John O'Trakoun introduces the "trimmed persistence PCE," a new measure of core inflation in which component prices are weighted according to the time-varying persistence of their price changes.

The upward trend in expected inflation has remained persistent, suggesting a greater risk to the anchoring of households' longer-term inflation expectations.

Data from the automotive industry seems to suggest car buyers could feel the effects of tariffs sooner rather than later.

Inflation expectations are on the rise at a steeper rate than in 2018, but it's still unclear if household sentiment will have an impact on consumer spending.

The size and role the nonprofit sector play in the economy may have contributed to the slowdown of services spending in January.

Recent survey data suggest the risk of higher inflation has increased, but there's limited evidence of a shift in longer-run inflation expectations.

What is the nature of the BLS data revisions, and do they change our understanding of the current state of the labor market?

A new indicator might be able to signal recessions faster and more accurately than the Sahm rule.

Looking back at the historical correlations between business optimism and measures of business investment could help us see if the recent rise in business optimism will have predictable results.

Will January bring further evidence of continued moderation, or could we be in for a surprise? Looking back at previous January inflation reports might indicate volatility is to be expected.

Understanding how housing components are measured in the NIPA offers insights into recent inflation dynamics.

Exploring the breadth of consumer spending through a diffusion index shows the U.S. consumer is likely to have entered 2025 in robust shape.

When analyzing health insurance costs, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index provide distinct insights into the impact of medical inflation.

Rural communities appear to face higher unemployment rates and grapple with economic challenges that are distinct from their urban neighbors.

A low inventory of houses on the market, caused by factors such as a need for more construction and homeowners discouraged from selling, continues to push home prices higher.

Looking into what types of workers are having difficulty finding a job sheds light on the recent rise in the unemployment rate.

Could July's slump in housing starts be attributed to severe weather, such as Hurricane Beryl that made landfall on July 8? Data suggests the national impact may be small.

In this week's post, we look at some of the survey evidence that consumers are starting to pull back on spending.

When considering the outlook for future housing services prices, examining the ratio against home prices and new tenant rents might indicate what's to come. What might the data be telling us?

With a newly developed index of payroll growth dispersion, the author shows how it differs from the BLS payroll diffusion index and discusses some implications from July's employment report.

With sentiment about the labor market appearing to soften, we explore some ways to visualize the breadth of recent jobs growth across industries.

This post looks into the components of private fixed investment and discusses what recent monthly data could be telling us for the outlook of this piece of GDP.

Would Fed rate cuts improve the outlook for homebuyers? This post examines the potential connection between policy rates and housing affordability.

The stock market is way up, and households know it. A consumption-supporting wealth effect, an overvalued stock market, and expecting strong future output growth are three possible causes.

An increase in multifamily housing supply could be contributing to a softening in rents, but historical patterns suggest an upward pressure on rent growth could be in store.

Are price increases being experienced across many categories, or is inflation mostly driven by a few stubborn categories? The PCE price index seems to suggest pricing pressure remains broad.

Anxiety about possible job loss appears to be associated with actual changes in worker behavior, lowering the frequency of job switching in the economy.

In this week's post, we rank districts according to how similar they are to the overall U.S. in terms of the industry composition of their GDP.

There's a diverging trend in the recovering housing market. While new single-family housing construction is increasing, multi-family housing unit construction is on the decline.

Findings from UM's Survey of Consumers suggest that being affiliated with the political party in power makes consumers more engaged and, in turn, more informed about the state of the economy.

Small business performance indicators suggest that consumer demand is resilient and price pressures remain high despite inflation trending down. Measures like these can offer insights into the overall economy's state.

Since 2021, there has been a large increase in both the size of the population with disabilities and the disabled labor force participation rate. Expansion of remote work opportunities seems to have contributed to this growth.

The increasing share of foreign-born immigrant workers is an important influence on today's labor market landscape. The outlook is highly uncertain if this trend will continue.

Due to an increase in labor productivity, strong wage growth is coexisting with encouraging signs of inflation in recent readings. However, productivity growth has historically shown to be volatile.

A significant gap has emerged between the growth rate of rent CPI and new renters. An increase in tenant lease renewal and young adults living at home could be related.

Data from the monthly Construction Spending Report point to a sustained and robust pace of real private construction spending toward the end of 2023.

Labor force participation among older workers is on the rise. Concerns about the sustainability of their finances may explain this happening.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.

This post provides a look at where retail inventory-to-sales ratios may hint at discounts for price-conscious consumers this holiday season.

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

How does the latest monthly data affect progress versus the Fed's long-run 2 percent average inflation target?

Real disposable personal income growth has been negative for the past three months following 11 consecutive months of gains.

In this week's post, we explore alternative series that might have been used to measure the strength of consumer demand in the absence of official measures of personal consumption expenditure (PCE).

In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.

Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.

While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.

Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?

In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.

April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?

Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.

Smaller businesses' demand for workers has made up a considerable part of the surge in job openings observed over the past two years. But some data suggest that surge is beginning to wane.

Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.

Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?

This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.

Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?

Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?

For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation

For the month of December, Macro Minute will be on hiatus. We'll resume our normal programming in January 2023.

This year, inflation will probably feature in some of conversations over Thanksgiving dinner. To prepare you for this onslaught, this post will take stock of how inflation has gobbled up part of the holiday budget.

How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?

As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

For homebuyers who are still in the market despite higher prices and borrowing rates, their options may be limited as homebuilders focus on clearing backlogs rather than starting new construction.

The relationship between the producer price index and consumer price indexes has not always been clear.

Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.

Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.

The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.

While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.

While some measures of inflation show modest signs of improvement, trimmed mean inflation tells another story.

Recent JOLTS data on job openings, hires and separations may shed some light on establishment size and the challenges of snagging new employees.

The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.

For decades, economists have been looking for leading indicators that can signal the future direction of the overall economy. In today's post, we look at a few of these indicators and what they suggest for growth going forward.

Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?

Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?

The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.

A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?

Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?

While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.

Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.

Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.

While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.

There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.

The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.

A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.

The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.

Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.

Americans have spent less and saved more during most of the COVID-19 pandemic. What will happen to these accumulated savings is an open question.

Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the post-COVID-19 labor market, there is still an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, expressed as the Beveridge curve. But it takes a lot more openings to get to the same level of unemployment. This shift suggests a high degree of labor market mismatch.

Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.

Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.

Since 1980, survey forecasts have been modestly and consistently higher on average than the forecasts derived from a signal extraction model.

Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.

How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.

There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.

The housing market has boomed during the pandemic, but data over the past few months have been more mixed. Is this bumpiness the result of weaker demand or lower supply?

Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.

The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.

Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?

The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.

Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?