Survey data suggests firms are monitoring inflation and expect it to rise in the next year, many citing trade policy as a driving force behind the increase.

The recent tariff announcement implies that the average effective tariff rate would rise further compared to our previous analysis.

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

In March, we asked Fifth District businesses about the impacts of tariffs. Most expected to be impacted negatively and anticipated passing through some of the additional costs to customers.

By examining where federal spending occurs in Fifth District states, we can assess which areas could be more impacted by spending cuts.

The benefits of early childhood education are well known, but factors such as cost and a shortage of child care workers still present obstacles.

A reduction of the federal workforce will affect D.C., Maryland, and Virginia more extensively than the rest of the country, but much depends on how and where the cuts occur.

Fifth District businesses are concerned about tariffs, especially those that source inputs or sell outputs abroad. However, data from our December business surveys suggests little relationship between tariff concerns and firms' 2025 price and cost growth expectations.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton have put a spotlight on both the immediate and long-term aftermath of such storms.

Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic damage to Fifth District communities, presenting challenges to the long recovery ahead.

With an anticipated decline in the college-age population, high costs of four-year degrees, and changing demands among employers, parents, and students, higher education seems to be at a crossroads.

Firms continue to innovate and automate, although responses from Fifth District business respondents illustrate that we are in the early days of AI adoption.

Results from the Richmond Fed's May monthly business surveys indicate that for now, firms report employment gains that are driven by increased hiring more than declining separations.

Negative impacts seem to be more muted than expected, and some firms say RTO increased employment.

Even though expectations are not paramount in how most firms set their prices, there is evidence that inflation expectations matter.

We regularly report the quantitative results from the Richmond Fed business surveys, but participants' comments also provide useful context for changes in local business conditions.

Understanding and appropriately measuring the role that community colleges play in rural areas is important to how we evaluate policies and funding for workforce and community development throughout the rural Fifth District.

After two years of tightness, many labor market measures have made notable progress toward reaching more normal levels. But we might still have some time before we see the same for wage growth.

The labor market has surprised economists and forecasters with its resilience. Data from our business surveys indicate that the Fifth District labor market may be cooling.

The Richmond Fed business surveys, like other surveys, find that firms are facing tightened credit conditions. However, most surveyed firms, regardless of size, have not needed to seek new credit.

Our Fifth District business surveys indicate that firms are paying more attention to inflation as they make price- and wage-setting decisions. But businesses also expect own-price growth and inflation to moderate in the near future.

Data suggest that labor market tightness has meant an increased number of open jobs per unemployed worker and heightened employer recruiting effort per vacancy.

Diffusion indexes can help summarize survey responses, but they have some limitations.

Numerous factors — including population growth, education, housing, transportation, child care, health, and broadband availability — are shaping the differences in employment outcomes between rural and urban communities.

In our March business survey, we found that firms continue to struggle finding workers across skill levels, particularly in the low- to mid-skill range.

Many firms don't follow inflation closely for setting prices, but the recent high inflation may have some firms taking a closer look.

Fifth District firms report that two years into the pandemic, they still cannot provide enough goods and services to completely meet customer demand.

Remote work options seem to go hand in hand with greater geographic reach in recruitment efforts for some firms.

Heirs' property, land passed through generations without a clear title, is an unstable form of landownership that can lead to lost capital and wealth.

The labor force was pushed into a massive remote work experiment in 2020. What are employers in the Fifth District planning, and what challenges do they anticipate?

Recent Richmond Fed surveys shed light on how employers attempt to fill jobs.

Many states have enacted legislation in the last year to increase the minimum wage, and those increases will have both direct and indirect effects on workers, households, and businesses in the District.

The economic recovery enabled by the vaccine rollout has increased demand for Fifth District goods and services. But can supply keep up with demand?

Rural black Fifth District communities have long suffered fewer economic opportunities and thus worse economic outcomes.

Labor force participation took a big hit from the pandemic. How then should we interpret states' reported unemployment rates?

This article provides some history on the evolution of the Fifth District population across race and the rural-urban continuum since the late 1800s.

Fifth District business surveys indicate that after a volatile year, firms remain uncertain about when or if they will return to pre-COVID levels of business activity.

What's behind those consumer spending and saving dynamics, and what do those April numbers mean for the broader economy?

Between mid-March and early April, more than 360,000 Virginians filed for unemployment. What does this mean for employment measures and the state's economy?

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?

On March 13, 2020, the President declared a national state of emergency and by March 16, every state and the District of Columbia had declared states of emergency, all due to the rapid escalation of positive cases of COVID-19. However, Fifth District firms were reporting impacts from the virus before the emergency declarations and the initiation of social distancing mandates in states and localities across the country.

Why are hospitals in rural areas closing at a higher rate, and what are the consequences for these communities?

The Richmond Fed looks at the economic impact of the opioid crisis in the Fifth District.

In April, we surveyed firms about their adoption of technology and how it might translate into prices and employment in the next few years. Most firms reported adopting new technology, although many did not anticipate the technology to notably impact their pricing or employment decisions.

The Fifth District economy has been increasingly driven by urban areas. How do we understand the existence, growth and decline of cities?

Fifth District states — especially West Virginia — are struggling with the opioid epidemic as drug use and opioid overdose deaths continue to rise.

The Richmond Fed publishes a series of diffusion indices based off of surveys of manufacturing and service sector firms across the Fifth District. These indices help us to understand business conditions in our region in a timely and more comprehensive way.

There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks across the country: How did one land in Richmond, Virginia?

We study the regional variation in foreclosure rates in more detail by examining two localities in our district: Prince William County, Virginia, and Charlotte, North Carolina.