Business Cycles

Working Paper

Sovereign Default Intensity and Noise Bargaining

Working Paper Series

October 2025, No. 25-09

The authors develop a single-proposer noise bargaining game and embed it in a two-sector sovereign default model to find that hard defaults coincide with deeper and more protracted recessions.

Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana

Speech

Staying Sanguine About the Horizon

Sept. 26, 2025

President Tom Barkin discusses risks to both sides of the dual mandate and shares his outlook for the U.S. economy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Regional executives meeting with business leaders around a conference table.

What Businesses Are Saying: Activity Up, but Expectations Mixed

Regional Matters

September 19, 2025

This post shares sensing insights from business contacts in recent weeks. Overall, businesses said activity increased somewhat while expectations remained mixed, labor availability improved, and more cost passthrough was expected.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Article

Job applicants waiting in a line of chairs as they review their notes.

How to Gauge Maximum Employment

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-32

The Fed's "maximum employment" mandate isn't directly measurable, so how can we tell if the economy is close?

Marios Karabarbounis

Speech

Woman holds a toddler while examining groceries at a grocery store

Why the Consumer Matters

Aug. 12, 2025

The fog is lifting. President Tom Barkin explores why the road ahead for the U.S. economy may be bumpy but bearable.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data

June 26, 2025

President Tom Barkin discusses what he’s seeing in the data, hearing from businesses and expecting in the months to come.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

A man holds a virtual world map with person icons representing people's data spread throughout the globe.

Economic Effects Everywhere All at Once

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-25

Global interconnectedness has been present for decades, as seen by how countries' GDP growth and inflation tend to move together.

Katherine Anderson, Paul Ho and Nathan Robino

Working Paper

Max-Share Misidentification

Working Paper Series

June 2025, No. 25-02

The authors show how max-share identification could be problematic and that stringent conditions are required to accurately identify the shock of interest.

Liyu Dou, Paul Ho and Thomas A. Lubik

Podcast

small crystal ball with a chart flowing inside of it

A New Way of Detecting Recessions

Speaking of the Economy

April 16, 2025

John O'Trakoun and Adam Scavette discuss their new approach to gauging the health of the economy and the likelihood that a recession is taking place before other indicators would detect it. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Scavette is a community development economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Speech

Driving through Economic Fog

March 27, 2025

President Tom Barkin considers the economic outlook amid elevated uncertainty.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

A business owner putting up a help wanted sign on their storefront window.

Hiring Puzzle: Why Do Firms Decrease Hiring So Much in Recessions?

Economic Brief

March 2025, No. 25-10

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.

Katarína Borovičková

Article

Silhouette of a businessman turned away looking at enlarged, downward trend lines.

Sentiment About Business Debt as a Leading Economic Indicator

Economic Brief

March 2025, No. 25-09

Several economic indicators appear to respond notably to shocks in credit sentiment.

Danilo Leiva-León, Thomas A. Lubik, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Nathan Robino, Horacio Sapriza, Francisco Vazquez-Grande and Egon Zakrajšek

Speech

Inflation Then and Now

Feb. 25, 2025

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Graphic with various downward trending charts with the word "recession" at the top.

SOS! Signaling Recessions Earlier

Economic Brief

February 2025, No. 25-07

A new indicator might be able to signal recessions faster and more accurately than the Sahm rule.

John O'Trakoun and Adam Scavette

Blog Post

The Power of Positive Thinking? Business Optimism and Investment

Macro Minute

February 11, 2025

Looking back at the historical correlations between business optimism and measures of business investment could help us see if the recent rise in business optimism will have predictable results.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Globe in the foreground and a ship in the background

Supply Chain Resilience and the Effects of Economic Shocks

Economic Brief

January 2025, No. 25-02

Economic shocks can be amplified through supply chains. In response, many firms and policies are aiming to increase supply chain resilience.

Nicolas Morales

Speech

2025 Economic Outlook

Jan. 3, 2025

President Tom Barkin reflects on the past year and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Graphic with binary code around a stack of hundred-dollar bills.

The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks

Working Paper Series

November 2024, No. 24-13

This paper explores the role of technological shocks and if their impact triggers a response that resembles business cycles.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

A smiling grocery store clerk with an apron on standing in front of merchandise.

The Persistent Decline of LFP Rates for Older Individuals Around the Pandemic

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-34

Some inferred early retirement or unexpected wealth gains played a role, but the data suggest that these drops were either not very persistent or reflected as part of long-run trends.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Speech

How Did the Economy Get Here?

