Economic Research
We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.
Featured
Publication
Fifth District Firms Weigh In on Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
August 10, 2018
Joseph Mengedoth
Article
Cyclical Properties of Bank Margins: Small versus Large Banks
First Quarter 2018
Borys Grochulski, Daniel Schwam and Yuzhe Zhang
A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models
July 2018, No. 18-12
Fabio Canova and Christian Matthes
Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles
April 2018, No. 18-11
Julien Bengui and Toan Phan
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
August 13, 2018
The NEI was 7.7 percent in July 2018, edging down from June 2018. It has declined by 0.3 percentage points since July 2017.
Month,HKL Nonemployment Index,HKL Nonemployment Index Including PTER,Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached (U-5),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached and PTER (U-6) 1994-01-01,10.04882777,11.1156097,6.6,8.1,11.8 1994-02-01,9.878808728,11.0393364,6.6,7.9,11.4 1994-03-01,9.776793294,10.9875174,6.5,7.7,11.4 1994-04-01,9.64680933,10.82419169,6.4,7.6,11.2 1994-05-01,9.400411236,10.64822278,6.1,7.2,10.8 1994-06-01,9.430086981,10.63715519,6.1,7.3,10.9 1994-07-01,9.369132273,10.52586289,6.1,7.3,10.7 1994-08-01,9.313192636,10.43039756,6,7.2,10.5 1994-09-01,9.226412643,10.33435252,5.9,7.1,10.4 1994-10-01,9.149548417,10.28803118,5.8,6.9,10.3 1994-11-01,9.053952737,10.19948763,5.6,6.7,10.1 1994-12-01,8.968548487,10.08577753,5.5,6.7,10 1995-01-01,8.985998342,10.18000777,5.6,6.8,10.2 1995-02-01,8.917913142,10.00287606,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-03-01,8.957577419,10.05735088,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-04-01,9.050166577,10.13520354,5.8,6.7,10 1995-05-01,9.05924217,10.21730405,5.6,6.6,10 1995-06-01,9.029256303,10.14608778,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-07-01,9.013038206,10.14508555,5.7,6.7,10.1 1995-08-01,9.049606134,10.19363129,5.7,6.7,10 1995-09-01,9.042427257,10.19153573,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-10-01,9.034527776,10.15497273,5.5,6.6,9.9 1995-11-01,9.024295443,10.15591683,5.6,6.6,10 1995-12-01,9.041483378,10.15042758,5.6,6.7,10 1996-01-01,9.01117992,10.05364897,5.6,6.8,9.8 1996-02-01,8.990603177,10.07790324,5.5,6.7,10 1996-03-01,8.927528222,10.02025527,5.5,6.6,9.8 1996-04-01,8.92140668,9.999872884,5.6,6.6,9.9 1996-05-01,8.911283516,10.00843557,5.6,6.5,9.7 1996-06-01,8.787964987,9.857245934,5.3,6.4,9.6 1996-07-01,8.792022992,9.896752096,5.5,6.5,9.7 1996-08-01,8.704674795,9.803282235,5.1,6.1,9.3 1996-09-01,8.643311666,9.726503069,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-10-01,8.689254007,9.771848153,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-11-01,8.77321076,9.777538785,5.4,6.4,9.3 1996-12-01,8.695217452,9.775464582,5.4,6.3,9.5 1997-01-01,8.691257352,9.75369798,5.3,6.4,9.4 1997-02-01,8.69188569,9.729248914,5.2,6.3,9.4 1997-03-01,8.604205139,9.613023851,5.2,6.1,9.1 1997-04-01,8.504377598,9.546334717,5.1,6,9.2 1997-05-01,8.480555593,9.488318356,4.9,5.8,8.8 1997-06-01,8.452357786,9.434364145,5,5.9,8.8 1997-07-01,8.318994876,9.332005448,4.9,5.7,8.6 