Economic Research
We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.
Featured
Speech
National and State Economic Outlook
Matt Martin, regional executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discussed state and national economic conditions with a group of community bankers in Columbia, S.C., in January 2019.
Academic Publication
Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
By Daisuke Ikeda and Toan Phan
Two-sided Market, R&D and Payments System Evolution
February 2019, No. 19-03
Bin Grace Li, James McAndrews and Zhu Wang
Playing with Money
February 2019, No. 19-02
Douglas Davis, Oleg Korenok, Peter Norman, Bruno Sultanum and Randall Wright
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
February 11, 2019
The NEI was 7.8 percent in January 2019, edging up from 7.7 percent in December 2018. It has declined by 0.1 percentage points since January 2018.
Month,HKL Nonemployment Index,HKL Nonemployment Index Including PTER,Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached (U-5),Unemployed plus Marginally Attached and PTER (U-6) 1994-01-01,10.02432476,11.09114527,6.6,8.1,11.8 1994-02-01,9.850390065,11.00695198,6.6,7.9,11.4 1994-03-01,9.744973613,10.95932546,6.5,7.7,11.4 1994-04-01,9.610944264,10.7958032,6.4,7.6,11.2 1994-05-01,9.399794489,10.62275015,6.1,7.2,10.8 1994-06-01,9.394291919,10.60695968,6.1,7.3,10.9 1994-07-01,9.33558045,10.49671669,6.1,7.3,10.7 1994-08-01,9.284344995,10.4031401,6,7.2,10.5 1994-09-01,9.195911049,10.30349095,5.9,7.1,10.4 1994-10-01,9.120752437,10.2606044,5.8,6.9,10.3 1994-11-01,9.020843713,10.17143265,5.6,6.7,10.1 1994-12-01,8.940417614,10.0575967,5.5,6.7,10 1995-01-01,8.96129841,10.15530946,5.6,6.8,10.2 1995-02-01,8.890781541,9.972418433,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-03-01,8.92679927,10.03009881,5.4,6.6,9.9 1995-04-01,9.016701939,10.10801712,5.8,6.7,10 1995-05-01,9.055898019,10.19209525,5.6,6.6,10 1995-06-01,8.995001517,10.1164907,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-07-01,8.981460216,10.1170639,5.7,6.7,10.1 1995-08-01,9.021107609,10.16619762,5.7,6.7,10 1995-09-01,9.012183165,10.16129505,5.6,6.7,10.1 1995-10-01,9.004802686,10.12635735,5.5,6.6,9.9 1995-11-01,8.992020976,10.12803356,5.6,6.6,10 1995-12-01,9.013490182,10.12236833,5.6,6.7,10 1996-01-01,8.984760437,10.02791712,5.6,6.8,9.8 1996-02-01,8.962169013,10.04644325,5.5,6.7,10 1996-03-01,8.897374474,9.993016047,5.5,6.6,9.8 1996-04-01,8.888667138,9.971512282,5.6,6.6,9.9 1996-05-01,8.901289742,9.983089466,5.6,6.5,9.7 1996-06-01,8.755787779,9.827149481,5.3,6.4,9.6 1996-07-01,8.762108891,9.868843561,5.5,6.5,9.7 1996-08-01,8.675259306,9.77436353,5.1,6.1,9.3 