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Working Papers

October 1984, No. 84-6

Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions From a VAR Model

William M. Lupoletti and Roy H. Webb

Thirty years ago it appeared that the best strategy for improving economic forecasts was to build bigger, more detailed models.  As the costs of computing plummeted, considerable detail was added to models and more elaborate statistical techniques became feasible. 

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