,4.8,7.1 2000-09-01,7.68244082,8.442225193,3.9,4.7,7 2000-10-01,7.668022639,8.419949285,3.9,4.6,6.8 2000-11-01,7.702738505,8.492409396,3.9,4.7,7.1 2000-12-01,7.686830389,8.436860989,3.9,4.7,6.9 2001-01-01,7.778083222,8.556279711,4.2,5,7.3 2001-02-01,7.809855462,8.571685125,4.2,5.1,7.4 2001-03-01,7.870183875,8.633816903,4.3,5,7.3 2001-04-01,8.020654115,8.769407308,4.4,5.1,7.4 2001-05-01,8.109683952,8.923745584,4.3,5.1,7.5 2001-06-01,8.189054667,9.069696147,4.5,5.3,7.9 2001-07-01,8.143816164,8.985580968,4.6,5.4,7.8 2001-08-01,8.458950238,9.272460421,4.9,5.8,8.1 2001-09-01,8.429814865,9.409201401,5,5.8,8.7 2001-10-01,8.693426162,9.718705836,5.3,6.2,9.3 2001-11-01,8.781967025,9.750512072,5.5,6.4,9.4 2001-12-01,8.891885857,9.899562582,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-01-01,8.96774749,9.904729068,5.7,6.7,9.5 2002-02-01,8.87235425,9.847909776,5.7,6.6,9.5 2002-03-01,8.856709201,9.801675961,5.7,6.6,9.4 2002-04-01,8.924221846,9.875086835,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-05-01,8.849369362,9.80371059,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-06-01,8.83822327,9.775086226,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-07-01,8.855070374,9.823089848,5.8,6.8,9.6 2002-08-01,8.791329029,9.817907665,5.7,6.7,9.6 2002-09-01,8.755238824,9.74720421,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-10-01,8.730093021,9.722093851,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-11-01,8.871445444,9.831103249,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-12-01,8.802635296,9.780874222,6,6.9,9.8 2003-01-01,8.849315754,9.893239374,5.8,6.9,10 2003-02-01,8.874682339,9.954547702,5.9,6.9,10.2 2003-03-01,8.986829229,10.04565563,5.9,6.9,10 2003-04-01,8.941334385,10.01470698,6,6.9,10.2 2003-05-01,9.01647226,10.06317626,6.1,7,10.1 2003-06-01,9.055295754,10.1020419,6.3,7.2,10.3 2003-07-01,9.024097501,10.08824927,6.2,7.1,10.3 2003-08-01,8.999768351,10.03794389,6.1,7.1,10.1 2003-09-01,8.987373103,10.08944732,6.1,7.1,10.4 2003-10-01,8.975133137,10.04761754,6,7,10.2 2003-11-01,8.839928119,9.903028109,5.8,6.8,10 2003-12-01,8.826701751,9.894476391,5.7,6.6,9.8 2004-01-01,8.767844161,9.829657043,5.7,6.8,9.9 2004-02-01,8.720390448,9.730045795,5.6,6.6,9.7 2004-03-01,8.846301749,9.91478753,5.8,6.8,10 2004-04-01,8.718900274,9.729488829,5.6,6.5,9.6 2004-05-01,8.711852028,9.74952306,5.6,6.6,9.6 2004-06-01,8.689000362,9.688742595,5.6,6.6,9.5 2004-07-01,8.680348736,9.681870948,5.5,6.5,9.5 2004-08-01,8.651257866,9.680783547,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-09-01,8.634738067,9.640049639,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-10-01,8.671657525,9.735311533,5.5,6.5,9.7 2004-11-01,8.624602494,9.615416871,5.4,6.3,9.4 2004-12-01,8.611058763,9.600083282,5.4,6.3,9.2 2005-01-01,8.561583165,9.535734623,5.3,6.4,9.3 2005-02-01,8.621777476,9.565530154,5.4,6.4,9.3 2005-03-01,8.545751864,9.525362939,5.2,6.2,9.1 2005-04-01,8.505999825,9.433074222,5.2,6.1,8.9 2005-05-01,8.427031305,9.39160369,5.1,6,8.9 2005-06-01,8.458911994,9.44378173,5,6,9 2005-07-01,8.371601714,9.346013517,5,5.9,8.8 