Macro Minute

When tracking supply stress in semiconductors, bottlenecks can extend beyond national borders and make supply chain risk worse than any individual country’s data might imply.

Fed policymakers tend to project that inflation will return to target within three years, regardless of whether inflation is running higher or lower than target.

Getting hired is slightly harder compared to other months since 2000, while the layoff rate is close to the lowest on record.

Those who have been out of work for a year or more are experiencing an even more challenging labor market than usual.

The last two FOMC statements and meeting minutes have been the shortest in more than 15 years.

Data on software investment suggest that AI adoption may represent a broad-based shift in how businesses invest.

While some good news about inflation has arrived, more may be needed to allay business and consumer anxiety.

Recent data suggest that retail businesses and U.S. consumer spending have kicked off summer in full stride, assuaging concerns of a near-term consumer pullback.

The relationship between the output gap and the corporate profit share of GDI may shed light on how the economy is faring.

AI and data center investment appears to be positively influencing inflation, but that could change as these investments materialize into productivity gains.