1996-09-01,8.612705028,9.696288044,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-10-01,8.660754752,9.74391321,5.2,6.2,9.4 1996-11-01,8.74146737,9.749244848,5.4,6.4,9.3 1996-12-01,8.66757337,9.747525203,5.4,6.3,9.5 1997-01-01,8.664550995,9.729175187,5.3,6.4,9.4 1997-02-01,8.664632356,9.699749034,5.2,6.3,9.4 1997-03-01,8.575116902,9.586414325,5.2,6.1,9.1 1997-04-01,8.473122087,9.516764569,5.1,6,9.2 1997-05-01,8.463064764,9.461550195,4.9,5.8,8.8 1997-06-01,8.422774336,9.404894995,5,5.9,8.8 1997-07-01,8.290845199,9.304665153,4.9,5.7,8.6 1997-08-01,8.253624359,9.251374039,4.8,5.7,8.6 1997-09-01,8.330966565,9.309307149,4.9,5.8,8.7 1997-10-01,8.228932629,9.206861096,4.7,5.6,8.4 1997-11-01,8.19819789,9.171138935,4.6,5.5,8.3 1997-12-01,8.224072598,9.166933267,4.7,5.7,8.4 1998-01-01,8.143824661,9.123698853,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-02-01,8.095499433,9.037153332,4.6,5.6,8.4 1998-03-01,8.145033114,9.083792621,4.7,5.6,8.4 1998-04-01,7.977791882,8.859614735,4.3,5.2,7.9 1998-05-01,7.990406211,8.908131587,4.4,5.2,7.9 1998-06-01,8.057905686,8.979149323,4.5,5.3,8 1998-07-01,8.116174699,9.064579055,4.5,5.4,8.1 1998-08-01,8.089483528,8.957381279,4.5,5.3,7.9 1998-09-01,8.039205965,8.878391485,4.6,5.4,7.9 1998-10-01,8.054794822,8.894335357,4.5,5.3,7.8 1998-11-01,7.957809035,8.763815143,4.4,5.2,7.6 1998-12-01,7.933308491,8.758073579,4.4,5.1,7.6 1999-01-01,7.916387446,8.760610796,4.3,5.2,7.7 1999-02-01,7.95696111,8.783525867,4.4,5.3,7.7 1999-03-01,7.906199874,8.761972545,4.2,5,7.6 1999-04-01,8.087717632,8.879671335,4.3,5.2,7.6 1999-05-01,7.923961649,8.753889902,4.2,5,7.4 1999-06-01,7.94559515,8.764250034,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-07-01,7.892279277,8.718569753,4.3,5.1,7.5 1999-08-01,7.86396533,8.665397678,4.2,5,7.3 1999-09-01,7.880501402,8.672369254,4.2,5,7.4 1999-10-01,7.777094256,8.539791501,4.1,4.9,7.2 1999-11-01,7.747840177,8.506990115,4.1,4.8,7.1 1999-12-01,7.699584821,8.480529916,4,4.8,7.1 2000-01-01,7.643177022,8.402863601,4,4.8,7.1 2000-02-01,7.75741754,8.503598094,4.1,5,7.2 2000-03-01,7.78077772,8.541306878,4,4.8,7.1 2000-04-01,7.654798606,8.378663477,3.8,4.7,6.9 2000-05-01,7.831030818,8.617862201,4,4.8,7.1 2000-06-01,7.673727104,8.423692937,4,4.7,7 2000-07-01,7.687311921,8.442436619,4,4.8,7 2000-08-01,7.718985356,8.492911622,4.1,4.8,7.1 2000-09-01,7.682440869,8.442225129,3.9,4.7,7 2000-10-01,7.668022607,8.419949038,3.9,4.6,6.8 2000-11-01,7.702738303,8.492409237,3.9,4.7,7.1 2000-12-01,7.686830338,8.436860867,3.9,4.7,6.9 2001-01-01,7.778083289,8.556279665,4.2,5,7.3 2001-02-01,7.809855422,8.571685148,4.2,5.1,7.4 2001-03-01,7.870183845,8.633817429,4.3,5,7.3 