Archives
-
2023
3
January 2023, No. 23-03
These surveys may not be highly accurate, but they shed light on what consumers are thinking about inflation.
January 2023, No. 23-02Among the topics discussed were income growth volatility, AI's impact on productivity and how housing price changes affect young businesses.
January 2023, No. 23-01Seemingly small international trade linkages can lead to substantial spillovers across countries, helping explain global comovement in GDP growth and inflation across countries.
-
2022
51
December 2022, No. 22-51
A new paper finds evidence of causal effects of historical redlining on present-day exposure to environmental and climate risks in six large U.S. cities.
December 2022, No. 22-50Many students use two-year colleges to determine whether they should go on to a four-year college.
December 2022, No. 22-49This gap seemingly exists even after controlling for education.
December 2022, No. 22-48Monetary policy, marriage, college admissions, and discrimination and socioeconomic outcomes were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.
November 2022, No. 22-47Examining commuting behavior helps show how connected counties are in the Fifth Federal Reserve District.
November 2022, No. 22-46The lockdowns resulting from COVID-19 provide an opportunity to examine what factors affect the strength of supply chains.
November 2022, No. 22-45For some underperforming employees, employers might prefer using suspension rather than outright termination.
November 2022, No. 22-44Pandemic-era unemployment insurance affected recoveries of low-wage job markets and high-wage job markets differently.
October 2022, No. 22-43Techniques at the frontiers of econometrics were addressed by economists during a recent research conference.
October 2022, No. 22-42Tariffs, property rights and producing inputs versus buying them: These were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.
October 2022, No. 22-41The newer a product is, the more likely its price will change and the larger the price change will likely be.
October 2022, No. 22-40Hard (or large) sovereign defaults have been associated with larger negative economic responses than soft defaults.
September 2022, No. 22-39This theory may be obscure, even to economists, but it can have quite an impact on inflation.
September 2022, No. 22-38The relationship between the producer price index and consumer price indexes has not always been clear.
September 2022, No. 22-37One can argue whether the FOMC's response to inflation has been strong enough, but financial markets and surveys suggest that the Fed retains credibility for low inflation in the long run.
September 2022, No. 22-36Data suggest that labor market tightness has meant an increased number of open jobs per unemployed worker and heightened employer recruiting effort per vacancy.
August 2022, No. 22-35During bubbles, an innovation raises a company's stock price by more than it would otherwise, and competing company stock prices don't suffer as much.
August 2022, No. 22-34How might a CBDC alter the banking system? How does credit easing affect bank runs? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.
August 2022, No. 22-33A new real-time measure of credit market sentiment appears to outperform credit conditions indicators currently used in the literature.
August 2022, No. 22-32Some believe rises in financial aid such as student loans cause corresponding rises in tuition. But reality seems much more nuanced.
August 2022, No. 22-31Persistence in inflation depends on the time period studied.
August 2022, No. 22-30The yield curve is often used to gauge potential recessions. Can its predictive value be improved?
August 2022, No. 22-29How many more borrowers working in public services recently became eligible for student loan forgiveness in the Fifth District?
July 2022, No. 22-28As legal gambling options proliferate, commercial casino expansion is less likely to induce economic growth.
July 2022, No. 22-27How does immigration policy impact economic growth? Do firms that hire more skilled immigrants perform better? These and other questions were addressed during a recent Richmond Fed conference.
July 2022, No. 22-26Properly regulating stablecoins could achieve the same objectives as issuing a central bank digital currency.
July 2022, No. 22-25Many assume that inflation affects all households the same. But that doesn't appear to be true.
July 2022, No. 22-24When confidence in Terra's currencies was shaken, it created a freefall that couldn't be stopped.
June 2022, No. 22-23In the OTC market for credit default swaps, some investors are more central within the trading network than others.
June 2022, No. 22-22Diffusion indexes can help summarize survey responses, but they have some limitations.
June 2022, No. 22-21Perhaps history can be a guide on whether central banks should issue digital currencies.
June 2022, No. 22-20Even exploring a CBDC without ultimately issuing one can provide significant benefits.
June 2022, No. 22-19Among the topics covered at the Marvin Goodfriend conference were Fed bond facilities' impact on corporate credit risk and how trade leads to a global Phillips curve.
May 2022, No. 22-18When immigration is restricted in rural areas, native workers don't seem to fill the jobs left empty.
May 2022, No. 22-17Commonly used summary statistics for measuring the Black-White wealth gap have significant limitations. Here's a measure to help address these limitations.
May 2022, No. 22-16Unlike in other recessions, women's labor force participation was impacted more than men's. What impact did child care have?
April 2022, No. 22-15Based on different sets of reasonable assumptions, we analyze several different scenarios for the future of this critical policy-relevant lever.
April 2022, No. 22-14Evidence highlights the nuanced ways in which participants in the financial markets may be strategically adapting to climate change.
