Economic Brief

In the second quarter of 2026, 87 percent of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates.

Several measures show an uptick in trend productivity growth since 2015, though the most recent data are more mixed.

Erik Hurst delivered the 2026 Marvin Goodfriend Memorial Lecture.

Restrictive immigration policies might lower the quality of students studying in the U.S., in addition to lowering the number of students.

By one measure, 2025 was an unusually intense and persistent period of partisan disagreement over trade policy.

The rise in markups in U.S. firms has coincided with a rise in operating costs for these firms.

Recent research underscores the idea that bank attitudes toward lending are a critical barometer for the health of the U.S. macroeconomy.

The facts seem to line up, but the real disagreement seems to involve what to measure and what it means.

Official labor market statistics tend to understate informal and platform-based work, such as ride-hailing and food-delivery services.

The U.S.'s established payment system infrastructure may play a role in how quickly FedNow is adopted.