Macro Minute

The government shutdown interrupted the collection of price data in October, but what would "actual" conditions have looked like in October if data were available?

Something fishy about job openings? As of August, there were 7.2 million job openings, compared to the five-year pre-pandemic average of 6.4 million. This post will explore the V/U ratio and the labor market.

With a government shutdown and significant delays in getting timely official data, what is the difference between the Richmond Fed price index and the PCE price index?

How have asymmetric unemployment rate movements unfolded during previous recessions?

Will today's AI-related investment turn out to be a repeat of the 1990s telecom boom and bust?

Are some months noisier than others when estimating payroll employment growth?

Why might consumer demand be slowing? This post explores PCE spending, including in the nonprofit sector.

Were declining response rates to the Current Employment Statistics survey responsible for July's outsized data revision?

This week's post explores some features of the latest PCE report for evidence that this payback effect has contributed to today's slow spending rates.

As the least experienced and longest unemployed workers face rising challenges finding jobs, there are signs of "dumbbell-shaped" danger for the labor market.