Economic Brief

Three separate models of trend inflation all signaled incipient inflation in 2020, but they currently all offer different assessments.

The digital nature of stablecoins could make them more attractive to foreigners than the underlying fiat currencies that back them.

An updated model suggests that inflation may stay at elevated levels in the near term.

Alternative data sources seem to replicate trends of official data sources, but accuracy can be challenging at higher frequencies.

The current business cycle episode does not fit neatly into historical templates.

Household income and wealth levels play notable roles in how spousal labor supply responds to a drop in family income.

Buy now, pay later usage has continued to increase but is still a relatively small component of the consumer credit landscape.

The government shutdown showed the value of private sector data sources but also the difficulty in interpreting them and reconciling potential differences with official sources.

Labor force growth has slowed, and aging populations are a significant factor.

Over time, older households have become more likely to age in place and more likely to receive long-term care at home.