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On Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration (Revised March 2023)

By Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerrón-Quintana
Working Papers
August 2021, No. 21-13R

How do local government borrowing, default, and migration interact? We find in-migration results in excessive debt accumulation due to a key externality: Immigrants help repay previously issued debt. In addition to providing direct IV evidence on this mechanism, we show cities are heavily indebted, near state-imposed borrowing limits, vulnerable to interest rate increases, and default even after periods of robust population and productivity growth. Our quantitative model reproduces these features of the data and reveals a bifurcation: in-migration strongly affects borrowing, but borrowing only weakly affects migration. The model predicts large interest rate declines in the Great Recession prevented a wave of municipal defaults.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21144/wp21-13