1997-08-01,8.281894879,9.279526365,4.8,5.7,8.6 1997-09-01,8.361344317,9.339437824,4.9,5.8,8.7 1997-10-01,8.257720112,9.23551618,4.7,5.6,8.4 1997-11-01,8.228764807,9.199008556,4.6,5.5,8.3 1997-12-01,8.251626703,9.195056005,4.7,5.7,8.4 1998-01-01,8.170679792,9.146993333,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-02-01,8.122302246,9.065324558,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-03-01,8.172850649,9.109930671,4.7,5.6,8.4 1998-04-01,8.00778501,8.890321318,4.3,5.2,7.9 1998-05-01,8.01369624,8.935536881,4.4,5.2,7.9 1998-06-01,8.084749466,9.00729375,4.5,5.3,8 1998-07-01,8.143799954,9.092466534,4.5,5.4,8.1 1998-08-01,8.116989719,8.985138133,4.5,5.3,7.9 1998-09-01,8.068471227,8.907004097,4.6,5.4,7.9 1998-10-01,8.081917617,8.921559912,4.5,5.3,7.8 1998-11-01,7.986948983,8.791436583,4.4,5.2,7.6 1998-12-01,7.959853365,8.785197759,4.4,5.1,7.6 1999-01-01,7.944528085,8.784369923,4.3,5.2,7.7 1999-02-01,7.984208693,8.811535972,4.4,5.3,7.7 1999-03-01,7.934631147,8.788814538,4.2,5,7.6 1999-04-01,8.118888199,8.912878854,4.3,5.2,7.6 1999-05-01,7.949104428,8.782170675,4.2,5,7.4 1999-06-01,7.973701269,8.793357083,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-07-01,7.919598398,8.746250058,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-08-01,7.891227015,8.692987401,4.2,5,7.3 1999-09-01,7.909192941,8.70046863,4.2,5,7.4 1999-10-01,7.804243506,8.566799578,4.1,4.9,7.2 1999-11-01,7.776042238,8.534562656,4.1,4.8,7.1 1999-12-01,7.726610814,8.507946705,4,4.8,7.1 2000-01-01,7.670743069,8.425855536,4,4.8,7.1 2000-02-01,7.785047442,8.531796446,4.1,5,7.2 2000-03-01,7.809538324,8.569165164,4,4.8,7.1 2000-04-01,7.684228751,8.410366754,3.8,4.7,6.9 2000-05-01,7.856720862,8.645845948,4,4.8,7.1 2000-06-01,7.700484413,8.451240789,4,4.7,7 2000-07-01,7.714695899,8.470225806,4,4.8,7 2000-08-01,7.745279548,8.519460942,4.1,4.8,7.1 2000-09-01,7.710817099,8.469953091,3.9,4.7,7 2000-10-01,7.695616838,8.447051269,3.9,4.6,6.8 2000-11-01,7.730440154,8.520255143,3.9,4.7,7.1 2000-12-01,7.714773105,8.465114171,3.9,4.7,6.9 2001-01-01,7.806352067,8.57965624,4.2,5,7.3 2001-02-01,7.837771662,8.600353038,4.2,5.1,7.4 2001-03-01,7.897258752,8.660484647,4.3,5,7.3 2001-04-01,8.04955892,8.801141003,4.4,5.1,7.4 2001-05-01,8.137200482,8.952809505,4.3,5.1,7.5 2001-06-01,8.217733487,9.099078904,4.5,5.3,7.9 2001-07-01,8.172748711,9.014746552,4.6,5.4,7.8 2001-08-01,8.489693887,9.303129068,4.9,5.8,8.1 2001-09-01,8.459152338,9.438201583,5,5.8,8.7 2001-10-01,8.722855011,9.747111925,5.3,6.2,9.3 2001-11-01,8.810924904,9.779538626,5.5,6.4,9.4 2001-12-01,8.921056715,9.928885441,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-01-01,8.998855368,9.93168785,5.7,6.7,9.5 2002-02-01,8.900950375,9.877336402,5.7,6.6,9.5 2002-03-01,8.885273176,9.830461927,5.7,6.6,9.4 2002-04-01,8.953935614,9.907324245,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-05-01,8.877334314,9.832431293,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-06-01,8.867098563,9.80461032,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-07-01,8.884454805,9.852626751,5.8,6.8,9.6 2002-08-01,8.820237352,9.846616382,5.7,6.7,9.6 