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Economic Quarterly

Third Quarter 2016

Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Andrew Owens

We specify a simple search and matching model of the aggregate labor market allowing for productivity-driven changes in match efficiency. This mechanism leads to shifts in the Beveridge curve that are broadly consistent with the pattern observed in the United States. We simulate data from the fully nonlinear solution of the model and estimate a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressions (TVP-VAR) on the unemployment and vacancies series to assess whether the shifts in the underlying theoretical model are being picked up by the nonlinear time series model. The results suggest that the TVP-VAR attributes almost all of the shifts to changes in the volatility of the reduced-form shocks.


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