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We’re one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks working together with the Board of Governors to support a healthy economy. Our job is to serve the American public — to serve you. And our mission is to foster economic stability and strength.

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Economic Research
We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources.

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We help ensure our financial system is operating safely and effectively, and we help support secure and efficient methods to transfer your funds through our financial system.
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We work with teachers, students and the public to enhance understanding of economics, personal finance and the Federal Reserve.

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Community Development
We work with community partners to identify and address economic challenges and opportunities in low- and moderate-income communities in the Fifth District.

Archives

2020 10

September 2020, No. 20-10

COVID-19 over Time and across States: Predictions from a Statistical Model

Paul Ho, Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

August 2020, No. 20-09

School Quality as a Tool for Attracting People to Rural Areas

Research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools.

Alexander Marré, David A. Price and Anil Rupasingha

July 2020, No. 20-08

Federal Reserve MBS Purchases in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Borys Grochulski

June 2020, No. 20-07

Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?

Felipe F. Schwartzman and Tim Sablik

May 2020, No. 20-06

Public and Private Debt after the Pandemic and Policy Normalization

Thomas A. Lubik and Felipe F. Schwartzman

April 2020, No. 20-05

Loan-Delinquency Projections for COVID-19

Grey Gordon, John Bailey Jones and Jessie Romero

April 2020, No. 20-04

Understanding Discount Window Stigma

Huberto M. Ennis and David A. Price

March 2020, No. 20-03

Who Values Access to College?

Kartik B. Athreya, Felicia Ionescu, Urvi Neelakantan, Jessie Romero and Ivan Vidangos

February 2020, No. 20-02

Presidential Politics and Monetary Policy: Lessons from the 1896 Election

Scott Fulford, Karl Rhodes and Felipe F. Schwartzman

January 2020, No. 20-01

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik
2019 12

December 2019, No. 19-12

Predicting Recessions

Matthew Murphy, Jessie Romero and Roy H. Webb

November 2019, No. 19-11

Linking Municipal Defaults to Inward Migrations

Grey Gordon, Pablo Guerrón-Quintana and David A. Price

October 2019, No. 19-10

A Closer Look at Japan's Rising Consumption Tax

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

September 2019, No. 19-09

Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mullin

August 2019, No. 19-08

Monetary Policy across Space and Time

Laura Liu, Christian Matthes, Katerina Petrova and Jessie Romero

July 2019, No. 19-07

Switching Occupational Categories

Aspen Gorry, Devon Gorry, Tim Sablik and Nicholas Trachter

June 2019, No. 19-06

Are Markets Becoming Less Competitive?

Tim Sablik and Nicholas Trachter

May 2019, No. 19-05

Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees

John Bailey Jones and Aaron Steelman

April 2019, No. 19-04

Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles

Renee Haltom, Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Fabio Verona

March 2019, No. 19-03

The Persistence of Financial Distress

Kartik B. Athreya and Jessie Romero

February 2019, No. 19-02

Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship between Money and Prices

Huberto M. Ennis and Tim Sablik

January 2019, No. 19-01

It's a Wonderful Loan: A Short History of Building and Loan Associations

David A. Price and John R. Walter
2018 12

December 2018, No. 18-12

Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely?

Renee Haltom, Elaine Wissuchek and Alexander L. Wolman

November 2018, No. 18-11

The Differing Effects of the Business Cycle on Small and Large Banks

Borys Grochulski, Daniel Schwam, Aaron Steelman and Yuzhe Zhang

October 2018, No. 18-10

Inequality in and across Cities

Jessie Romero and Felipe F. Schwartzman

September 2018, No. 18-09

How Likely Is a Return to the Zero Lower Bound?

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and David A. Price

August 2018, No. 18-08

The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth

Riccardo Colacito, Bridget Hoffmann, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik

July 2018, No. 18-07

Slowing Growth in Educational Attainment

Urvi Neelakantan and Jessie Romero

June 2018, No. 18-06

Assessing Large Financial Firm Resolvability

Renee Haltom, Arantxa Jarque and John R. Walter

May 2018, No. 18-05

Estimating Aggregate Fiscal Multipliers from Local Data

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, M. Saif Mehkari and David A. Price

April 2018, No. 18-04

The Roots of ‘Bubbly’ Recessions

Helen Fessenden and Toan Phan

March 2018, No. 18-03

Preventing Bank Runs

Renee Haltom and Bruno Sultanum

February 2018, No. 18-02

How Does Family Structure during Childhood Affect College Preparedness and Completion?