2002-09-01,8.784145393,9.775767326,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-10-01,8.758700369,9.749498374,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-11-01,8.90019358,9.8600857,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-12-01,8.831131297,9.809335305,6,6.9,9.8 2003-01-01,8.87837063,9.91979673,5.8,6.9,10 2003-02-01,8.903646395,9.984572019,5.9,6.9,10.2 2003-03-01,9.016804264,10.07588616,5.9,6.9,10 2003-04-01,8.970006825,10.04494541,6,6.9,10.2 2003-05-01,9.045130467,10.09218669,6.1,7,10.1 2003-06-01,9.084463853,10.13162432,6.3,7.2,10.3 2003-07-01,9.053749296,10.11791839,6.2,7.1,10.3 2003-08-01,9.029495755,10.06741173,6.1,7.1,10.1 2003-09-01,9.016495134,10.11827107,6.1,7.1,10.4 2003-10-01,9.004858315,10.07608312,6,7,10.2 2003-11-01,8.868473562,9.931926366,5.8,6.8,10 2003-12-01,8.856215116,9.923692769,5.7,6.6,9.8 2004-01-01,8.797433353,9.858548218,5.7,6.8,9.9 2004-02-01,8.750529608,9.761142621,5.6,6.6,9.7 2004-03-01,8.876295623,9.94516648,5.8,6.8,10 2004-04-01,8.749378247,9.760058318,5.6,6.5,9.6 2004-05-01,8.742569246,9.780425165,5.6,6.6,9.6 2004-06-01,8.719190446,9.719137738,5.6,6.6,9.5 2004-07-01,8.710780867,9.712203356,5.5,6.5,9.5 2004-08-01,8.680957451,9.710300183,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-09-01,8.665496714,9.670619597,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-10-01,8.701787132,9.764414064,5.5,6.5,9.7 2004-11-01,8.654282171,9.645784617,5.4,6.3,9.4 2004-12-01,8.641168074,9.630003368,5.4,6.3,9.2 2005-01-01,8.591980976,9.565773968,5.3,6.4,9.3 2005-02-01,8.652157277,9.596902412,5.4,6.4,9.3 2005-03-01,8.57620924,9.556070745,5.2,6.2,9.1 2005-04-01,8.53701333,9.463847106,5.2,6.1,8.9 2005-05-01,8.457242259,9.421815112,5.1,6,8.9 2005-06-01,8.489801002,9.474606366,5,6,9 2005-07-01,8.402296425,9.37657064,5,5.9,8.8 2005-08-01,8.316278103,9.330302902,4.9,5.9,8.9 2005-09-01,8.464509034,9.499603117,5,5.9,9 2005-10-01,8.424020131,9.363451233,5,5.9,8.7 2005-11-01,8.486623773,9.394623049,5,5.9,8.7 2005-12-01,8.4421169,9.344054518,4.9,5.8,8.6 2006-01-01,8.329116293,9.228991532,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-02-01,8.323313954,9.242603228,4.8,5.7,8.4 2006-03-01,8.220534899,9.095760554,4.7,5.6,8.2 2006-04-01,8.356496637,9.183806022,4.7,5.5,8.1 2006-05-01,8.17717095,9.081706262,4.6,5.5,8.2 2006-06-01,8.170216455,9.111612034,4.6,5.6,8.4 2006-07-01,8.229628979,9.169035177,4.7,5.7,8.5 2006-08-01,8.196815554,9.134618783,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-09-01,8.183349065,9.100269381,4.5,5.3,8 2006-10-01,8.14767007,9.097327111,4.4,5.3,8.2 2006-11-01,8.196846531,9.090533207,4.5,5.4,8.1 2006-12-01,8.096894161,9.002888106,4.4,5.2,7.9 2007-01-01,8.172507326,9.090621598,4.6,5.6,8.4 2007-02-01,8.144285055,9.052889424,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-03-01,7.991738948,8.915538576,4.4,5.3,8 2007-04-01,8.272892389,9.176322921,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-05-01,8.22428312,9.194277358,4.4,5.3,8.2 2007-06-01,8.19114855,9.12252163,4.6,5.5,8.3 2007-07-01,8.210748411,9.161454554,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-08-01,8.238927719,9.250237944,4.6,5.5,8.4 2007-09-01,8.284111992,9.280015972,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-10-01,8.280541355,9.221075949,4.7,5.6,8.4 2007-11-01,8.198121453,9.149408999,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-12-01,8.369711893,9.351485139,5,5.8,8.8 