Economic Brief

Literature suggests much of the decline may be a response to the changing needs of both households and firms.

A new measure suggests reserve balances are more distributed than originally thought.

Firms may source inputs from a variety of suppliers to help avoid weather disrupting their supply chains.

Announcements regarding AI can have significant impact on the economy, even if the actual technology isn't enacted for a while.

The recent tariff announcement implies that the average effective tariff rate would rise further compared to our previous analysis.

For estimating underlying inflation, it is important to control for seasonality in volatility.

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

Months supply does better at predicting house price growth than many other relevant variables, such as the unemployment rate and the 10-year Treasury yield.

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.