Economists

Christian Matthes

Christian Matthes was a senior economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 2013 to 2020. Matthes is currently an associate professor of economics at Indiana University.

Personal Website

Bank Publications

Economic Brief, August 2021, No. 21-25

How Much Does Household Consumption Impact Business Cycles?

Household consumption shocks have accounted for close to 40 percent of pre-pandemic business cycle fluctuations.

Christian Matthes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Economic Brief, September 2020, No. 20-10

COVID-19 over Time and across States: Predictions from a Statistical Model

Paul Ho, Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Special Reports, May 8, 2020

Forecasting the COVID-19 Epidemic for the U.S.

Paul Ho, Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Economic Brief, August 2019, No. 19-08

Monetary Policy across Space and Time

Laura Liu, Christian Matthes, Katerina Petrova and Jessie Romero

Economic Brief, April 2019, No. 19-04

Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles

Renee Haltom, Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Fabio Verona

Economic Quarterly, First Quarter 2019

How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Economic Brief, September 2018, No. 18-09

How Likely Is a Return to the Zero Lower Bound?

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and David A. Price

Economic Brief, March 2017, No. 17-03

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Economic Brief, November 2016, No. 16-11

The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

Economic Quarterly, Third Quarter 2016

Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Andrew Owens

Economic Brief, October 2015, No. 15-10

Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Economic Quarterly, Fourth Quarter 2015

Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions: Specification, Estimation, and an Application

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Economic Brief, January 2014, No. 14-01

Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik
Working Papers

August 2021, No. 21-14

Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy

Hee Soo Kim, Christian Matthes and Toan Phan

August 2020, No. 20-10

How To Go Viral: A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters

Paul Ho, Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

September 2019, No. 19-17

Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Elmar Mertens

April 2019, No. 19-10

Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk

Francesca Loria, Christian Matthes and Donghai Zhang

March 2019, No. 19-09R

The Consumption Origins of Business Cycles: Lessons from Sectoral Dynamics (Revised June 2021)

Christian Matthes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

February 2019, No. 19-06

Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies

Christian Matthes, Thomas A. Lubik and Fabio Verona

August 2018, No. 18-14

Monetary Policy across Space and Time

Laura Liu, Christian Matthes and Katerina Petrova

July 2018, No. 18-12

A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models

Fabio Canova and Christian Matthes

December 2017, No. 17-15

Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign

Regis Barnichon and Christian Matthes

November 2016, No. 16-15

Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Alexander Ziegenbein

August 2016, No. 16-09

Choosing Prior Hyperparameters

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, Christian Matthes and Mu-Chun Wang

July 2016, No. 16-08

Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and the Nonlinear Effects of Monetary Shocks

Regis Barnichon and Christian Matthes

November 2015, No. 15-13

Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, Christian Matthes and Mu-Chun Wang

September 2015, No. 15-11

Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks

Christian Matthes and Josef Hollmayr

September 2015, No. 15-10

Approximating Time Varying Structural Models With Time Invariant Structures

Fabio Canova, Filippo Ferroni and Christian Matthes

April 2014, No. 14-10

Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi, Christian Matthes and Mu-Chun Wang

March 2014, No. 14-07

Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning

Timothy Cogley, Christian Matthes and Argia M. Sbordone

February 2014, No. 14-02

Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

October 2013, No. 13-15

Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty

Christian Matthes and Josef Hollmayr
Regional Matters

April 23, 2020

Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth District

How many COVID-19 cases will there be in the coming days and months? While the Fifth District appears to be past the peak number of daily cases, a wide range of future outcomes is still possible.

Paul Ho, Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes