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Working Papers

November 2025, No. 25-13

When a primary worker' income drops unexpectedly, spousal labor supply and earnings increase to compensate, especially in young households with limited financial assets.

Yongsung Chang, Elin Halvorsen and Marios Karabarbounis

November 2025, No. 25-12

An econometric framework that can jointly leverage identification strategies from the applied microeconometric toolkit and identification assumptions from the macro/time series literature exploits both time series and crosssectional variation to identify aggregate macroeconomic effects as well as idiosyncratic effects of identified shocks.

November 2025, No. 25-11

During the last nonfinancial recession, negative credit supply shocks reduced firms' employment and increased their exit probability.

Alex Rivadeneira, Carlo Alcaraz, Nicolas Amoroso, Rodolfo Oviedo, Brenda Samaniego de la Parra and Horacio Sapriza

October 2025, No. 25-10

Supervisors anticipate most bank failures with a high degree of accuracy.

October 2025, No. 25-09

The authors develop a single-proposer noise bargaining game and embed it in a two-sector sovereign default model to find that hard defaults coincide with deeper and more protracted recessions.

Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana

October 2025, No. 25-08

Exploring the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II provides methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts.

September 2025, No. 25-07

This post uses a major central bank announcement, the "whatever it takes" speech, to determine how a credible announcement of an unconventional monetary policy intervention affects bank lending standards during crises.

Carlo Alcaraz, Stijn Claessens, Gabriel Cuadra, David Marques-Ibanez and Horacio Sapriza

September 2025, No. 25-06

What trade-offs do policymakers face between raising tax revenues for the public good and mitigating the distortionary effects of taxation when individuals can evade taxes and engage in clandestine activities?

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sugata Marjit, Santiago Pinto and Marcel Thum

June 2025, No. 25-05

Since brokers operate a two-sided platform for trading homes, this model explains the 6 real estate broker commission and implies that commission rates should be higher where price-rent ratios are higher.

June 2025, No. 25-04

Why do banks fail? The authors create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States.

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