John O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist in the Research Department. Before joining the Richmond Fed in September 2020, O'Trakoun was a senior economist at Ford Motor Company, where he analyzed and forecasted economic trends and their impact on the automotive industry.
John O'Trakoun
John O'Trakoun
John O'Trakoun
Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?
John O'Trakoun
The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.
John O'Trakoun
A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?
Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun
Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?
John O'Trakoun
While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.
John O'Trakoun
Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.
John O'Trakoun
Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.
John O'Trakoun
While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.
John O'Trakoun
There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.
Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun
The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.
John O'Trakoun
While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.
John O'Trakoun
A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.
John O'Trakoun
The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.
John O'Trakoun
Despite an impressive drop in the unemployment rate in November 2021, looking at the breakdown of the unemployed shows that the labor market is not back to normal.
John O'Trakoun
Americans have spent less and saved more during most of the COVID-19 pandemic. What will happen to these accumulated savings is an open question.
John O'Trakoun
Doing a deep dive into inventory-to-sales ratios can yield insights into supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.
John O'Trakoun
In the post-COVID-19 labor market, there is still an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, expressed as the Beveridge curve. But it takes a lot more openings to get to the same level of unemployment. This shift suggests a high degree of labor market mismatch.
John O'Trakoun
Average hourly earnings continue to grow strongly. With inflation running high, however, real wage growth has been more muted. Inflation has even outpaced wage growth in a few sectors.
John O'Trakoun
Household savings have been elevated since the start of the pandemic, especially among high-income households. This is expected to fuel the seasonal burst of demand ahead of the holidays.
John O'Trakoun
Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management and other sources offer early indications of whether and how much supply chain disruptions have eased.
John O'Trakoun
How consumers respond to the ongoing Delta variant outbreak has been a key question facing the economy. Fortunately, consumer spending is holding up better than sentiment surveys would have suggested.
John O'Trakoun
There could be multiple explanations for why more workers are staying on the sidelines compared to the pre-COVID-19 days. One reason could be that some people have reconsidered the costs and benefits of working.
John O'Trakoun
Household spending fell sharply, especially on services, during the early days of the pandemic. That story is expected to change significantly as the recovery continues.
John O'Trakoun
The two main employment surveys can present differing views of the health of the labor market in any given month, adding to the challenges of determining how far the economy has recovered from last year's severe downturn.
John O'Trakoun
Employers are reporting they are unable to find workers. But is every industry experiencing the same difficulties, and are the industries having more trouble raising wages in response?
John O'Trakoun
The recent acceleration in the prices people pay for housing might have more lasting implications for the path of core inflation ahead.
John O'Trakoun
Policymakers have been using the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate to get a better sense of the overall direction of prices in the long term. But does using this metric risk missing anything that short-term price hikes might be telling us?
John O'Trakoun