2001-04-01,8.020654006,8.769407453,4.4,5.1,7.4 2001-05-01,8.10968395,8.923745717,4.3,5.1,7.5 2001-06-01,8.189054797,9.069696224,4.5,5.3,7.9 2001-07-01,8.14381648,8.985581006,4.6,5.4,7.8 2001-08-01,8.458950508,9.272460382,4.9,5.8,8.1 2001-09-01,8.429814958,9.409201207,5,5.8,8.7 2001-10-01,8.69342598,9.718704939,5.3,6.2,9.3 2001-11-01,8.781966471,9.750511642,5.5,6.4,9.4 2001-12-01,8.891885638,9.8995623,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-01-01,8.967747555,9.904729148,5.7,6.7,9.5 2002-02-01,8.872354205,9.84791012,5.7,6.6,9.5 2002-03-01,8.856709101,9.801677459,5.7,6.6,9.4 2002-04-01,8.924221554,9.875087264,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-05-01,8.849369382,9.803710708,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-06-01,8.838223661,9.775086071,5.8,6.7,9.5 2002-07-01,8.855071007,9.823089603,5.8,6.8,9.6 2002-08-01,8.791330265,9.817907496,5.7,6.7,9.6 2002-09-01,8.755239198,9.747203431,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-10-01,8.730093221,9.722092389,5.7,6.6,9.6 2002-11-01,8.871441719,9.831102864,5.9,6.8,9.7 2002-12-01,8.802635455,9.780874066,6,6.9,9.8 2003-01-01,8.849316077,9.893239382,5.8,6.9,10 2003-02-01,8.874682526,9.954547511,5.9,6.9,10.2 2003-03-01,8.986829508,10.04566169,5.9,6.9,10 2003-04-01,8.941333006,10.01470634,6,6.9,10.2 2003-05-01,9.016473027,10.06317531,6.1,7,10.1 2003-06-01,9.055297027,10.10204087,6.3,7.2,10.3 2003-07-01,9.024098959,10.0882483,6.2,7.1,10.3 2003-08-01,8.999770741,10.03794328,6.1,7.1,10.1 2003-09-01,8.987373267,10.08944593,6.1,7.1,10.4 2003-10-01,8.97513273,10.04761603,6,7,10.2 2003-11-01,8.839920293,9.903028455,5.8,6.8,10 2003-12-01,8.826701829,9.89447651,5.7,6.6,9.8 2004-01-01,8.767844901,9.829656755,5.7,6.8,9.9 2004-02-01,8.720391493,9.730045041,5.6,6.6,9.7 2004-03-01,8.846303586,9.914801852,5.8,6.8,10 2004-04-01,8.718897832,9.729482448,5.6,6.5,9.6 2004-05-01,8.711854255,9.749521685,5.6,6.6,9.6 2004-06-01,8.68900307,9.688740854,5.6,6.6,9.5 2004-07-01,8.680350682,9.681869586,5.5,6.5,9.5 2004-08-01,8.651260599,9.680782587,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-09-01,8.634737811,9.64004699,5.4,6.4,9.4 2004-10-01,8.671657296,9.735308065,5.5,6.5,9.7 2004-11-01,8.624585258,9.615423348,5.4,6.3,9.4 2004-12-01,8.611060376,9.600079491,5.4,6.3,9.2 2005-01-01,8.561585279,9.535732291,5.3,6.4,9.3 2005-02-01,8.621779276,9.565529616,5.4,6.4,9.3 2005-03-01,8.545754862,9.525386718,5.2,6.2,9.1 2005-04-01,8.505997755,9.43306398,5.2,6.1,8.9 2005-05-01,8.427037205,9.391603146,5.1,6,8.9 2005-06-01,8.458917452,9.443780105,5,6,9 2005-07-01,8.371604606,9.346011416,5,5.9,8.8 2005-08-01,8.285737192,9.299811132,4.9,5.9,8.9 