Adam Blandin, Christopher Herrington and Aaron Steelman

January 2018, No. 18-01

Unauthorized Immigration: Evaluating the Effects and Policy Responses

Santiago Pinto and Tim Sablik
2017 12

December 2017, No. 17-12

Transitioning from High School to College: Differences across Virginia

Emily E. Cook, Jessie Romero and Sarah Turner

November 2017, No. 17-11

Can We Tax Social Security Benefits More Efficiently?

Helen Fessenden and John Bailey Jones

October 2017, No. 17-10

Should We Worry about Trade Imbalances?

Thomas A. Lubik and Tim Sablik

September 2017, No. 17-09

Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Asymmetric?

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and David A. Price

August 2017, No. 17-08

Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending

Helen Fessenden and Catherine Muething

July 2017, No. 17-07

Responding to Urban Decline

Santiago Pinto and Tim Sablik

June 2017, No. 17-06

Does the Fed Have a Financial Stability Mandate?

Renee Haltom and John A. Weinberg

May 2017, No. 17-05

Medical Spending in Old Age

John Bailey Jones and Jessie Romero

April 2017, No. 17-04

What Two Billion Retail Transactions Reveal about Consumers’ Choice of Payments

David A. Price, Zhu Wang and Alexander L. Wolman

March 2017, No. 17-03

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?

Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

February 2017, No. 17-02

How Couples Approach Portfolio Allocation

Helen Fessenden, Nika Lazaryan and Urvi Neelakantan

January 2017, No. 17-01

Does Redistribution Increase Output?

Kartik B. Athreya, Andrew Owens, Jessie Romero and Felipe F. Schwartzman
2016 12

December 2016, No. 16-12

The Role of Central Bank Lending in the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Huberto M. Ennis and John A. Weinberg

November 2016, No. 16-11

The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik

October 2016, No. 16-10

Assessing the Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Part-Time Employment

Andreas Hornstein and David A. Price

September 2016, No. 16-09

How Did Short-Term Market Rates React to Liftoff?

Renee Haltom and Alexander L. Wolman

August 2016, No. 16-08

Whom Do the Federal Reserve Bank Boards Serve?

Helen Fessenden and Gary Richardson

July 2016, No. 16-07

A "New Normal"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States

Aaron Steelman and John A. Weinberg

June 2016, No. 16-06

Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles

Thomas A. Lubik, Karl Rhodes, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

May 2016, No. 16-05

Do Net Interest Margins and Interest Rates Move Together?

Huberto M. Ennis, Helen Fessenden and John R. Walter

April 2016, No. 16-04

The Role of Option Value in College Decisions

Jessie Romero and Nicholas Trachter

March 2016, No. 16-3

Measuring CEO Compensation

Arantxa Jarque and David A. Price

February 2016, No. 16-02

The Cost of Fed Membership

Helen Fessenden and Gary Richardson

January 2016, No. 16-01

Understanding the New Liquidity Coverage Ratio Requirements

Mark House, Tim Sablik and John R. Walter
2015 12

December 2015, No. 15-12

Did the Durbin Amendment Reduce Merchant Costs? Evidence from Survey Results

Renee Haltom and Zhu Wang

November 2015, No. 15-11

Why Are Women Leaving the Labor Force?

Maria E. Canon, Helen Fessenden and Marianna Kudlyak

October 2015, No. 15-10

Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

September 2015, No. 15-09

Inflation Targeting: Could Bad Luck Explain Persistent One-Sided Misses?

Andreas Hornstein, Joe Johnson and Karl Rhodes

August 2015, No. 15-08

Living Wills for Systemically Important Financial Institutions: Some Expected Benefits and Challenges

Arantxa Jarque and David A. Price

July 2015, No. 15-07

Buyers' Ability and Willingness to Shop Around: An Explanation for Price Dispersion

Karl Rhodes and Nicholas Trachter

June 2015, No. 15-06

Did Banking Reforms of the Early 1990s Fail? Lessons from Comparing Two Banking Crises

Eliana Balla, Helen Fessenden, Edward S. Prescott and John R. Walter

May 2015, No. 15-05

Discount Window Lending: Policy Trade-offs and the 1985 BoNY Computer Failure

Huberto M. Ennis and David A. Price

April 2015, No. 15-04

Nominal GDP: Target or Benchmark?

Robert L. Hetzel

March 2015, No. 15-03

Explaining the Decline in the Number of Banks since the Great Recession

Roisin McCord, Edward S. Prescott and Tim Sablik

February 2015, No. 15-02

How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

January 2015, No. 15-01

Why Does the Fed Study Regional Economics?

Ann Battle Macheras, Santiago Pinto, Jessie Romero and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
2014 12

December 2014, No. 14-12

Understanding Market Failure in the 2007-08 Crisis

Borys Grochulski and Wendy Morrison

November 2014, No. 14-11

Does Enforcement of Employee Noncompete Agreements Impede the Development of Industry Clusters?

