The authors show how max-share identification could be problematic and that stringent conditions are required to accurately identify the shock of interest.

In this paper, we develop a methodology that delivers an encompassing approach to computing dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables to shocks.

We study how international linkages and nominal price rigidities jointly shape the dynamics of inflation and output across multiple large economies.

Episodes of booming innovation coincide with intense speculation in financial markets leading to bubbles — increases in market valuations and firm creation followed by a crash.

An updated model suggests that inflation may stay at elevated levels in the near term.

Trying to identify single causes of individual business cycles is fraught with misattribution problems.

Global interconnectedness has been present for decades, as seen by how countries' GDP growth and inflation tend to move together.

A careful comparison of the approaches allows policymakers to discern possible strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Demographic factors can simultaneously work in opposite directions when it comes to r*.

The evolving behavior of sectoral inflation complicates focusing on aggregate trends.

Even though economists have made huge leaps in understanding how monetary policy impacts the economy, there remains substantial disagreement and imprecision in the estimates.

Seemingly small international trade linkages can lead to substantial spillovers across countries, helping explain global comovement in GDP growth and inflation across countries.

During bubbles, an innovation raises a company's stock price by more than it would otherwise, and competing company stock prices don't suffer as much.

Without a recent directly comparable episode, economic forecasters modified their models or sought additional information in data to create forecasts during the pandemic.

Household pessimism and optimism drive substantial changes in economic outcomes, particularly in the labor market.

In this brief, we focus on North Carolina and Washington, D.C., since they have experienced different trajectories of COVID-19 and may have different implications for the efficacy of our approach.

How many COVID-19 cases will there be in the coming days and months? While the Fifth District appears to be past the peak number of daily cases, a wide range of future outcomes is still possible.