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Economic Review

Jan/Feb, 1984

The Economic Outlook for Fifth District States in 1984: Forecasts from Vector Autoregression Models

Anatoli Kuprianov and William M. Lupoletti

Anatoli Kuprianov and William Lupoletti employ the VAR technique to forecast the regional economy in "The Economic Outlook for Fifth District States in 1984." The authors document the experiences of the economies of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and the District of Columbia over the past 25 years. After summarizing the differences between conventional and VAR forecasting models, they present forecasts of each state for 1984 produced by a five-variable VAR model. These forecasts suggest that the recovery of 1983 should continue through 1984 for most Fifth District states.

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