2008-01-01,8.384129986,9.422627132,5,6,9.2 2008-02-01,8.374131504,9.417767319,4.9,5.9,9 2008-03-01,8.492513808,9.545895089,5.1,5.9,9.1 2008-04-01,8.522823203,9.607934021,5,5.8,9.2 2008-05-01,8.675563807,9.810965583,5.4,6.3,9.7 2008-06-01,8.730443421,9.916062324,5.6,6.5,10.1 2008-07-01,8.913726195,10.19864351,5.8,6.7,10.5 2008-08-01,9.059575364,10.33150795,6.1,7.1,10.8 2008-09-01,9.146890385,10.47247159,6.1,7.1,11 2008-10-01,9.285487573,10.71376638,6.5,7.5,11.8 2008-11-01,9.537426922,11.07635981,6.8,8,12.6 2008-12-01,9.810671713,11.51191411,7.3,8.4,13.6 2009-01-01,10.24312811,11.97306944,7.8,9.1,14.2 2009-02-01,10.46056,12.32201064,8.3,9.5,15.2 2009-03-01,10.65453612,12.59458708,8.7,9.9,15.8 2009-04-01,10.75278402,12.60821581,9,10.2,15.9 2009-05-01,10.95238383,12.88346485,9.4,10.6,16.5 2009-06-01,10.99551508,12.92622609,9.5,10.8,16.5 2009-07-01,10.83332448,12.76447256,9.5,10.8,16.4 2009-08-01,10.8457582,12.76414775,9.6,10.9,16.7 2009-09-01,10.91630597,12.77476116,9.8,11,16.7 2009-10-01,11.0291136,12.92724603,10,11.4,17.1 2009-11-01,10.8842958,12.78676529,9.9,11.2,17.1 2009-12-01,10.94897141,12.85484487,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-01-01,10.8591098,12.673362,9.8,11.3,16.7 2010-02-01,10.86871908,12.74666689,9.8,11.3,17 2010-03-01,10.84201818,12.78113873,9.9,11.2,17.1 2010-04-01,10.69123367,12.60982801,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-05-01,10.58016843,12.43903611,9.6,10.9,16.6 2010-06-01,10.50729239,12.33244837,9.4,10.9,16.4 2010-07-01,10.57039886,12.40780397,9.4,11,16.4 2010-08-01,10.64115349,12.48220023,9.5,10.9,16.5 2010-09-01,10.66968024,12.56295266,9.5,10.9,16.8 2010-10-01,10.61939741,12.4774406,9.4,11,16.6 2010-11-01,10.76843838,12.6043592,9.8,11.2,16.9 2010-12-01,10.57290355,12.43341868,9.3,10.9,16.6 2011-01-01,10.4901376,12.28531816,9.1,10.8,16.2 2011-02-01,10.43595915,12.20742386,9,10.6,16 2011-03-01,10.34986792,12.16151884,9,10.4,15.9 2011-04-01,10.46939037,12.28135191,9.1,10.5,16.1 2011-05-01,10.40910389,12.2084432,9,10.3,15.8 2011-06-01,10.51810144,12.29655761,9.1,10.7,16.1 2011-07-01,10.50223932,12.26533098,9,10.6,15.9 2011-08-01,10.44119384,12.24465841,9,10.5,16.1 2011-09-01,10.39768352,12.23694645,9,10.5,16.4 2011-10-01,10.34414047,12.15294308,8.8,10.3,15.8 2011-11-01,10.27611093,12.01774189,8.6,10.1,15.5 2011-12-01,10.18993102,11.88397726,8.5,10,15.2 2012-01-01,10.07946571,11.80657843,8.3,9.9,15.2 2012-02-01,10.05659796,11.76230153,8.3,9.8,15 2012-03-01,10.06070965,11.67505991,8.2,9.6,14.5 2012-04-01,10.06141627,11.6987582,8.2,9.6,14.6 2012-05-01,10.02509145,11.70563182,8.2,9.6,14.7 2012-06-01,10.06109203,11.73691973,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-07-01,10.07103943,11.74760841,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-08-01,10.1443212,11.7466715,8.1,9.6,14.6 2012-09-01,9.894381423,11.60634617,7.8,9.3,14.8 2012-10-01,9.855017929,11.56079919,7.8,9.2,14.4 2012-11-01,9.923398264,11.58447296,7.7,9.2,14.4 2012-12-01,9.977174263,11.6020947,7.9,9.4,14.4 2013-01-01,10.08900684,11.74735957,8,9.4,14.6 2013-02-01,9.906305558,11.57746468,7.7,9.2,14.4 2013-03-01,9.844529802,11.42041524,7.5,8.9,13.8 2013-04-01,9.851774442,11.48019357,7.6,8.9,14 