Nov. 12, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores where the U.S. economy is today, how it got here and where it may be headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Why Not Declare Victory?

Oct. 2, 2024

President Tom Barkin shares his views on the economy and the recent rate cut, and then looks to what could come next.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

A Model-Based Perspective on Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes

Economic Brief

September 2024, No. 24-30

According to a multisector DSGE model, heterogeneity in shock variances across sectors is critical for matching the empirical relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative price changes.

Alexander L. Wolman and Francisco Ruge-Murcia

Working Paper

Economic chart showing stock market shifts with a silhouette of business professionals shaking hands behind the chart.

Corporate Bond Market Distress

Working Paper Series

September 2024, No. 24-09

The authors show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy.

Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Anna Kovner and Or Shachar

Working Paper

Three stacks of coins with a letter block on top that spell out "g" "d" "p."

Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth

Working Paper Series

September 2024, No. 24-08

The authors find evidence that bank capital matters for the tails of future GDP growth, with a relationship that is particularly strong in reducing the probability of the worst GDP outcomes. The relationship between bank capital and growth, however, is not strong for its central tendency.

Nina Boyarchenko, Domenico Giannone and Anna Kovner

Blog Post

Aerial shot of Morgantown, West Virginia, on an overcast day in Fall.

Are College Towns Recession Proof?

Regional Matters

September 19, 2024

Although the communities surrounding universities experienced some shielding effects from previous recessions, the unemployment rate actually increased in these areas following the COVID-19 recession.

Adam Scavette and Robert Calvert Jump

Working Paper

Close up of a loan application for a bank loan.

Bank Lending Standards and the U.S. Economy

Working Paper Series

August 2024, No. 24-07

The authors study how changes in banks' lending standards affect economic activity, inflation, and interest rates to gain a better understanding of the macroeconomic effect that banks can have.

Elijah Broadbent, Huberto M. Ennis, Tyler J. Pike and Horacio Sapriza

Podcast

Outlines of people behind line graphs and bar charts of economic data.

How is the Economy, Really?

Speaking of the Economy

July 10, 2024

Andy Bauer and Renee Haltom talk about why consumers and businesses are telling a different story about the economy than the data suggests. They also discuss how economists reconcile such differences between sentiment and data. Bauer and Haltom are regional executives at the Richmond Fed.

Speech

A woman buying her son new clothes in a store. She’s at the checkout, paying contactless with her smartphone.

Why Were Forecasts Off?

June 28, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores why it has been particularly challenging to predict the path of the economy over the last few years.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Navigating Data Whiplash

May 6, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on recent data and shares his view on where the U.S. economy is headed.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Aerial shot of the Port of Baltimore filled with shipping containers at sunset.

The Port of Baltimore Will Bounce Back

Macro Minute

April 9, 2024

Temporary losses look to be severe after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and closure of the Port of Baltimore, but there are several reasons to be optimistic about recovery.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Speech

How You Might Look at Recent Data

April 4, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores different ways to look at recent data, and then gives his own perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Two professional women shaking hands while seated at table with laptops in front of them.

How Female Labor Supply Shapes Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

Economic Brief

February 2024, No. 24-04

Several factors include labor market participation, business cycle volatility and responsiveness to the underlying economic environment.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Blue parachute attached to the word "economy", slowly lowering to ground below.

Of Soft, Hard and Aborted Landings

Economic Brief

January 2024, No. 24-02

How has the economy navigated previous rate cycles, and how do they compare to the current one?

Erin Henry, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Jack Taylor

Speech

Heading for a Soft Landing?

Jan. 3, 2024

President Tom Barkin reflects on 2023 and shares his outlook for the year ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Webinar

Economics in the Hot Seat

Nov. 30, 2023

Upcoming Event: What do Uber and the Federal Reserve have in common? They both hire economists! Did you know that some of your favorite brands also hire economists? But what do economists actually do? Registration required.

Speech

A crane and construction equipment being used to build a new apartment complex

The Housing Challenge

Nov. 15, 2023

President Tom Barkin shares how communities in the Fifth District are working to move the needle on housing.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

A paved road in the forest forks into two directions

What’s Next for the Economy?

Nov. 9, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores potential paths for the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Is the Goods-to-Services Rotation Over?

