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John O'Trakoun

John O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist in the Research Department. Before joining the Richmond Fed in September 2020, O'Trakoun was a senior economist at Ford Motor Company, where he analyzed and forecasted economic trends and their impact on the automotive industry. Previously, he was a senior economist in international affairs and trade at the U.S. Government Accountability Office. He also served as a teaching fellow in economics at Boston College, where he earned his doctorate and masters degree.

  • Academic Publications
    Business Economics, Vol. 53, January 2018: 14-24

    John O'Trakoun

    The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 26, 2017: 552-565

    John O'Trakoun

    International Finance, Vol. 18, Winter 2015: 299-320

    John O'Trakoun

  • Blog Posts
    October 19, 2021

    Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.

    John O'Trakoun

    October 12, 2021

    Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.

    John O'Trakoun

    October 5, 2021

    Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.

    John O'Trakoun

    September 28, 2021

    How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.

    John O'Trakoun

    September 7, 2021

    There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.

    John O'Trakoun

    August 17, 2021

    Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.

    John O'Trakoun

    August 10, 2021

    The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.

    John O'Trakoun

    August 3, 2021

    Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?

    John O'Trakoun

    July 13, 2021

    The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.

    John O'Trakoun

    July 6, 2021

    Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?

    John O'Trakoun