April 2022, No. 22-13How did unemployment insurance expansion affect recovery from the pandemic-induced recession? What are the effects of federal minimum wage hikes? A recent research conference addressed these questions and more.
April 2022, No. 22-12The unemployment rate is close to pre-pandemic lows, and job openings are at record highs. Yet, participation and employment rates are still below pre-pandemic levels.
March 2022, No. 22-11Consumers who would benefit from lower tariffs on a good tend to matter more when setting trade policy than producers who want higher tariffs.
March 2022, No. 22-10The recent high inflation had been due to price changes in a small group of expenditures, but that changed a few months ago.
March 2022, No. 22-09The recent removal of several Russian banks from SWIFT has sparked questions about unintended consequences.
March 2022, No. 22-08Many firms don't follow inflation closely for setting prices, but the recent high inflation may have some firms taking a closer look.
February 2022, No. 22-07Remote work options seem to go hand in hand with greater geographic reach in recruitment efforts for some firms.
February 2022, No. 22-06How the Standing Repo Facility interacts with resolution planning at large banking corporations will depend in part on guidance provided by regulators.
February 2022, No. 22-05After regulations were implemented, dealer capital commitment, trade frequency and size decreased, while dealer bid-ask spread increased.
February 2022, No. 22-04Studies suggest that short-term effects of such spending are small and long-term effects depend on an economy's sensitivity to such investment.
January 2022, No. 22-03News about productivity shocks — even when these shocks have not even happened yet — seems to be a powerful additional source of economic fluctuations.
January 2022, No. 22-02Is money essential? How do self-interested parties bargain to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes? These were among questions addressed at a recent research conference.
January 2022, No. 22-01Workers are not fully compensated for their marginal contributions to their employers' revenues, and employers' market power has been increasing since the early 2000s.
-
2021
44
December 2021, No. 21-43
The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo facility has seen significant activity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
December 2021, No. 21-42Do payday loan regulations help or harm consumer welfare? How many firms close due to financial market inefficiencies? These were among questions addressed at a recent research workshop.
December 2021, No. 21-41This survey of climate finance research literature highlights key findings and their policy implications.
December 2021, No. 21-40The rebound in employment from pandemic lows varied considerably across regions and sectors.
November 2021, No. 21-39Government transfers may allow households to pull back from work to take care of loved ones or engage in other valued activities.
November 2021, No. 21-38A decreasing-rate mortgage wouldn't increase its interest rate, but would decline when rates dropped, potentially saving significant refinance costs.
November 2021, No. 21-37Less-educated White men who are incarcerated at least once have a higher survival probability than those who are never incarcerated.
October 2021, No. 21-36The Beveridge curve — which measures the inverse relationship between the unemployment and vacancy rates — has shifted significantly outward and is much steeper than in pre-COVID times.
October 2021, No. 21-35Increasing labor competition may drive wages down, but natives and immigrants specializing in working for different firms helps offset this effect.
October 2021, No. 21-34Firms with high productivity place more establishments in dense locations and fewer establishments in low density locations.
October 2021, No. 21-33Since 1980, survey forecasts have been modestly and consistently higher on average than the forecasts derived from a signal extraction model.
September 2021, No. 21-32Prepping for medical expenses is more important for singles, while leaving bequests is more important for couples.
September 2021, No. 21-31The Fed's relatively new repo facilities may create greater price certainty, but the Fed's intervention may mute valuable market signals regarding economic efficiency and stability.
September 2021, No. 21-30The annualized PCE inflation rate over the period March through July is 6.5 percent, the highest five-month rate since November 1981.
September 2021, No. 21-29bPart two of our series examines studies on racial disparities in policing, crime reporting and the effectiveness of training programs.
September 2021, No. 21-29aPart one of our two-part Economic Brief examines the impact of crime on communities, the relationship between crime and policing, and how policing affects deterrence.
September 2021, No. 21-28Recent Richmond Fed surveys shed light on how employers attempt to fill jobs.
August 2021, No. 21-27Some argue that damages from climate change aren't large enough to affect the financial system, but what about amplification effects?
August 2021, No. 21-26Unemployment insurance seems to help smooth consumer spending after a job loss, but there's disagreement on how much it discourages people from finding new jobs.
August 2021, No. 21-25Household consumption shocks have accounted for close to 40 percent of pre-pandemic business cycle fluctuations.
August 2021, No. 21-24Contrary to the traditional view, adverse events for a single firm can affect the economy as a whole, if the firm is large enough.
July 2021, No. 21-23A recent Richmond Fed conference covered housing, Social Security claiming, savings and labor supply related to older households.
July 2021, No. 21-22The new language — which has been in each FOMC statement since September — represents a significant shift in the committee's thinking.
June 2021, No. 21-21The U.S. is considered a leader in payment services, yet it has fallen behind countries like China and Kenya in mobile payment innovation.
June 2021, No. 21-20People who pay student loans back using income-driven repayment plans are less likely to default than those who use standard repayment plans.
