Regional Analysts

A price measure derived from Richmond Fed survey data appears to be a productive way to improve any prediction of inflation.

With a government shutdown and significant delays in getting timely official data, what is the difference between the Richmond Fed price index and the PCE price index?

Though tariff uncertainty persists, most Fifth District businesses that are directly affected by tariffs have raised prices, and many plan to raise prices in the coming months.

According to our May business surveys, most firms are responding to tariffs in a variety of ways, including planning and implementing price increases, delaying capital expenditures, and changing hiring plans.

Survey data suggests firms are monitoring inflation and expect it to rise in the next year, many citing trade policy as a driving force behind the increase.

The recent tariff announcement implies that the average effective tariff rate would rise further compared to our previous analysis.

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

In March, we asked Fifth District businesses about the impacts of tariffs. Most expected to be impacted negatively and anticipated passing through some of the additional costs to customers.

In February, we asked firms how they would react to unanticipated cost increases. Most reported that they would increase customer prices, but passing costs to customers is equally or more difficult than last year.

Fifth District businesses are concerned about tariffs, especially those that source inputs or sell outputs abroad. However, data from our December business surveys suggests little relationship between tariff concerns and firms' 2025 price and cost growth expectations.

Customer spending in the Fifth District has been on a decline according to results from the Richmond Fed's business surveys. This pullback was especially true among lower-income individuals.

The Richmond Fed business survey results suggest that wage growth is slowing, and firms expect a return to pre-COVID-19 levels over the next year.

Firms are planning to maintain or increase their workforce in 2024, despite persistent hiring challenges and a recent downturn in short-run expectations.

Although our surveys show signs that the labor market may be cooling, many Fifth District firms continue to report difficulty finding workers with the right skill sets.

The labor market has surprised economists and forecasters with its resilience. Data from our business surveys indicate that the Fifth District labor market may be cooling.

Since the second half of 2022, we have observed firms increasingly pulling back on capital expenditures.

Supply chain disruptions and fluctuating input costs are improving for some Fifth District firms, but the threat of a recession looms large according to August's surveys of businesses.