Economists

Roy H. Webb

Roy Webb is a senior economist and policy advisor in the Research Department and has been with the Richmond Fed since 1978. In addition to his research and monetary policy work, Webb has served on the Governor's Advisory Board of Economists and the Joint Advisory Board of Economists in Virginia.

Webb's main research interest is tracking the economy and developing a coherent explanation of significant trends and events. A related interest that has generated several papers is the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) models for macroeconomic forecasting.

Academic Publications

Using the Federal Funds Futures Market to Predict Monetary Policy Actions

Business Economics, Vol. 36, April 2001: 44-48

Raymond E. Owens III and Roy H. Webb

The Statistics Corner: National Productivity Statistics

Business Economics, Vol. 34, April 1999: 29-32

Roy H. Webb

Forecasts of Inflation from VAR Models

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, May 1995: 267-285

Roy H. Webb

Previous Version: Working Paper, July 1994, No. 94-8

Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model

The Journal of Business, Vol. 59, February 1986: 263-285

William M. Lupoletti and Roy H. Webb

Previous Version: Working Paper, October 1984, No. 84-6

Stocks and Depreciation of Human Capital: New Evidence from a Present Value Perspective

The Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 25, June 1979: 209-224

Roy H. Webb
Books and Book Chapters

"On Predicting the Stage of the Business Cycle" in Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records, edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey Moore, 109-127, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 1991.
Bank Publications

Economic Brief, December 2019, No. 19-12

Predicting Recessions

Matthew Murphy, Jessie Romero and Roy H. Webb

Economic Brief, July 2010, No. 10-07

How Useful Are Consumer Surveys as Macroeconomic Indicators?

Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Spring 2004

Which Price Index Should a Central Bank Employ?

Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Winter 2003

The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Employee Compensation

Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Spring 2001

Using the Federal Funds Futures Market to Predict Monetary Policy Actions

Raymond E. Owens III and Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Summer 1999

Two Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Winter 1998

National Productivity Statistics

Roy H. Webb

Economic Quarterly, Spring 1995

An Index of Leading Indicators for Inflation

Roy H. Webb and Tazewell S. Rowe

Economic Quarterly, Spring 1993

Personal Saving Behavior and Real Economic Activity

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, May/Jun, 1991

The Stealth Budget: Unfunded Liabilities of the Federal Government

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 1989

Labor Market Data

Roy H. Webb and William Whelpley

Economic Review, Jul/Aug, 1989

Macroeconomic Price Indexes

Roy H. Webb and Rob Willemse

Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 1988

Commodity Prices as Predictors of Aggregate Price Change

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 1987

The Irrelevance of Tests for Bias in Series of Macroeconomic Forecasts

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, May/Jun, 1986

The National Income and Product Accounts

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jul/Aug, 1985

Toward More Accurate Macroeconomic Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jan/Feb, 1985

Forecasts 1985

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jan/Feb, 1984

Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluations

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jan/Feb, 1984

Forecasts 1984

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jul/Aug, 1983

Why Economic Data Should Be Handled with Care: The Case of the Suspiciously Slow Growth Statistic

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jan/Feb, 1983

Forecasts 1983

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jul/Aug, 1982

Interest Rates and Federal Deficits

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Jan/Feb, 1982

Forecasts 1982

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 1980

Taxing Capital Gains

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, May/Jun, 1980

Depression or Price Controls: A Fictitious Dilemma for Anti-Inflation Policy

Roy H. Webb

Economic Review, May/Jun, 1979

Wage-Price Restraint and Macroeconomic Disequilibrium

Roy H. Webb
Working Papers

July 1994, No. 94-8

Forecasts of Inflation from VAR Models

Roy H. Webb

June 1987, No. 87-1

On Predicting the Stage of the Business Cycle

Roy H. Webb

October 1984, No. 84-7

Inadequate Tests of the Rationality of Expectations

Roy H. Webb

October 1984, No. 84-6

Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions From a VAR Model

William M. Lupoletti and Roy H. Webb

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