Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) Recession Indicator

The Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) indicator is a new U.S. recession indicator using the weekly insured unemployment rate with the methodology of the Sahm Recession Indicator (2019). The weekly SOS indicator has been demonstrated to provide accurate and timely signals of recession over the past fifty years, and may complement the signals of other leading recession indicators. The SOS indicator was developed by economists John O'Trakoun of the Richmond Fed and Adam Scavette of the Philadelphia Fed.

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Last updated on April 24, 2025

The SOS indicator remained at 0.004 the week ending April 12^th, unchanged from the previous week and below the recession threshold of 0.2 percentage points.

How Should I Interpret the SOS Recession Indicator?

Each Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the insured unemployment rate for the week before last (i.e. at a two-week lag). The SOS indicator is a coincident indicator of recession conditions based on these data, signaling recession when the indicator rises above a threshold of 0.2.

Further Details of the SOS Recession Indicator

The SOS indicator signals a recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises by more than 0.2 percentage points relative to its minimum over the 52 preceding weeks. The SOS recession indicator identifies the past seven U.S. recessions going back to the early 1970s.

Because the indicator is based on filings for unemployment insurance rather than household surveys, it avoids data challenges related to households' willingness and ability to accurately respond to surveys and correctly understand survey questions. In addition, because data on unemployment insurance claims are available weekly, the SOS can provide a timelier indicator of recession risk than other rules of thumb based on monthly data.