Economic Quarterly

Summer 1998

The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth

Michael Dotsey

The interest rate term spread contains useful information for predicting both economic activity and the probability of recessions. Further, the spread contains information not already included in past economic growth and past monetary policy. Nevertheless, the spread's forecasting performance, while still useful, has shown a noticeable deterioration in recent years.

Our Research Focus: Inflation and Monetary Policy

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