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Staff Economists

Toan Phan

headshot of Toan Phan

My research interests include macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. Recent papers cover the following topics: (i) understanding the role of asset price bubbles in financial crises, (ii) understanding sovereign debt crises, and (iii) understanding how the interaction of debt and bubbles may affect optimal monetary and macroprudential policies. I am also interested in environmental, growth and development economics.

Professional Experience

Toan Phan joined the Research Department as an economist in July 2017. Prior to working at the Richmond Fed, Phan was an assistant professor in economics at the University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill.


Ph.D., Northwestern University, 2012
M.A., Northwestern University, 2007
B.A., Bucknell University, 2006

Curriculum vitae
Personal website

"Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances" (with Daisuke Ikeda). American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (forthcoming).

"Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles" (with Julien Bengui). Journal of Economic Theory 117 (September 2018): 280-314.

"Nominal Sovereign Debt.International Economic Review 58 (November 2017): 1303-1316.

"A Model of Sovereign Debt with Private information.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 83 (October 2017): 1-17.

"Bubbles, Wage Rigidity, and Persistent Slumps" (with Andrew Hanson). Economic Letters 151 (February 2017): 66-70.

"Sovereign Debt Signals.Journal of International Economics​ 104 (January 2017): 157-165.

"Information, Insurance and the Sustainability of Sovereign Debt.Review of Economic Dynamics 22 (October 2016): 93-108.

"Toxic Asset Bubbles" (with Daisuke Ikeda). Economic Theory 61, no. 2 (February 2016): 241-271.

"Roots of the Derivative of the Riemann-Zeta Function and of Characteristic Polynomials" (with Eduardo Dueñez, et al). Nonlinearity 23, no. 10 (October 2010): 2599-2622.

"Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles" (with Andrew Graczyk).

"Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States" (with Ricardo Colacito and Bridget Hoffman). Download Slides. VoxEU summary article.

"Bubbly Recessions" (with Sid Biswas and Andrew Hanson). Download Slides.

August 2018, No. 18-08

The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth

Toan Phan, Bridget Hoffmann, Riccardo Colacito and Tim Sablik

April 2018, No. 18-04

The Roots of ‘Bubbly’ Recessions

Toan Phan and Helen Fessenden

April 2018, No. 18-11

Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles

Toan Phan and Julien Bengui

April 2018, No. 18-10

Regressive Welfare Effects of Housing Bubbles

Toan Phan and Andrew Graczyk

March 2018, No. 18-09

Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

Toan Phan, Bridget Hoffmann and Riccardo Colacito

March 2018, No. 18-07

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

Toan Phan and Daisuke Ikeda

February 2018, No. 18-05

Bubbly Recessions

Toan Phan, Andrew Hanson and Siddhartha Biswas

February 2018, No. 18-03

The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico

Toan Phan, Ryan Leary and Anusha Chari

Contact Us

Toan Phan
(804) 697-8212