Solid demand continued, but consumers still seemed stretched this past cycle. With 2027 on the horizon, there was high uncertainty among businesses about growth, geopolitics, and interest rates.

Both demand and the labor market remained solid this past cycle, while businesses noted that cost pressures felt more widespread, squeezing businesses with limited pricing power.

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

Businesses reported durable demand from consumers and are keeping headcounts flat through the end of 2026. Pricing pressures continued, but with some pullback from low- and middle-income customers.

In the lead up to the June FOMC meeting, businesses reported increased cost pressures, surprisingly resilient demand, and limited pricing power.

Businesses reported limited impact from the Middle East conflict in the lead up to the April FOMC meeting, with consumers continuing to spend and more cost pressure and supply chain disruption still to come.

Businesses sounded more upbeat in the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting but still hesitated to hire and raise prices. New global uncertainty could temper this optimism going forward.

From the end of 2025 through mid-January, businesses said they are increasingly confident but are still hesitant to make moves; the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium seems likely to continue.

Since the last FOMC cycle, businesses said growth has been solid, but narrow; the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium continues.

Conversations with businesses since the last FOMC cycle did not suggest any big shifts in the economy; economic conditions remained stable.

This post shares sensing insights from business contacts in recent weeks. Overall, businesses said activity increased somewhat while expectations remained mixed, labor availability improved, and more cost passthrough was expected.

We are learning from businesses that there are several factors that can delay both the incurring of tariffs and the impact of incurred tariffs on pricing decisions.

Rural areas were hit hard with labor shortages during COVID-19, more so than their urban counterparts. However, the tides have turned with rural wage growth now exceeding that of urban areas.

The Danville region in Virginia has moved the needle on early childhood education and now has an ecosystem in place to help address future challenges.

Jargon Alert

This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component (cycles up to thirty-two years), and a long-term component (the trend).

MIT economist on angel investing, the economics of private equity and venture capital funds, and big data in consumer lending

Richmond Fed economists have created a framework to measure the costs of a large firm's failure

The recent flattening of the yield curve has raised concerns that a recession is around the corner. Such concerns stem partly from the fact that yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions.

Huberto Ennis of the Richmond Fed examines how frequently banks borrow from the discount window

University of Pennsylvania economist on the state of macroeconomics, the zero lower bound, and the future of the eurozone

The choice between bankruptcy or bailout trades off different sets of costs on the economy. This Economic Brief presents a new tool that could assist policymakers with this evaluation, potentially helping to curb the "too big to fail" problem, serving as a useful complement to the "living wills" process, and making the resolution process more transparent.

This Economic Brief reviews the intuition and theory behind bank runs and the most popular proposed solutions.

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Brown University economist on media bias, online political polarization, and the evolution of politicians' rhetoric

Central banks play strong roles in domestic financial stability policy, but the full scopes of their financial stability mandates are ambiguous.

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How Congress holds monetary policymakers accountable

Indiana University economist on following monetary policy rules, FDR and the gold standard, and market limits on public debt

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Columbia University economist on the stickiness of prices, natural experiments in macroeconomics, and measuring Chinese inflation

New survey results suggest that the regulation has had limited and unequal effects on merchants. This Economic Brief discusses the causes of these findings as well as the implications of the regulation for end users.

Jargon Alert

Jargon Alert

The most recent study published by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies estimates that Islam was the fastest-growing religion in the United States between 2000 and 2010. Yet there are relatively few financial products available here for those followers who require their financial contracts to comply with Islamic laws and moral codes, called Sharia law.

Stanford University economist on the effects of economic uncertainty, the role of management practices in economic performance, and fostering good management

Jargon Alert

Retired economist and monetary history expert on the gold standard, monetary policy rules, and how a central bank should respond in a crisis

On November 25, 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would begin purchasing debt issued and MBS guaranteed by GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to provide monetary stimulus to the housing sector and broader economy.

Concerns about fiscal imbalances in Europe and the United States have led to intense debates about whether governments should dramatically cut spending or increase taxes to reduce government debt — a course of action often called fiscal "austerity."

This Economic Brief argues that the current fiscal position is not sustainable. Though financial markets seem unconcerned, for the time being, about U.S. fiscal health, as evidenced by low rates on Treasury securities, lawmakers should not be complacent.

Several recent research efforts have found that stimulative fiscal policy — government spending or tax cuts — can have unusual effects when nominal interest rates are as low as they are today. In particular, some studies have found that the government spending "multiplier" can be much larger at the zero lower bound.

Rising interchange fees, along with the growing dominance of card transactions in the payments system, have brought increasing scrutiny from regulators on the appropriate level of interchange fees and the competitive aspects of card networks.

Existing policies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) largely have been structured to subsidize alternative energy technologies. Yet these policies are likely not to be as useful as ones that target CO2 emissions directly, such as an emissions tax or a "cap and trade" program.

It is widely believed that public sector spending and investment can restore aggregate economic activity to efficient levels. But some policy responses are likely to be more successful than others.