David A. Price

October 2014, No. 14-10

Investing over the Life Cycle: One Size Doesn't Fit All

Tim Sablik

September 2014, No. 14-09

Putting the Beveridge Curve Back to Work

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

August 2014, No. 14-08

The Prevalence of Apprenticeships in Germany and the United States

Nika Lazaryan, Urvi Neelakantan and David A. Price

July 2014, No. 14-07

Should the Fed Do Emergency Lending?

Renee Haltom and Jeffrey M. Lacker

June 2014, No. 14-06

Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Fabian Lange and Tim Sablik

May 2014, No. 14-05

Expanding the Scope of Workforce Development

Kartik B. Athreya, Urvi Neelakantan and Jessie Romero

April 2014, No. 14-04

The First Time the Fed Bought GSE Debt

Renee Haltom and Robert Sharp

March 2014, No. 14-03

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys: A User's Guide

David A. Price and Aileen Watson

February 2014, No. 14-02

Reforming Money Market Mutual Funds: A Difficult Assignment

Huberto M. Ennis and Renee Haltom

January 2014, No. 14-01

Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

Christian Matthes and Tim Sablik
2013 12

December 2013, No. 13-12

How Risky Are Young Borrowers?

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

November 2013, No. 13-11

Assessing the Risks of Mortgage REITs

Sabrina R. Pellerin, David A. Price, Steven Sabol and John R. Walter

October 2013, No. 13-10

Welfare Analysis of Debit Card Interchange Fee Regulation

Tim Sablik and Zhu Wang

September 2013, No. 13-09

Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy?

Renee Haltom and Thomas A. Lubik

August 2013, No. 13-08

Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement?

Andreas Hornstein and Karl Rhodes

July 2013, No. 13-07

Land of Opportunity? Economic Mobility in the United States

Minorities are less likely to climb the economic ladder than whites. Access to high-quality early childhood education plays an important role.

Kartik B. Athreya and Jessie Romero

June 2013, No. 13-06

Implications of Risks and Rewards in College Decisions

Kartik B. Athreya and David A. Price

May 2013, No. 13-05

Does Money Still Matter for Monetary Policy?

Renee Haltom

April 2013, No. 13-04

Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search

Marianna Kudlyak and Jessie Romero

March 2013, No. 13-03

Fed Credit Policy during the Great Depression

Tim Sablik

February 2013, No. 13-02

Why Do Debit Card Networks Charge Percentage Fees?

David A. Price and Zhu Wang

January 2013, No. 13-01

All Mortgages Are Not Created Equal

Karl Rhodes and Breck Robinson
2012 12

December 2012, No. 12-12

A Citizen's Guide to Unconventional Monetary Policy

Renee Haltom and Alexander L. Wolman

November 2012, No. 12-11

Are Depression-Era Employment Swings Overstated?

Jonathon Lecznar, Jessie Romero and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

October 2012, No. 12-10

Explaining an Industry Cluster: The Case of U.S. Car Makers from 1895-1969

David A. Price and Zhu Wang

September 2012, No. 12-09

Can Orderly Liquidation Solve the Problems of Bailouts and Bankruptcies?

Betty Joyce Nash, Sabrina R. Pellerin and John R. Walter

August 2012, No. 12-08

TARGET2: Symptom, Not Cause, of Eurozone Woes

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

July 2012, No. 12-07

Unsustainable Fiscal Policy: Implications for Monetary Policy

Renee Haltom and John A. Weinberg

June 2012, No. 12-06

The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and Recovery

Marianna Kudlyak and David A. Price

May 2012, No. 12-05

Microenterprise and the Small-Dollar Loan Market

Tammie Hoy, Jessie Romero and Kimberly Zeuli

April 2012, No. 12-04

The Spice of Life: Allowing for Heterogeneity in Macro Models

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

March 2012, No. 12-03

Loan Loss Reserve Accounting and Bank Behavior

Eliana Balla, Morgan J. Rose and Jessie Romero

February 2012, No. 12-02

Experimenting with Contingent Capital Triggers

Edward S. Prescott and David A. Price

January 2012, No. 12-01

Where Are Households in the Deleveraging Cycle?

R. Andrew Bauer and Betty Joyce Nash
2011 12

December 2011, No. 11-12

The Federal Reserve's "Dual Mandate": The Evolution of an Idea

Aaron Steelman

November 2011, No. 11-11

Recoveries From Recessions Associated With Banking Crises: How Does This One Compare?