2005-08-01,8.285734471,9.299814252,4.9,5.9,8.9 2005-09-01,8.433232473,9.46845648,5,5.9,9 2005-10-01,8.393123703,9.333336562,5,5.9,8.7 2005-11-01,8.45676901,9.363906623,5,5.9,8.7 2005-12-01,8.409978978,9.312031046,4.9,5.8,8.6 2006-01-01,8.297026056,9.197018817,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-02-01,8.292597655,9.211214078,4.8,5.7,8.4 2006-03-01,8.189824613,9.064812214,4.7,5.6,8.2 2006-04-01,8.325249551,9.15293618,4.7,5.5,8.1 2006-05-01,8.146220413,9.050793503,4.6,5.5,8.2 2006-06-01,8.138749796,9.080253862,4.6,5.6,8.4 2006-07-01,8.198659851,9.138295288,4.7,5.7,8.5 2006-08-01,8.166285388,9.104065182,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-09-01,8.151913776,9.068900132,4.5,5.3,8 2006-10-01,8.115113701,9.065425365,4.4,5.3,8.2 2006-11-01,8.166126226,9.058894924,4.5,5.4,8.1 2006-12-01,8.065294486,8.97141749,4.4,5.2,7.9 2007-01-01,8.141003383,9.059215725,4.6,5.6,8.4 2007-02-01,8.112332713,9.020558625,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-03-01,7.959799241,8.883246886,4.4,5.3,8 2007-04-01,8.239755089,9.143513878,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-05-01,8.191193371,9.161130089,4.4,5.3,8.2 2007-06-01,8.159714509,9.091260108,4.6,5.5,8.3 2007-07-01,8.178759207,9.129764536,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-08-01,8.206031133,9.217290088,4.6,5.5,8.4 2007-09-01,8.252075495,9.248097733,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-10-01,8.248810916,9.189865798,4.7,5.6,8.4 2007-11-01,8.167431727,9.118311578,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-12-01,8.337894245,9.319604373,5,5.8,8.8 2008-01-01,8.351529528,9.389937009,5,6,9.2 2008-02-01,8.341016172,9.384441307,4.9,5.9,9 2008-03-01,8.4597135,9.512393824,5.1,5.9,9.1 2008-04-01,8.489262931,9.574605016,5,5.8,9.2 2008-05-01,8.643855765,9.779081937,5.4,6.3,9.7 2008-06-01,8.697668427,9.883458162,5.6,6.5,10.1 2008-07-01,8.881388347,10.16666704,5.8,6.7,10.5 2008-08-01,9.027148734,10.29922736,6.1,7.1,10.8 2008-09-01,9.114662612,10.44078214,6.1,7.1,11 2008-10-01,9.253692839,10.68270369,6.5,7.5,11.8 2008-11-01,9.505373828,11.04462282,6.8,8,12.6 2008-12-01,9.778608892,11.47940646,7.3,8.4,13.6 2009-01-01,10.21099701,11.94024388,7.8,9.1,14.2 2009-02-01,10.42923387,12.28995764,8.3,9.5,15.2 2009-03-01,10.62297275,12.56163195,8.7,9.9,15.8 2009-04-01,10.72141425,12.57699423,9,10.2,15.9 2009-05-01,10.92091442,12.85183738,9.4,10.6,16.5 2009-06-01,10.96301543,12.89391447,9.5,10.8,16.5 2009-07-01,10.80135063,12.73314486,9.5,10.8,16.4 2009-08-01,10.8147921,12.73457616,9.6,10.9,16.7 2009-09-01,10.88618706,12.74594453,9.8,11,16.7 2009-10-01,10.99948755,12.8987613,10,11.4,17.1 2009-11-01,10.85536592,12.75961589,9.9,11.2,17.1 2009-12-01,10.91900873,12.82469443,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-01-01,10.83068254,12.63923118,9.8,11.3,16.7 2010-02-01,10.84022511,12.71773626,9.8,11.3,17 2010-03-01,10.81513385,12.75249431,9.9,11.2,17.1 2010-04-01,10.66462982,12.58338274,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-05-01,10.55284894,12.41183998,9.6,10.9,16.6 