2005-09-01,8.433233207,9.468453162,5,5.9,9 2005-10-01,8.393111804,9.333332582,5,5.9,8.7 2005-11-01,8.456746872,9.363913882,5,5.9,8.7 2005-12-01,8.409980312,9.312019465,4.9,5.8,8.6 2006-01-01,8.297034924,9.197012728,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-02-01,8.292596649,9.211213498,4.8,5.7,8.4 2006-03-01,8.189827093,9.064852664,4.7,5.6,8.2 2006-04-01,8.325249307,9.152924633,4.7,5.5,8.1 2006-05-01,8.146232512,9.050795968,4.6,5.5,8.2 2006-06-01,8.138763659,9.080253574,4.6,5.6,8.4 2006-07-01,8.198666454,9.138293095,4.7,5.7,8.5 2006-08-01,8.16627543,9.10406067,4.7,5.7,8.4 2006-09-01,8.151918467,9.068893582,4.5,5.3,8 2006-10-01,8.115091901,9.06541608,4.4,5.3,8.2 2006-11-01,8.166101043,9.058901871,4.5,5.4,8.1 2006-12-01,8.065295235,8.971395117,4.4,5.2,7.9 2007-01-01,8.141016906,9.0591936,4.6,5.6,8.4 2007-02-01,8.112328038,9.02053854,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-03-01,7.959797868,8.883364902,4.4,5.3,8 2007-04-01,8.239749093,9.143479324,4.5,5.4,8.2 2007-05-01,8.191198378,9.161113319,4.4,5.3,8.2 2007-06-01,8.159786315,9.091299072,4.6,5.5,8.3 2007-07-01,8.178758721,9.1297525,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-08-01,8.206002453,9.217277754,4.6,5.5,8.4 2007-09-01,8.25208298,9.248091349,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-10-01,8.248776422,9.18985752,4.7,5.6,8.4 2007-11-01,8.16740103,9.118303239,4.7,5.5,8.4 2007-12-01,8.33788963,9.319562769,5,5.8,8.8 2008-01-01,8.351545342,9.389890552,5,6,9.2 2008-02-01,8.341003866,9.384394281,4.9,5.9,9 2008-03-01,8.459694657,9.512599687,5.1,5.9,9.1 2008-04-01,8.489256592,9.57455291,5,5.8,9.2 2008-05-01,8.643864485,9.779055221,5.4,6.3,9.7 2008-06-01,8.697827748,9.883554487,5.6,6.5,10.1 2008-07-01,8.881399958,10.16665397,5.8,6.7,10.5 2008-08-01,9.027100104,10.29921424,6.1,7.1,10.8 2008-09-01,9.114655948,10.44077918,6.1,7.1,11 2008-10-01,9.253626195,10.68269249,6.5,7.5,11.8 2008-11-01,9.505307762,11.04458561,6.8,8,12.6 2008-12-01,9.77858819,11.47931002,7.3,8.4,13.6 2009-01-01,10.21100843,11.94012914,7.8,9.1,14.2 2009-02-01,10.4292027,12.28984258,8.3,9.5,15.2 2009-03-01,10.62291409,12.5619871,8.7,9.9,15.8 2009-04-01,10.72141934,12.57693094,9,10.2,15.9 2009-05-01,10.9209682,12.85181931,9.4,10.6,16.5 2009-06-01,10.96338034,12.89413413,9.5,10.8,16.5 2009-07-01,10.80142904,12.73315417,9.5,10.8,16.4 2009-08-01,10.81481121,12.73458336,9.6,10.9,16.7 2009-09-01,10.88609652,12.74594484,9.8,11,16.7 2009-10-01,10.99914862,12.89874549,10,11.4,17.1 2009-11-01,10.85521499,12.75956401,9.9,11.2,17.1 2009-12-01,10.91896931,12.82458363,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-01-01,10.83070453,12.63879294,9.8,11.3,16.7 