June 2021, No. 21-19Without a recent directly comparable episode, economic forecasters modified their models or sought additional information in data to create forecasts during the pandemic.
June 2021, No. 21-18Targeted interventions toward COVID-19, rather than universal stay-at-home orders, might have resulted in less economic damage and fewer deaths, according to one researcher.
May 2021, No. 21-17Facebook and Amazon are examining creating digital currencies, like Alibaba has. What drives platforms to develop these currencies, and should central banks be worried?
May 2021, No. 21-16When rolling out vaccines to combat a pandemic, focusing first on those with intermediate vulnerability provides the greatest returns to society.
May 2021, No. 21-15Recent legislation has again highlighted the U.S. welfare system. This EB summarizes the welfare system and a "work bias" embedded in many U.S. welfare programs.
May 2021, No. 21-14Does gender diversity improve team performance? How should vaccines be allocated to combat a pandemic? How do employers affect how immigration impacts native workers? These were among the questions discussed by researchers during a recent virtual research workshop.
April 2021, No. 21-13The recent stock market gyrations of GameStop and AMC Entertainment illustrate that companies' fates can sometimes hinge on self-fulfilling beliefs of stock buyers.
April 2021, No. 21-12The "modern monetary theory" tenet that governments can continuously print money to fund deficits ignores the fact that governments ultimately must satisfy creditors.
April 2021, No. 21-11A new theory of economic development integrates two existing paradigms to show that reducing distortions in "big push" regions could unleash massive growth.
March 2021, No. 21-10The U.S. might benefit from replacing physical cash with central bank digital currency, but first the Fed must resolve several policy and implementation issues.
March 2021, No. 21-09Newly available data show that larger and less liquid banks use the discount window more actively and that holdings of bank reserves are negatively correlated with discount window borrowing. Access to the discount window affects bank portfolio decisions, in particular holdings of reserves, in subtle ways.
March 2021, No. 21-08This brief discusses the main contributions that college-educated immigrants make to U.S. productivity growth, such as providing scarce skills that supplement and complement skills of native workers, contributing disproportionately to innovation and promoting job creation in the United States by foreign-based multinational corporations.
March 2021, No. 21-07Research finds that first-time incarceration can decrease men's lifetime earnings as well as increase the number of years spent unemployed or out of the labor force.
February 2021, No. 21-06High labor market churn in the COVID-19 recession may exacerbate barriers to sustained wage growth for workers in high-turnover service sector jobs.
February 2021, No. 21-05Lending by small and large domestic banks, and foreign-related banks evolved in distinctly different ways during the first several months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
February 2021, No. 21-04Conducting a statistical analysis of U.S. economic data, economists from the Richmond Fed and the University of Bern find no evidence of hysteresis, the idea that seemingly temporary economic shocks can have permanent effects.
January 2021, No. 21-03Households' expectations often differ from formal economic forecasts. The researchers quantify these differences and explain them by developing a "theory of time-varying pessimism." Embedding their new theory into a quantitative economic model, they find that fluctuations in pessimism have significant effects on macroeconomic measures, most notably the unemployment rate.
January 2021, No. 21-02By quantifying climate change's effects and assessing potential mitigation and adaptation techniques, economists contribute valuable perspectives to conversations about the planet's future. This brief summarizes presentations from the Richmond Fed's November 2020 conference on climate change economics.
January 2021, No. 21-01In rapidly evolving crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, indexes of financial conditions based on high-frequency data give policymakers more timely information than better-known monthly or quarterly indicators.
-
2020
13
December 2020, No. 20-13November 2020, No. 20-12October 2020, No. 20-11
Economists at the Richmond Fed, the University of Virginia, UC Irvine, and Purdue analyze how monetary policy affects lending relationships for small businesses and vice versa.
September 2020, No. 20-10August 2020, No. 20-09Research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools.
July 2020, No. 20-08June 2020, No. 20-07May 2020, No. 20-06April 2020, No. 20-05April 2020, No. 20-04March 2020, No. 20-03February 2020, No. 20-02January 2020, No. 20-01 -
2019
12
December 2019, No. 19-12November 2019, No. 19-11October 2019, No. 19-10September 2019, No. 19-09August 2019, No. 19-08July 2019, No. 19-07June 2019, No. 19-06May 2019, No. 19-05April 2019, No. 19-04March 2019, No. 19-03February 2019, No. 19-02January 2019, No. 19-01
-
2018
12
December 2018, No. 18-12November 2018, No. 18-11October 2018, No. 18-10September 2018, No. 18-09August 2018, No. 18-08July 2018, No. 18-07June 2018, No. 18-06May 2018, No. 18-05April 2018, No. 18-04March 2018, No. 18-03February 2018, No. 18-02January 2018, No. 18-01
Economic Brief Archives
The Richmond Fed has published Economic Brief since 2008. Visit the Federal Reserve System's FRASER to view the complete collection.