2010-06-01,10.4766482,12.30225097,9.4,10.9,16.4 2010-07-01,10.5405466,12.37974726,9.4,11,16.4 2010-08-01,10.6112996,12.4557642,9.5,10.9,16.5 2010-09-01,10.64033615,12.53580018,9.5,10.9,16.8 2010-10-01,10.59193275,12.45118587,9.4,11,16.6 2010-11-01,10.74059953,12.57955935,9.8,11.2,16.9 2010-12-01,10.54387765,12.40574343,9.3,10.9,16.6 2011-01-01,10.45989328,12.23994537,9.1,10.8,16.2 2011-02-01,10.40542684,12.17793177,9,10.6,16 2011-03-01,10.32010843,12.13064033,9,10.4,15.9 2011-04-01,10.43922489,12.2509203,9.1,10.5,16.1 2011-05-01,10.37783242,12.17795811,9,10.3,15.8 2011-06-01,10.48340305,12.26288414,9.1,10.7,16.1 2011-07-01,10.46894976,12.23476276,9,10.6,15.9 2011-08-01,10.40501988,12.2163787,9,10.5,16.1 2011-09-01,10.36798482,12.21050808,9,10.5,16.4 2011-10-01,10.31807857,12.12551664,8.8,10.3,15.8 2011-11-01,10.24460769,11.99057767,8.6,10.1,15.5 2011-12-01,10.15858873,11.85533984,8.5,10,15.2 2012-01-01,10.04706307,11.75016206,8.3,9.9,15.2 2012-02-01,10.02518656,11.73313512,8.3,9.8,15 2012-03-01,10.0292657,11.64321663,8.2,9.6,14.5 2012-04-01,10.03093125,11.66794172,8.2,9.6,14.6 2012-05-01,9.991751243,11.67377184,8.2,9.6,14.7 2012-06-01,10.02664963,11.70358137,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-07-01,10.03793655,11.71716737,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-08-01,10.09845426,11.71607881,8.1,9.6,14.6 2012-09-01,9.860981167,11.57592825,7.8,9.3,14.8 2012-10-01,9.831318522,11.53279844,7.8,9.2,14.4 2012-11-01,9.890821988,11.55642143,7.7,9.2,14.4 2012-12-01,9.943897965,11.57268055,7.9,9.4,14.4 2013-01-01,10.05639416,11.68272152,8,9.4,14.6 2013-02-01,9.873203437,11.54739983,7.7,9.2,14.4 2013-03-01,9.810880107,11.38723536,7.5,8.9,13.8 2013-04-01,9.819982903,11.44788584,7.6,8.9,14 2013-05-01,9.820666483,11.43257499,7.5,8.8,13.8 2013-06-01,9.794039724,11.45403958,7.5,9.1,14.2 2013-07-01,9.637913349,11.28453613,7.3,8.7,13.8 2013-08-01,9.544568567,11.11159133,7.2,8.6,13.6 2013-09-01,9.527079905,11.10862848,7.2,8.6,13.5 2013-10-01,9.599619943,11.25848373,7.2,8.5,13.6 2013-11-01,9.391460166,10.95933251,6.9,8.2,13.1 2013-12-01,9.322929828,10.9137863,6.7,8.1,13.1 2014-01-01,9.286388294,10.73124518,6.6,8.1,12.7 2014-02-01,9.305177457,10.78927382,6.7,8,12.6 2014-03-01,9.293249163,10.79316078,6.7,7.9,12.6 2014-04-01,9.121747972,10.64125324,6.2,7.5,12.3 2014-05-01,9.190904582,10.64037319,6.3,7.6,12.2 2014-06-01,9.088624725,10.59945972,6.1,7.3,12 2014-07-01,9.12868692,10.61754886,6.2,7.5,12.1 2014-08-01,9.158779851,10.59442323,6.1,7.4,12 2014-09-01,9.069068495,10.47953234,5.9,7.3,11.7 2014-10-01,8.930525845,10.39451632,5.7,7.1,11.5 2014-11-01,8.997419943,10.3844948,5.8,7.1,11.4 2014-12-01,8.869658834,10.24631372,5.6,6.9,11.2 2015-01-01,8.906523938,10.2383863,5.7,7,11.3 2015-02-01,8.854192689,10.19278946,5.5,6.8,11 2015-03-01,8.799648969,10.12127551,5.4,6.7,10.8 2015-04-01,8.795919473,10.11558745,5.4,6.7,10.8 2015-05-01,8.75535382,10.05797452,5.6,6.7,10.9 2015-06-01,8.727702779,10.01035855,5.3,6.4,10.4 2015-07-01,8.725001181,9.966157383,5.2,6.4,10.3 2015-08-01,8.548069224,9.832638104,5.1,6.2,10.2 