2010-02-01,10.84020751,12.71758934,9.8,11.3,17 2010-03-01,10.81504199,12.75303303,9.9,11.2,17.1 2010-04-01,10.66466353,12.58327115,9.9,11.3,17.1 2010-05-01,10.55298841,12.41175494,9.6,10.9,16.6 2010-06-01,10.47725394,12.30284494,9.4,10.9,16.4 2010-07-01,10.54077783,12.37971566,9.4,11,16.4 2010-08-01,10.61150386,12.45576635,9.5,10.9,16.5 2010-09-01,10.64026909,12.53580961,9.5,10.9,16.8 2010-10-01,10.59061882,12.45114565,9.4,11,16.6 2010-11-01,10.74044928,12.57951476,9.8,11.2,16.9 2010-12-01,10.54385829,12.40565815,9.3,10.9,16.6 2011-01-01,10.45994692,12.23902744,9.1,10.8,16.2 2011-02-01,10.40548672,12.17781802,9,10.6,16 2011-03-01,10.32010559,12.13136894,9,10.4,15.9 2011-04-01,10.4391486,12.25080102,9.1,10.5,16.1 2011-05-01,10.37826017,12.17782889,9,10.3,15.8 2011-06-01,10.48437756,12.2638672,9.1,10.7,16.1 2011-07-01,10.46941393,12.23467667,9,10.6,15.9 2011-08-01,10.40568671,12.21634205,9,10.5,16.1 2011-09-01,10.36824476,12.21050668,9,10.5,16.4 2011-10-01,10.31415138,12.125447,8.8,10.3,15.8 2011-11-01,10.24478795,11.99053716,8.6,10.1,15.5 2011-12-01,10.15878743,11.85529053,8.5,10,15.2 2012-01-01,10.04723494,11.74883339,8.3,9.9,15.2 2012-02-01,10.02537968,11.73311373,8.3,9.8,15 2012-03-01,10.02947823,11.64409355,8.2,9.6,14.5 2012-04-01,10.03084609,11.66786086,8.2,9.6,14.6 2012-05-01,9.992503079,11.67360867,8.2,9.6,14.7 2012-06-01,10.02794732,11.70478968,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-07-01,10.03861696,11.71700833,8.2,9.6,14.8 2012-08-01,10.09978825,11.71600278,8.1,9.6,14.6 2012-09-01,9.861259836,11.57589251,7.8,9.3,14.8 2012-10-01,9.824886808,11.53268979,7.8,9.2,14.4 2012-11-01,9.891102665,11.55643721,7.7,9.2,14.4 2012-12-01,9.944279402,11.57286746,7.9,9.4,14.4 2013-01-01,10.05673873,11.68059275,8,9.4,14.6 2013-02-01,9.87347413,11.54763616,7.7,9.2,14.4 2013-03-01,9.811187978,11.38823196,7.5,8.9,13.8 2013-04-01,9.820307215,11.44819597,7.6,8.9,14 2013-05-01,9.821753267,11.43297613,7.5,8.8,13.8 2013-06-01,9.795757482,11.45408404,7.5,9.1,14.2 2013-07-01,9.639323794,11.28507048,7.3,8.7,13.8 2013-08-01,9.547229598,11.11199209,7.2,8.6,13.6 2013-09-01,9.526299901,11.10738201,7.2,8.6,13.5 2013-10-01,9.589438647,11.25799238,7.2,8.5,13.6 2013-11-01,9.39195474,10.9594583,6.9,8.2,13.1 2013-12-01,9.32347805,10.91423754,6.7,8.1,13.1 2014-01-01,9.287010972,10.72891354,6.6,8.1,12.7 2014-02-01,9.305765439,10.79004227,6.7,8,12.6 2014-03-01,9.293881469,10.79449563,6.7,7.9,12.6 2014-04-01,9.122748632,10.64207896,6.2,7.5,12.3 2014-05-01,9.192326589,10.6414865,6.3,7.6,12.2 2014-06-01,9.090887357,10.59856495,6.1,7.3,12 2014-07-01,9.130797015,10.61847934,6.2,7.5,12.1 2014-08-01,9.163773919,10.5958159,6.1,7.4,12 