Macro Minute

November 7, 2023

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Speech

Warehouse supervisor walking and talking with senior manager

The New Job Hierarchy

Sept. 28, 2023

President Tom Barkin explores what’s happening in the labor market and how it could impact the path ahead.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Elevated Margins in the PPI

Macro Minute

September 5, 2023

Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

A Rate Cycle Unlike Any Other

Economic Brief

August 2023, No. 23-26

The current cycle appears to be unique in how inflation has moved during this most recent series of rate hikes.

Conner Mulloy, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Erin Henry

Speech

A hand erasing question marks on a blackboard

Recession Revisited

Aug. 3, 2023

President Tom Barkin discusses what’s driving the resilient U.S. economy and where it may be headed next.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Blog Post

Market graph of different trend lines overlapping.

Fifth District State Business Cycles

Regional Matters

August 03, 2023

How do state economies behave differently through the ups and downs of national business cycles? Do some states tend to enter recessions sooner (or later) than others? Are some states more recession-proof (or prone) than others?

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Podcast

Men supervising movement of containers at port

Supply Chain Resilience

Speaking of the Economy

July 26, 2023

Nicolas Morales discusses his research on supply chains and the factors that can help them resist and recover from economic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Morales is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

News

A street corner showing shops in downtown Wytheville, Va.

Bank Team Discovers Economic Potential in Southwest Virginia Town

June 20, 2023

The Richmond Fed Community Conversations team visited Wythe County to explore the region's promises and possibilities.

Blog Post

Rough Road Ahead for Auto Sales

Macro Minute

May 16, 2023

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

How Much Do Labor Costs Affect Prices in Recessions and in Expansions?

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-14

Wage-price pass throughs may help explain why core goods inflation has risen so much faster in the current expansion than in previous ones.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

Looking at a computer screen about applying for Unemployment Benefits

Unemployment Changes as Recession Indicators

Economic Brief

April 2023, No. 23-13

Changes in unemployment appear to be strong recession predictors, especially when combined with lagged term spreads.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Article

Trade-offs in Fulfilling the Fed’s Dual Mandate

Economic Brief

March 2023, No. 23-08

Moves toward stable inflation and maximum employment can be in conflict in the short term.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Secular Trends in Macroeconomics and Firm Dynamics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-02

Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.

Tim Sablik and Matthew Wells

Podcast

Manufacturing and service sector surveys

What Surveys Say About the Regional and National Economy

Speaking of the Economy

Dec. 7, 2022

Jason Kosakow and Santiago Pinto describe how survey data is gathered and used to assess regional and national economic conditions. Kosakow is survey director and Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

What Makes Supply Chains More Resilient to Economic Shocks?

Economic Brief

November 2022, No. 22-46

The lockdowns resulting from COVID-19 provide an opportunity to examine what factors affect the strength of supply chains.

Claire Conzelmann, Nicolas Morales, Gaurav Khanna and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Article

real exchange rates in hard and soft sovereign defaults

How Do Real Exchange Rates Vary in Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults?

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-40

Hard (or large) sovereign defaults have been associated with larger negative economic responses than soft defaults.

Brandon Fuller, Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana

Article

Introducing the Credit Market Sentiment Index

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-33

A new real-time measure of credit market sentiment appears to outperform credit conditions indicators currently used in the literature.

Danilo Leiva-León, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Horacio Sapriza, Francisco Vazquez-Grande and Egon Zakrajšek

Article

Recession Predictors: An Evaluation

Economic Brief

August 2022, No. 22-30

The yield curve is often used to gauge potential recessions. Can its predictive value be improved?

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Blog Post

Searching for Soft Spots in Unemployment Rates

Macro Minute

August 2, 2022

While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

man scratching head as an arrow points downward against the backdrop of a dollar bill

Prospects for a Recession: A Perspective From the CFO Survey

Speaking of the Economy

June 29, 2022

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell shares insights from the latest survey of chief financial officers and other financial decision-makers at companies across the United States. Waddell is a vice president and economist at the Richmond Fed.

Speech

Group of businesspeople raising their hands to ask questions during a conference

The Recession Question

June 21, 2022

As the Fed works to contain inflation, many ask whether we are headed into a recession. President Barkin shares his perspective.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Searching for Hysteresis

Working Paper Series

May 2022, No. 22-05

We search for hysteresis in aggregate post-WWII U.S. data. Our ﬁndings suggest that hysteresis effects have been virtually absent for the sample excluding the ﬁnancial crisis and the Great Recession, and they only appear when including the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

The Pandemic, Child Care and Women’s Labor Force Participation

Economic Brief

May 2022, No. 22-16

Unlike in other recessions, women's labor force participation was impacted more than men's. What impact did child care have?