2015-09-01,8.616340745,9.813276361,5,6.2,10 2015-10-01,8.6060452,9.805524146,5,6.2,9.8 2015-11-01,8.574245135,9.800385054,5.1,6.1,10 2015-12-01,8.501983,9.707929971,5,6.1,9.9 2016-01-01,8.43141264,9.58745291,4.9,6.1,9.8 2016-02-01,8.429222583,9.614779167,4.9,6,9.7 2016-03-01,8.426344917,9.621654074,5,6,9.8 2016-04-01,8.481607072,9.664276274,5,6,9.7 2016-05-01,8.389490402,9.649085408,4.8,5.8,9.9 2016-06-01,8.379908953,9.517820995,4.9,6,9.5 2016-07-01,8.385492898,9.546294956,4.8,6,9.7 2016-08-01,8.359254461,9.561220587,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-09-01,8.504322258,9.663682454,5,6,9.7 2016-10-01,8.488622815,9.702931841,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-11-01,8.329877796,9.458876726,4.7,5.8,9.4 2016-12-01,8.321247992,9.422379766,4.7,5.7,9.2 2017-01-01,8.295677269,9.409031701,4.7,5.8,9.3 2017-02-01,8.214952741,9.318182405,4.7,5.7,9.1 2017-03-01,8.143815829,9.213796576,4.4,5.4,8.7 2017-04-01,8.104703045,9.132912141,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-05-01,8.105849261,9.114913866,4.4,5.2,8.5 2017-06-01,8.026739576,9.059541832,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-07-01,7.97341228,9.00123466,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-08-01,8.080212846,9.130553968,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-09-01,7.935613785,8.939731311,4.2,5.1,8.3 2017-10-01,7.901715893,8.886434879,4.1,5,8 2017-11-01,7.908844584,8.86096326,4.2,5,8 2017-12-01,7.904440386,8.876375081,4.1,5.1,8.1 2018-01-01,7.866870141,8.828674569,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-02-01,7.817790143,8.819085371,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-03-01,7.820379203,8.784514775,4,4.9,7.9 2018-04-01,7.809640854,8.759270823,3.9,4.7,7.8 2018-05-01,7.7584487,8.699790561,3.8,4.6,7.7 2018-06-01,7.787786611,8.705924252,4,4.9,7.8 2018-07-01,7.677666473,8.561217581,3.9,4.7,7.5 2018-08-01,7.753811294,8.624217022,3.8,4.7,7.4 2018-09-01,7.691946616,8.580364173,3.7,4.6,7.5 2018-10-01,7.684383063,8.597000619,3.8,4.6,7.5 2018-11-01,7.629279731,8.558628819,3.7,4.7,7.6 2018-12-01,7.679486695,8.579888215,3.9,4.8,7.6 2019-01-01,7.792994239,8.777776229,4,4.9,8.1 2019-02-01,7.666112594,8.513873871,3.8,4.7,7.3 2019-03-01,7.656865361,8.526113468,3.8,4.6,7.3 2019-04-01,7.591137018,8.484009597,3.6,4.4,7.3 2019-05-01,7.574584333,8.399987932,3.6,4.4,7.1 2019-06-01,7.584814141,8.415939101,3.7,4.6,7.2 2019-07-01,7.642529842,8.393404171,3.7,4.6,7 2019-08-01,7.499314234,8.365937274,3.7,4.6,7.2 2019-09-01,7.361650745,8.180966007,3.5,4.3,6.9 2019-10-01,7.328667786,8.193055534,3.6,4.3,7 2019-11-01,7.335383118,8.173263791,3.5,4.3,6.9
Being a Research Associate at the Richmond Fed
Research Associates help the Richmond Fed's economists with their research and policy memos for briefing the Bank's president on the state of the economy. For recent graduates thinking about applying to a Ph.D. program, this position is an ideal way to learn more about academic economic research.
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