2014-09-01,9.065808384,10.4760272,5.9,7.3,11.7 2014-10-01,8.917461207,10.39253861,5.7,7.1,11.5 2014-11-01,8.996572804,10.38400686,5.8,7.1,11.4 2014-12-01,8.869771291,10.24695732,5.6,6.9,11.2 2015-01-01,8.90770686,10.23651999,5.7,7,11.3 2015-02-01,8.855782879,10.19478229,5.5,6.8,11 2015-03-01,8.801334864,10.12368434,5.4,6.7,10.8 2015-04-01,8.797952945,10.1175015,5.4,6.7,10.8 2015-05-01,8.757308629,10.06004235,5.6,6.7,10.9 2015-06-01,8.7307245,10.00819486,5.3,6.4,10.4 2015-07-01,8.729199247,9.968679781,5.2,6.4,10.3 2015-08-01,8.554472377,9.833796879,5.1,6.2,10.2 2015-09-01,8.609553953,9.805985201,5,6.2,10 2015-10-01,8.589005664,9.800230674,5,6.2,9.8 2015-11-01,8.571125875,9.798665592,5.1,6.1,10 2015-12-01,8.501431417,9.710288231,5,6.1,9.9 2016-01-01,8.432950839,9.586875946,4.9,6.1,9.8 2016-02-01,8.433318205,9.61815944,4.9,6,9.7 2016-03-01,8.432322563,9.629169152,5,6,9.8 2016-04-01,8.48345782,9.669377767,5,6,9.7 2016-05-01,8.389846266,9.646834073,4.8,5.8,9.9 2016-06-01,8.384172865,9.514692773,4.9,6,9.5 2016-07-01,8.391569742,9.548675984,4.8,6,9.7 2016-08-01,8.369719156,9.565170359,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-09-01,8.490257766,9.650975834,5,6,9.7 2016-10-01,8.465839068,9.690826127,4.9,5.9,9.6 2016-11-01,8.326392051,9.456503492,4.7,5.8,9.4 2016-12-01,8.319908411,9.427152483,4.7,5.7,9.2 2017-01-01,8.297780668,9.409841382,4.7,5.8,9.3 2017-02-01,8.221786143,9.323360626,4.7,5.7,9.1 2017-03-01,8.15481733,9.227624341,4.4,5.4,8.7 2017-04-01,8.10649106,9.141753555,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-05-01,8.103787384,9.107480125,4.4,5.2,8.5 2017-06-01,8.032152653,9.055022206,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-07-01,7.98053166,9.002645945,4.3,5.3,8.5 2017-08-01,8.095002177,9.137969718,4.4,5.3,8.6 2017-09-01,7.915255692,8.922515893,4.2,5.1,8.3 2017-10-01,7.874443849,8.868426958,4.1,5,8 2017-11-01,7.906282715,8.857936298,4.2,5,8 2017-12-01,7.902907748,8.883795762,4.1,5.1,8.1 2018-01-01,7.869435767,8.830835143,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-02-01,7.826954716,8.827148987,4.1,5.1,8.2 2018-03-01,7.836462728,8.805182304,4,4.9,7.9 2018-04-01,7.809465764,8.770997537,3.9,4.7,7.8 2018-05-01,7.754195672,8.684334381,3.8,4.6,7.7 2018-06-01,7.795197904,8.701705703,4,4.9,7.8 2018-07-01,7.682683973,8.559923809,3.9,4.7,7.5 2018-08-01,7.776070274,8.636920061,3.8,4.7,7.4 2018-09-01,7.663888133,8.557718126,3.7,4.6,7.5 2018-10-01,7.650595224,8.572785144,3.8,4.6,7.5 2018-11-01,7.62983503,8.555973089,3.7,4.7,7.6 2018-12-01,7.678283871,8.588474521,3.9,4.8,7.6 2019-01-01,7.796621777,8.781370211,4,4.9,8.1
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