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Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-17

Firms may source inputs from a variety of suppliers to help avoid weather disrupting their supply chains.

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Simon Farbman, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

April 2025, No. 25-16

Announcements regarding AI can have significant impact on the economy, even if the actual technology isn't enacted for a while.

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

April 2025, No. 25-15

The recent tariff announcement implies that the average effective tariff rate would rise further compared to our previous analysis.

April 2025, No. 25-14

For estimating underlying inflation, it is important to control for seasonality in volatility.

April 2025, No. 25-13

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

April 2025, No. 25-12

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

March 2025, No. 25-11

Months supply does better at predicting house price growth than many other relevant variables, such as the unemployment rate and the 10-year Treasury yield.

March 2025, No. 25-10

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.

March 2025, No. 25-09

Several economic indicators appear to respond notably to shocks in credit sentiment.

Danilo Leiva-León, Thomas A. Lubik, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Nathan Robino, Horacio Sapriza, Francisco Vazquez-Grande and Egon Zakrajšek

February 2025, No. 25-08

The contributions of various sectors to aggregate productivity growth have shifted significantly since World War II.

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