Our Team
John O'Trakoun
John O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist in the Research Department. Before joining the Richmond Fed in September 2020, O'Trakoun was a senior economist at Ford Motor Company, where he analyzed and forecasted economic trends and their impact on the automotive industry.
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Academic Publications
Business Economics, Vol. 57, 2022: 95–110
John O'Trakoun
Business Economics, Vol. 53, January 2018: 14-24John O'Trakoun
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 26, 2017: 552-565John O'Trakoun
International Finance, Vol. 18, Winter 2015: 299-320John O'Trakoun
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Blog Posts
September 26, 2023
In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.
John O'Trakoun
September 5, 2023Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.
John O'Trakoun
August 15, 2023In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?
John O'Trakoun
August 8, 2023As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?
Erin Henry and John O'Trakoun
August 1, 2023How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.
John O'Trakoun
July 11, 2023While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.
John O'Trakoun
June 27, 2023Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?
John O'Trakoun
June 20, 2023In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.
John O'Trakoun
May 30, 2023April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?
John O'Trakoun
May 16, 2023While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.
John O'Trakoun
May 09, 2023Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?
John O'Trakoun
April 18, 2023Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.
John O'Trakoun
April 11, 2023Smaller businesses' demand for workers has made up a considerable part of the surge in job openings observed over the past two years. But some data suggest that surge is beginning to wane.
John O'Trakoun
April 04, 2023Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.
John O'Trakoun
March 28, 2023Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?
John O'Trakoun
March 7, 2023This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.
John O'Trakoun
February 28, 2023How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.
John O'Trakoun
February 14, 2023Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.
Julian Kikuchi and John O'Trakoun
February 07, 2023Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?
John O'Trakoun
January 17, 2023Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?
John O'Trakoun
January 10, 2023For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation
John O'Trakoun
December 6, 2022For the month of December, Macro Minute will be on hiatus. We'll resume our normal programming in January 2023.
John O'Trakoun
November 22, 2022This year, inflation will probably feature in some of conversations over Thanksgiving dinner. To prepare you for this onslaught, this post will take stock of how inflation has gobbled up part of the holiday budget.
John O'Trakoun
November 15, 2022How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?
John O'Trakoun and Brennan Merone
October 18, 2022As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.
John O'Trakoun
October 4, 2022Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?
John O'Trakoun
September 27, 2022For homebuyers who are still in the market despite higher prices and borrowing rates, their options may be limited as homebuilders focus on clearing backlogs rather than starting new construction.
John O'Trakoun
August 16, 2022Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.
John O'Trakoun
August 9, 2022The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.
Brennan Merone and John O'Trakoun
August 2, 2022While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.
John O'Trakoun
July 12, 2022While some measures of inflation show modest signs of improvement, trimmed mean inflation tells another story.
John O'Trakoun
July 5, 2022Recent JOLTS data on job openings, hires and separations may shed some light on establishment size and the challenges of snagging new employees.
John O'Trakoun
June 28, 2022The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.
Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun
May 31, 2022For decades, economists have been looking for leading indicators that can signal the future direction of the overall economy. In today's post, we look at a few of these indicators and what they suggest for growth going forward.
John O'Trakoun
May 24, 2022Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?
John O'Trakoun
May 17, 2022Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?
John O'Trakoun
May 10, 2022The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.
John O'Trakoun
April 12, 2022A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?
Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun
April 5, 2022Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?
John O'Trakoun
March 29, 2022While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.
John O'Trakoun
March 22, 2022Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.
John O'Trakoun
February 22, 2022Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.
John O'Trakoun
February 15, 2022While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.
John O'Trakoun
February 8, 2022There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.
Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun
February 1, 2022The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.
John O'Trakoun
January 11, 2022While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.
John O'Trakoun
January 4, 2022A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.
John O'Trakoun
December 28, 2021The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.
John O'Trakoun
December 21, 2021Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.
John O'Trakoun
November 30, 2021Americans have spent less and saved more during most of the COVID-19 pandemic. What will happen to these accumulated savings is an open question.
John O'Trakoun
November 16, 2021Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.
John O'Trakoun
November 9, 2021In the post-COVID-19 labor market, there is still an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, expressed as the Beveridge curve. But it takes a lot more openings to get to the same level of unemployment. This shift suggests a high degree of labor market mismatch.
John O'Trakoun
October 19, 2021Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.
John O'Trakoun
October 12, 2021Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.
John O'Trakoun
October 5, 2021Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.
John O'Trakoun
September 28, 2021How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.
John O'Trakoun
September 7, 2021There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.
John O'Trakoun
August 31, 2021The housing market has boomed during the pandemic, but data over the past few months have been more mixed. Is this bumpiness the result of weaker demand or lower supply?
John O'Trakoun
August 17, 2021Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.
John O'Trakoun
August 10, 2021The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.
John O'Trakoun
August 3, 2021Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?
John O'Trakoun
July 13, 2021The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.
John O'Trakoun
July 6, 2021Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?
John O'Trakoun