Kartik B. Athreya and Sierra Stoney

Article

Government Programs and Their Effects on Welfare and Employment: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-13

How did unemployment insurance expansion affect recovery from the pandemic-induced recession? What are the effects of federal minimum wage hikes? A recent research conference addressed these questions and more.

John Mullin

Article

The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends

Economic Brief

April 2022, No. 22-12

The unemployment rate is close to pre-pandemic lows, and job openings are at record highs. Yet, participation and employment rates are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Article

Relative Price Changes Are Unlikely to Account for Recent High Inflation

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-10

The recent high inflation had been due to price changes in a small group of expenditures, but that changed a few months ago.

Alexander L. Wolman

Article

illustrative image of infrastructure construction

Does Infrastructure Spending Boost the Economy?

Economic Brief

February 2022, No. 22-04

Studies suggest that short-term effects of such spending are small and long-term effects depend on an economy's sensitivity to such investment.

Marios Karabarbounis

Article

illustrative image about news and inventories

How Expectations About Future Productivity Drive Inventories

Economic Brief

January 2022, No. 22-03

News about productivity shocks — even when these shocks have not even happened yet — seems to be a powerful additional source of economic fluctuations.

Thomas A. Lubik, Christoph Görtz and Christopher Gunn

Article

image of presenter giving an economics lecture

Market Freezes, Shadow Bank Runs and More: A Recap of the Monetary Economics Conference

Economic Brief

January 2022, No. 22-02

Is money essential? How do self-interested parties bargain to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes? These were among questions addressed at a recent research conference.

Tim Sablik

Article

Illustration of lightbulb with different graphics drawn inside to indicate ideas

A Pandemic-Era Startup Boom

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

A surge of interest in starting new businesses could reverse a long-running drought.

Tim Sablik

Article

Revisiting the Beveridge Curve: Why Has It Shifted so Dramatically?

Economic Brief

October 2021, No. 21-36

The Beveridge curve — which measures the inverse relationship between the unemployment and vacancy rates — has shifted significantly outward and is much steeper than in pre-COVID times.

Thomas A. Lubik

Podcast

Business Cycle Shocks: From Households to Big Firms

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 13, 2021

Felipe Schwartzman and Chen Yeh discuss their research on business cycles and what forces impact them on the individual and aggregate level. Schwartzman is a senior economist and Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Marble doorway that reads "Federal Reserve"

The Fed’s Evolving Involvement in the Repo Markets

Economic Brief

September 2021, No. 21-31

The Fed's relatively new repo facilities may create greater price certainty, but the Fed's intervention may mute valuable market signals regarding economic efficiency and stability.

Huberto M. Ennis and Jeff Huther

Article

Climate Change and Financial Stability? Recalling Lessons from the Great Recession

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-27

Some argue that damages from climate change aren't large enough to affect the financial system, but what about amplification effects?

Toan Phan

Article

A person online applying for unemployment compensation

Unemployment Insurance: Economic Lessons from the Last Two Recessions

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-26

Unemployment insurance seems to help smooth consumer spending after a job loss, but there's disagreement on how much it discourages people from finding new jobs.

Marios Karabarbounis

Working Paper

Pile of money spread out showing $100 bill

On Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration (Revised March 2023)

Working Paper Series

August 2021, No. 21-13R

How do local government borrowing, default, and migration interact? We find in-migration results in excessive debt accumulation due to a key externality: Immigrants help repay previously issued debt.

Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana

Article

How Much Does Household Consumption Impact Business Cycles?

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-25

Household consumption shocks have accounted for close to 40 percent of pre-pandemic business cycle fluctuations.

Christian Matthes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

Ayşegül Şahin

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2021

University of Texas at Austin economist on wage growth, labor's share of income, and the gender unemployment gap

David A. Price

Article

Can an Individual Large Firm Impact the U.S. Business Cycle?

Economic Brief

August 2021, No. 21-24

Contrary to the traditional view, adverse events for a single firm can affect the economy as a whole, if the firm is large enough.