2013-05-01,9.855123338,11.46472239,7.5,8.8,13.8 2013-06-01,9.829824189,11.48902163,7.5,9.1,14.2 2013-07-01,9.672689309,11.3163568,7.3,8.7,13.8 2013-08-01,9.597601312,11.14262315,7.2,8.6,13.6 2013-09-01,9.554817117,11.13318486,7.2,8.6,13.5 2013-10-01,9.619448316,11.28740654,7.2,8.5,13.6 2013-11-01,9.425282145,10.9887416,6.9,8.2,13.1 2013-12-01,9.357709496,10.94462247,6.7,8.1,13.1 2014-01-01,9.321446472,10.79903148,6.6,8.1,12.7 2014-02-01,9.339699672,10.8216185,6.7,8,12.7 2014-03-01,9.327216764,10.82687373,6.7,8,12.7 2014-04-01,9.154789936,10.67476285,6.3,7.5,12.3 2014-05-01,9.227029921,10.67380462,6.3,7.5,12.1 2014-06-01,9.12557835,10.63574985,6.1,7.3,12 2014-07-01,9.164873344,10.65014038,6.2,7.5,12.1 2014-08-01,9.222855679,10.6304303,6.2,7.4,11.9 2014-09-01,9.09172024,10.49968529,5.9,7.3,11.7 2014-10-01,8.94722546,10.42252422,5.7,7,11.5 2014-11-01,9.032191582,10.41616225,5.8,7,11.4 2014-12-01,8.905619144,10.27951744,5.6,6.9,11.2 2015-01-01,8.943358413,10.3064723,5.7,7,11.3 2015-02-01,8.891682869,10.23015323,5.5,6.8,11 2015-03-01,8.837628606,10.16037204,5.5,6.7,10.9 2015-04-01,8.831891482,10.15271972,5.4,6.7,10.9 2015-05-01,8.791900602,10.09109449,5.5,6.6,10.8 2015-06-01,8.764280797,10.04475465,5.3,6.4,10.4 2015-07-01,8.762078068,10.00056802,5.2,6.4,10.3 2015-08-01,8.621080597,9.871729839,5.1,6.2,10.2 2015-09-01,8.629018718,9.823328369,5,6.2,10 2015-10-01,8.618383183,9.83221278,5,6.2,9.8 2015-11-01,8.603701342,9.828625703,5,6.1,9.9 2015-12-01,8.539798603,9.745578431,5,6.1,9.9 2016-01-01,8.470633166,9.652359007,4.9,6.2,9.9 2016-02-01,8.468483235,9.656344458,4.9,6,9.7 2016-03-01,8.4680009,9.667695329,5,6.1,9.8 2016-04-01,8.517611141,9.705149811,5,6,9.8 2016-05-01,8.424334765,9.677235507,4.7,5.7,9.8 2016-06-01,8.413604579,9.546764923,4.9,6,9.5 2016-07-01,8.420453104,9.579155316,4.9,6,9.7 2016-08-01,8.443155352,9.604924622,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-09-01,8.502042494,9.661072977,5,6,9.7 2016-10-01,8.494361452,9.723245693,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-11-01,8.355815895,9.483914214,4.6,5.8,9.3 2016-12-01,8.364741782,9.467977054,4.7,5.7,9.1 2017-01-01,8.336759238,9.472817766,4.8,5.8,9.4 2017-02-01,8.256484311,9.364084411,4.7,5.7,9.2 2017-03-01,8.190600843,9.268376886,4.5,5.4,8.8 2017-04-01,8.141107892,9.178341157,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-05-01,8.136792799,9.135896525,4.3,5.2,8.4 2017-06-01,8.058106029,9.083492557,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-07-01,8.00576546,9.031642241,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-08-01,8.176099467,9.182051143,4.4,5.4,8.6 2017-09-01,7.922190953,8.929041239,4.2,5.1,8.3 2017-10-01,7.90152811,8.900451732,4.1,5,8 2017-11-01,7.929279684,8.878183135,4.1,5,8 2017-12-01,7.954479619,8.929188835,4.1,5.1,8.1 2018-01-01,7.911726501,8.895109365,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-02-01,7.860276235,8.867761813,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-03-01,7.870594076,8.845285184,4.1,4.9,8 2018-04-01,7.842696314,8.806578242,3.9,4.7,7.8 2018-05-01,7.786038874,8.711858585,3.8,4.6,7.6 2018-06-01,7.819330907,8.728940956,4,4.9,7.8 2018-07-01,7.706417422,8.587638432,3.9,4.8,7.5
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