R-Star

Podcast

A Conversation with the Richmond Fed's New Research Director

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 20, 2024

For our 150th episode, Anna Kovner reviews her career path to becoming the research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and reflects on the work of the Bank's Research department. Kovner also offers her views on various topics — including the banking turmoil of 2023, the Fed's "lender of last resort" role, current risks to the financial system, and the "neutral rate" of interest — as well as the current state of the national economy.

Article

Close up of compass with map and lighthouse overlay to demonstrate charting course.

Examining the Differences in r* Estimates

Economic Brief

November 2024, No. 24-36

A careful comparison of the approaches allows policymakers to discern possible strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Thomas A. Lubik and Paul Ho

Podcast

What Yesterday's Economy Tells Us About Today

Speaking of the Economy

Sept. 25, 2024

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back on recent economic trends and how they have shaped the current state of the national economy.

Article

Abstract illustration of financial data being shown with a bar chart.

Will Interest Rates Remain Elevated Even as Monetary Policy Normalizes?

Economic Brief

August 2024, No. 24-28

Several factors may have been permanently altered since the onset of the pandemic.

Felipe F. Schwartzman

Speech

A woman buying her son new clothes in a store. She’s at the checkout, paying contactless with her smartphone.

Why Were Forecasts Off?

June 28, 2024

President Tom Barkin explores why it has been particularly challenging to predict the path of the economy over the last few years.

Tom Barkin
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Article

Illustration of a diverse array of silhouettes in overlaid on a city landscape.

How Do Demographics Influence r*?

Economic Brief

June 2024, No. 24-18

Demographic factors can simultaneously work in opposite directions when it comes to r*.

Paul Ho

Article

When Economists Navigate by the Stars

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2024

Taking into account the uncertainty of the state of the world is the hallmark of good policymaking in economics. Moreover, r* and other stars are just one of many inputs in this process.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Purple and blue abstract financial graph with layered trend lines and columns.

Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-10

The pattern of r* paths for other countries seem more alike to each other than they are to the U.S.

Thomas A. Lubik, Brennan Merone and Nathan Robino

Podcast

Charting the Path of Interest Rates

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 10, 2024

Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes discuss how economists wrestle with measuring the natural rate of interest or r-star, why this measure is important for monetary policymakers, and how their model has evolved to better chart the path of interest rates. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Matthes is a professor of economics at Indiana University.

Article

The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model

Economic Brief

September 2023, No. 23-32

The updates result in a less volatile r* series that more closely reflects our prior belief as to where r* likely is.

Thomas A. Lubik and Christian Matthes

Blog Post

How Pump Prices Play With Monetary Policy

Macro Minute

October 4, 2022

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article