Chen Yeh

Article

How Macroeconomic Forecasters Adjusted During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic Brief

June 2021, No. 21-19

Without a recent directly comparable episode, economic forecasters modified their models or sought additional information in data to create forecasts during the pandemic.

Paul Ho

Article

woman advising another woman who is holding a baby

The Shortcomings of a Work-Biased Welfare System

Economic Brief

May 2021, No. 21-15

Recent legislation has again highlighted the U.S. welfare system. This EB summarizes the welfare system and a "work bias" embedded in many U.S. welfare programs.

Claudia Macaluso

Article

Seek and Ye Shall Not Find: The Absence of Hysteresis in U.S. Macroeconomic Data

Economic Brief

February 2021, No. 21-04

Conducting a statistical analysis of U.S. economic data, economists from the Richmond Fed and the University of Bern find no evidence of hysteresis, the idea that seemingly temporary economic shocks can have permanent effects.

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Macroeconomic Effects of Household Pessimism and Optimism

Economic Brief

January 2021, No. 21-03

Households' expectations often differ from formal economic forecasts. The researchers quantify these differences and explain them by developing a "theory of time-varying pessimism." Embedding their new theory into a quantitative economic model, they find that fluctuations in pessimism have significant effects on macroeconomic measures, most notably the unemployment rate.

Anmol Bhandari, Jaroslav Borovicka and Paul Ho

Blog Post

Housing Prices in the Fifth District During COVID-19

Regional Matters

November 9, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe economic distress in the Fifth District, but the regional housing market has proven remarkably resilient.

Benjamin Lukas
Intern (2020)

Article

Don't Graduate into a Recession

Econ Focus

Second/Third Quarter 2020

Much of the previous economic research on the aftermath of recessions has focused on their short-term effects on earnings and jobs. New research suggests that with longer-term consequences, workers' earnings, health and family outcomes may be affected.

Emily Green

Working Paper

Is There News in Inventories?

Working Paper Series

May 2020, No. 20-03

This paper identifies total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and documents a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Talking Ourselves into a Recession

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2019

There is enough research to suggest that sentiment does play a role in shaping the business cycle. The question facing policymakers is what to do about it.

Tim Sablik

Speech

View of Richmond, VA with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond looming tall

Is a Recession Around the Corner?

Jan. 9, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discusses economic conditions and the potential for a recession.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

Economic Brief

January 2020, No. 20-01

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s?

Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik

Speech

Is a Recession Around the Corner?

Jan. 3, 2020

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin discusses economic conditions and the potential for a recession.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Predicting Recessions

Economic Brief

December 2019, No. 19-12

This Economic Brief evaluates the predictive capabilities of the yield curve and several other leading indicators, including the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturing activity, consumer lending, and CEO optimism.

Matthew Murphy, Jessie Romero and Roy H. Webb

Article

Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles

Economic Brief

April 2019, No. 19-04

This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component (cycles up to thirty-two years), and a long-term component (the trend).

Renee Haltom, Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Fabio Verona

Article

A Yield sign with dollar sign in a down arrow

Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely?

Economic Brief

December 2018, No. 18-12

The recent flattening of the yield curve has raised concerns that a recession is around the corner. Such concerns stem partly from the fact that yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions.

Renee Haltom, Elaine Wissuchek and Alexander L. Wolman

Article

a small piggy bank and a big piggy bank balanced on a seesaw

The Differing Effects of the Business Cycle on Small and Large Banks

Economic Brief

November 2018, No. 18-11

Small banks do, in fact, play a special role in the intermediation of credit in the U.S. economy. But when the cyclical properties of NIM are decomposed into the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet, it appears that the liability side drives the difference in the performance of small and large banks.

Borys Grochulski, Daniel Schwam, Aaron Steelman and Yuzhe Zhang

Article

The Roots of ‘Bubbly’ Recessions

Economic Brief

April 2018, No. 18-04

A downturn following the collapse of an asset bubble — an episode of speculative booms in asset prices — can be severe and sustained, with output and employment often lower than in the prebubble economy. This Economic Brief considers some possible theoretical explanations.

Helen Fessenden and Toan Phan

Article

A "New Normal"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States

Economic Brief

July 2016, No. 16-07

Economic growth in the United States following the Great Recession has been well below the post-World War II average. Some observers have called this the "new normal."

Aaron Steelman and John A. Weinberg

Article

Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles

Economic Brief

June 2016, No. 16-06

Real business cycle (RBC) models have been highly successful at explaining business cycles that occurred before 1984. But since then, shifts in comovements and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates have challenged their preeminence.

