Speaking of the Economy

John O'Trakoun and Adam Scavette discuss their new approach to gauging the health of the economy and the likelihood that a recession is taking place before other indicators would detect it. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Scavette is a community development economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Pierre-Danie Sarte and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on the components of productivity growth, how that growth has varied over time and across industries, and how much it will benefit from the use of artificial intelligence. Sarte and Lubik are senior advisors in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Job Boerma shares a model for how poor mental health affects the economic decisions of consumers and the economy as a whole. Boerma, an assistant professor in economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, presented his research at a recent CORE Week at the Richmond Fed.

Chen Yeh provides an update on the longevity and broader impacts of the surge in start-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Vanity McDaniel and Jennifer Stadler provide a snapshot of how consumers pay for goods and services today and reflect on the latest technology trends in the U.S. payments system, including contactless payments, digital wallets, "buy now, pay later," instant payments, and the use of artificial intelligence. McDaniel is a senior payments business advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Stadler is executive vice president of marketing and membership at PaymentsFirst, a payments industry association.

Renee Haltom and Sonya Waddell share what recent surveys and conversations with Fifth District contacts reveal about the expectations of businesses for their own prospects and the economy as a whole, as well as firms' concerns about inflation, labor markets, and other potential challenges in 2025. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Emily Corcoran and Jen Giovannitti discuss the demand and supply factors that influence the financing of community development in rural areas, as well as the issues that impede the flow of capital into the places that need it. Corcoran is a senior manager of regional and community analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Giovannitti is president of the Claude Worthington Benedum Foundation.

Marina Azzimonti discusses the rise in the cost of borrowing for countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the broader implications of this trend for emerging markets, especially those that don't have strong governmental institutions. Azzimonti is a senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Amanda Neitzel and Santiago Pinto report on the progress of students after the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, differences in the persistence of learning losses, and efforts to remediate these losses. Neitzel is an assistant research professor at the Center for Research and Reform in Education at Johns Hopkins University, while Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Ricardo Reis discusses how swap lines have supported the flow of US currency into global financial markets to meet their liquidity needs and the dollar's prominence in those markets, especially during the 2007-08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Reis is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.