Region Focus

Fall 2007

Professional Prognosticators

Is forecasting a science or an art?
By Doug Campbell

Related Links

Bauer, Andy, Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Forecast Evaluation with Cross-Sectional Data: The Blue Chip Surveys." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter 2003, pp. 17-31.

Romer, Christina D., and David H. Romer. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates." American Economic Review, June 2000, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 429-457.

Sims, Christopher. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 2002, no. 2, pp. 1-62.

Tulip, Peter. "Has Output Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy." Federal Reserve Board of Governors Finance and Economics Discussion Series, August 2005, no. 31.

Contact Us


Aaron Steelman
Publications Director
(804) 697-2658

Order Publications

Order single copies of or subscribe to Econ Focus (formerly Region Focus) and other publications from the Federal Reserve System.