Thomas A. Lubik, Karl Rhodes, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

The Competitiveness of Inner Cities

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2015

Are the majority of inner cities experiencing a renaissance thanks to rapid gentrification, or is growth limited to a small number of high-technology regions, resulting in inequality among metropolitan areas?

Lisa Davis

Article

Aggregate Demand

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2014

Aggregate demand is the total demand for all goods and services in an economy. Should the government try to boost it with fiscal stimulus during recessions?

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Economic Outlook, April 2015

April 10, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed the Global Interdependence Center in Sarasota, Florida.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Economic Outlook, March 2015

March 31, 2015

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker addressed the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Nicholas Bloom

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2014

Stanford University economist on the effects of economic uncertainty, the role of management practices in economic performance, and fostering good management

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Economic Outlook, July 2014

July 8, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker addressed business leaders during a luncheon hosted by the Rotary Club of Charlotte in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?

Economic Brief

June 2014, No. 14-06

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Fabian Lange and Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Large and Small Sellers: A Theory of Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Sequential Search

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-08

This paper studies equilibrium pricing in a product market for an indivisible good where buyers search for sellers.

Guido Menzio and Nicholas Trachter

Working Paper

What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed (Revised May 2015)

Working Paper Series

March 2014, No. 14-06R

In this paper, we show that variations in the discount factor estimated using inventories correlate well with established independent measures of credit market frictions.

Thomas A. Lubik, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys: A User's Guide

Economic Brief

March 2014, No. 14-03

The Richmond Fed conducts monthly surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors of the Fifth Federal Reserve District. This article provides background information on these surveys and on other manufacturing and service sector surveys.

David A. Price and Aileen Watson

Speech

Economic Outlook, January 2014

Jan. 17, 2014

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke about the economic outlook Jan. 17, 2014, in remarks to the Richmond chapter of the Risk Management Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

The Shifting and Twisting Beveridge Curve: An Aggregate Perspective

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-16

Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Learning about Fiscal Policy and the Effects of Policy Uncertainty

Working Paper Series

October 2013, No. 13-15

In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession.

Christian Matthes and Josef Hollmayr

Working Paper

The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy (Revised July 2017)

Working Paper Series

September 2013, No. 13-14R

We study the impact of intersectoral and interregional trade linkages in propagating disaggregated productivity changes to the rest of the economy.

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Fernando Parro and Lorenzo Caliendo

Working Paper

The Time-Varying Beveridge Curve

Working Paper Series

August 2013, No. 13-12

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model

Working Paper Series

August 2013, No. 13-11

In a stylized quantitative analysis, we show that the consumption effect dominates, so that unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. We also analyze the welfare-maximizing benefit level and find that it decreases as moving costs increase.

David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren

Working Paper

Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt

Working Paper Series

July 2013, No. 13-08

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

Working Paper

Can Monetarists Explain Recession in the Eurozone? (Revised August 2015)

Working Paper Series

July 2013, No. 13-07R

Robert L. Hetzel

Publication

Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search

Economic Brief

April 2013, No. 13-04

A new database of online job posting data sheds light on how workers search for jobs.

Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

Working Paper Series

February 2013, No. 13-01R

This paper provides a theoretical framework to quantitatively investigate the optimal accumulation of international reserves to hedge against rollover risk.

Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

Working Paper

Accounting for Unemployment: The Long and Short of It

Working Paper Series

November 2012, No. 12-07

In view of the increasing share of long-term unemployment since the 2007-09 recession, we provide an extension of the Shimer (2012) unemployment accounting scheme that allows for both short-term and long-term unemployment and that uses data on the duration distribution of unemployment.

Andreas Hornstein
(Emeritus)

Publication

The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and Recovery

Economic Brief

June 2012, No. 12-06

Marianna Kudlyak and David A. Price

Working Paper

Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters

Working Paper Series

June 2012, No. 12-04

We show that, whereas during earlier recessions it was sufficient to examine the flows between employment and unemployment to account for the dynamics of the unemployment rate, this was not true in the Great Recession.

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data (Revised September 2014)

Working Paper Series

April 2012, No. 12-03R

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev

Working Paper

Sales, Inventories, and Real Interest Rates: A Century of Stylized Facts

Working Paper Series

April 2012, No. 12-02

Luca Benati and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Working Paper Series

March 2012, No. 12-01

This paper examines the optimality of fiscal rules and measures their aggregate effects using a baseline sovereign default framework.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

Publication

Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle?