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, David A. Price and Jonathan Tompkins

October 2011, No. 11-10

Fifth District Manufacturing and the Recession: An Analysis of Subsector Performance

Robert Schnorbus and Judy Cox

September 2011, No. 11-09

Potential Causes and Implications of the Rise in Long-Term Unemployment

Andreas Hornstein, Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

August 2011, No. 11-08

Is Stimulative Fiscal Policy More Effective at the Zero Lower Bound?

Renee Haltom and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

July 2011, No. 11-07

Monetary Policy with Unknown Natural Rates

Thomas A. Lubik and Jessie Romero

June 2011, No. 11-06

Basel III and the Continuing Evolution of Bank Capital Regulation

Huberto M. Ennis and David A. Price

May 2011, No. 11-05

The Role of Interchange Fees on Debit and Credit Card Transactions in the Payments System

Tim Mead, Renee Haltom and Margaretta Blackwell

April 2011, No. 11-04

Identifying Systemically Important Financial Institutions

David A. Price and John R. Walter

March 2011, No. 11-03

The Earned Income Tax Credit: Recipients, Labor Force Participation, and Credit Constraints

Kartik B. Athreya and Aaron Steelman

February 2011, No. 11-02

Small Business Lending During the Recession

Betty Joyce Nash and Kimberly Zeuli

January 2011, No. 11-01

How Might the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases Lower Long-Term Interest Rates?

Renee Haltom and Juan Carlos Hatchondo
2010 12

December 2010, No. 10-12

The Service Sector and the "Great Recession"

Robert Schnorbus and Aileen Watson

November 2010, No. 10-11

What Trends Exist in Regional Housing Market Data?

Renee Haltom and Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

October 2010, No. 10-10

The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: The Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)

Marianna Kudlyak, David A. Price and Juan M. Sanchez

September 2010, No. 10-09

The Effects of Local Demographic Characteristics and State-Level Legislation on Foreclosure Rates

Ross Lawrence and Brent C Smith

August 2010, No. 10-08

When Did the Recession End?

Renee Haltom

July 2010, No. 10-07

How Useful Are Consumer Surveys as Macroeconomic Indicators?

Roy H. Webb

June 2010, No. 10-06

Now How Large Is the Safety Net?

Jeffrey M. Lacker and John A. Weinberg

May 2010, No. 10-05

Is There Stigma Associated with Discount Window Borrowing?

Renee Haltom and Huberto M. Ennis

April 2010, No. 10-04

Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions

Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly and Stephen Slivinski

March 2010, No. 10-03

Excess Reserves and the New Challenges for Monetary Policy

Huberto M. Ennis and Alexander L. Wolman

February 2010, No. 10-02

Is a New Asset Bubble Emerging in Certain Markets?

Renee Haltom, Brian Gaines and Juan Carlos Hatchondo

January 2010, No. 10-01

Is the Output Gap a Faulty Gauge for Monetary Policy?

Thomas A. Lubik and Stephen Slivinski
2009 12

December 2009, No. 09-12

The Effect of Interest on Reserves on Monetary Policy

John R. Walter and Renee Haltom

November 2009, No. 09-11

Rolling Back the Financial Safety Net

Robert L. Hetzel and Stephen Slivinski

October 2009, No. 09-10

The Case for Direct Methods to Address CO2 Emissions and Other Negative Environmental Externalities

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

September 2009, No. 09-09

Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures

Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak and Stephen Slivinski

August 2009, No. 09-08

Recent Fiscal Policy and the Manipulation of Aggregate Economic Activity

Kartik B. Athreya and Renee Haltom

July 2009, No. 09-07

Systemic Risk Regulation and the "Too Big to Fail" Problem

Borys Grochulski and Stephen Slivinski

June 2009, No. 09-06

The Growth of Paperless Money: Retail Payments in the United States Continue to Evolve

T. Stuart Desch and Kiran Krishnamurthy

May 2009, No. 09-05

The Costs and Benefits of Bank Supervisory Disclosure

Edward S. Prescott and Stephen Slivinski

April 2009, No. 09-04

What We Do and Don't Know about Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Renee Haltom

March 2009, No. 09-03

Rationalizing Financial Literacy Policy

Kartik B. Athreya and Anne Stiwell

February 2009, No. 09-02

Residential Externalities

Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Kevin A. Bryan

January 2009, No. 09-01

The Size and Structure of Exports in the Fifth District Economy

Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
2008 3

December 2008, No. 08-03

Turmoil in the Student Loan Market

John R. Walter and Samuel E. Henly

November 2008, No. 08-02

What Income Inequality Measures Can (and Cannot) Tell Us

Leonardo Martinez and Stephen Slivinski

October 2008, No. 08-01

Inflation Expectations: Their Sources and Effects

Yash P. Mehra and Devin Reilly

Contact Us

Karl Rhodes (804) 697-8144