Economic Brief

January 2012, No. 12-01

As households strengthen their balance sheets, their ability to take on new debt to finance consumption is improving, but household debt remains elevated by historical standards, and other determinants of consumer spending remain weak.

R. Andrew Bauer and Betty Joyce Nash

Publication

Recoveries From Recessions Associated With Banking Crises: How Does This One Compare?

Economic Brief

November 2011, No. 11-11

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, David A. Price and Jonathan Tompkins

Publication

Fifth District Manufacturing and the Recession: An Analysis of Subsector Performance

Economic Brief

October 2011, No. 11-10

Robert Schnorbus and Judy Cox

Publication

Potential Causes and Implications of the Rise in Long-Term Unemployment

Economic Brief

September 2011, No. 11-09

Andreas Hornstein, Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

Working Paper

Transition Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model: The Case of South Korea (Revised August 2013)

Working Paper Series

August 2011, No. 11-04R

Yongsung Chang and Andreas Hornstein

Speech

What Does the Path to Full Recovery Look Like?

July 28, 2011

Lacker Addresses Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, Chantilly, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Manufacturing in the New Southern Economy

June 13, 2011

Lacker speaks at Southern Growth's 2011 Chairman's Conference in Roanoke, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Small Business Lending During the Recession

Economic Brief

February 2011, No. 11-02

Since the recession started in 2007, there has been a growing concern that small businesses may lack adequate access to credit. This Economic Brief examines the complexity of small business credit issues.

Betty Joyce Nash and Kimberly Zeuli

Publication

The Service Sector and the "Great Recession"

Economic Brief

December 2010, No. 10-12

Robert Schnorbus and Aileen Watson

Working Paper

Time to Produce and Emerging Market Crises (Revised July 2012)

Working Paper Series

October 2010, No. 10-15R

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Publication

The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: The Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)

Economic Brief

October 2010, No. 10-10

Marianna Kudlyak, David A. Price and Juan M. Sanchez

Speech

Economic Outlook, October 2010

Oct. 13, 2010

President Lacker Addresses Piedmont, N.C.'s Business Leaders

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

The Cyclical Price of Labor When Wages Are Smoothed

Working Paper Series

August 2010, No. 10-13

Marianna Kudlyak

Publication

When Did the Recession End?

Economic Brief

August 2010, No. 10-08

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Working Paper

On the Job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market

Working Paper Series

June 2010, No. 10-12

Michael U. Krause and Thomas A. Lubik

Working Paper

Learning About Informational Rigidities from Sectoral Data and Diffusion Indices

Working Paper Series

May 2010, No. 10-09

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Working Paper

Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk (Revised February 2012)

Working Paper Series

May 2010, No. 10-08R

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Cesar Sosa Padilla

Speech

The Piedmont-Triad Regional Economic Outlook, May 2010

May 11, 2010

Lacker Addresses Greensboro, NC Business Leaders

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models: Solution Methods Matter

Working Paper Series

March 2010, No. 10-04

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Horacio Sapriza

Publication

Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions

Economic Brief

April 2010, No. 10-04

Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly and Stephen Slivinski

Working Paper

Inventories, Inflation Dynamics, and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Working Paper Series

February 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Wing Leong Teo

Speech

The Economic Outlook, January 2010

Jan. 8, 2010

President Lacker addresses the Maryland Bankers Association

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Is the Output Gap a Faulty Gauge for Monetary Policy?

Economic Brief

January 2010, No. 10-01

Thomas A. Lubik and Stephen Slivinski

Region Focus - Fall 2009

Region Focus

Fall 2009

Cover Story: The Price is Right? Has the financial crisis provided a fatal blow to the efficient market hypothesis?

Speech

The Economic Outlook

Dec. 2, 2009

President Lacker addresses Charlotte business leaders

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Region Focus - Summer 2009

Region Focus

Summer 2009

Cover Story: Measuring Quality of Life: How should we assess improvements to our standard of living?

Economists and policymakers often use average income as a way to gauge a country's "standard of living." But income alone doesn't capture overall quality of life. Should policymakers use other measures — including health, education, and even aggregate happiness — when making economic policy?
Related Links

Speech

The Economic Outlook

Nov. 17, 2009

Lacker addresses VA House Appropriations Committee

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

On the Cyclicality of the Interest Rate in Emerging Economy Models: Solution Methods Matter

Working Paper Series

October 2009, No. 09-13

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Horacio Sapriza

Publication

The Case for Direct Methods to Address CO2 Emissions and Other Negative Environmental Externalities

Economic Brief

October 2009, No. 09-10

Existing policies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) largely have been structured to subsidize alternative energy technologies. Yet these policies are likely not to be as useful as ones that target CO2 emissions directly, such as an emissions tax or a "cap and trade" program.

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

Working Paper

The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor (Revised: March 2013)

Working Paper Series

September 2009, No. 09-12R

Marianna Kudlyak

Speech

Choices in Financial Regulation

Sept. 14, 2009

Lacker Speech to Charlotte RMA (Video Available)

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Region Focus - Spring 2009

Region Focus

Spring 2009

Cover Story: Reforming the Raters: Can regulatory reforms adequately realign the incentives of credit rating agencies?

Speech

The Economic Outlook

Aug. 27, 2009

Lacker Speaks to Danville Chamber of Commerce

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

Recent Fiscal Policy and the Manipulation of Aggregate Economic Activity

Economic Brief

August 2009, No. 09-08

It is widely believed that public sector spending and investment can restore aggregate economic activity to efficient levels. But some policy responses are likely to be more successful than others.

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

Speech

The Economic Outlook

June 10, 2009

Lacker Speaks at North Carolina Senate Appropriations Committee

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Role of the Safety Net in the Financial Crisis

May 11, 2009

Lacker Speaks at Beijing Banking Summit

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Economic Outlook

May 4, 2009

President Lacker speaks to Charlottesville, Va., business leaders

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

What We Do and Don't Know about Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Economic Brief

April 2009, No. 09-04

Renee Haltom
Vice President and Regional Executive

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

March 26, 2009

President Jeffrey Lacker speaks to the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Government Lending and Monetary Policy

March 2, 2009

President Lacker addresses the National Association for Business Economics at the 2009 Washington Economic Policy Conference

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets

Working Paper Series

February 2009, No. 09-1

In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical.

Gabriel Cuadra, Juan M. Sanchez and Horacio Sapriza

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

Jan. 16, 2009

President Lacker addresses the Risk Management Association, Richmond Chapter

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

Jan. 9, 2009

President Lacker speaks to the Maryland Bankers Association.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

Dec. 3, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke December 3, 2008, at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Conference in Charlotte, N.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

Nov. 21, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke at the November 21, 2008 meeting of The Tech Council of Maryland in Bethesda, Md.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

What Lessons Can We Learn From the Boom and Turmoil?

Nov. 19, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke November 18, 2008 at the CATO Institute's 26th Annual Monetary Conference in Washington, D.C.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Financial Conditions and the Economic Outlook

Nov. 3, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke at the Global Interdependence Center Conference held November 3, 2008 at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Financial Stability and Central Banks

June 5, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke June 5, 2008 at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar European Economics and Financial Centre, London, England.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis

Working Paper Series

March 2008, No. 08-1

Michael U. Krause, David Lopez-Salido and Thomas A. Lubik

Speech

The Economic Outlook for 2008

Feb. 5, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke February 5, 2008 to the West Virginia Bankers Association and the Community Bankers of West Virginia in Charleston, W.Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

The Economic Outlook for 2008

Jan. 18, 2008

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker spoke January 18, 2008 to the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Va.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Working Paper

Computing Business Cycles in Emerging Economy Models

Working Paper Series

December 2006, No. 06-11

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Horacio Sapriza

Working Paper

The Lucas Critique and the Stability of Empirical Models

Working Paper Series

May 2006, No. 06-5

Thomas A. Lubik and Paolo Surico

Working Paper

An Inquiry into the Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium with State-Dependent Pricing

Working Paper Series

April 2004, No. 04-4

A. Andrew John and Alexander L. Wolman

Speech

Comments on Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

Jan. 3, 2003

It's a pleasure to be here today and to have this opportunity to comment on conducting monetary policy in a low inflation environment.

J. Alfred Broaddus
President

Publication

Annual Report - 2002

Annual Report

2002

Reviews the Bank's operations and includes the article entitled "Accounting for Corporate Behavior"

Working Paper

The Case for Price Stability

Working Paper Series

April 2001, No. 01-2

Marvin Goodfriend and Robert G. King