Skip to Main Content

Macro Minute

December 6, 2022

For the month of December, Macro Minute will be on hiatus. We'll resume our normal programming in January 2023.

November 22, 2022

This year, inflation will probably feature in some of conversations over Thanksgiving dinner. To prepare you for this onslaught, this post will take stock of how inflation has gobbled up part of the holiday budget.

November 15, 2022

How related are wages and prices, and does the current environment mean such a relationship has changed?

November 8, 2022

In recent weeks, government debt and foreign exchange markets in the U.K. were roiled by a remarkable amount of volatility.

October 18, 2022

As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.

October 11, 2022

A key concern about the Biden administration's debt forgiveness program is its inflationary impact. This post provides a back-of-the-envelope calculation of this impact, based on a specific view of the federal budget and how it interacts with monetary and fiscal policies.

Aubrey George and Thomas A. Lubik

October 4, 2022

Declining gasoline prices have contributed to an easing of inflation and lower inflation expectations, working in tandem with the FOMC's efforts to bring price levels down. But how hard is monetary policy tapping on the brakes of the economy?

September 27, 2022

For homebuyers who are still in the market despite higher prices and borrowing rates, their options may be limited as homebuilders focus on clearing backlogs rather than starting new construction.

August 23, 2022

Inflation has hit most other advanced economies in addition to the United States. What can we learn from their experiences?

August 16, 2022

Examining how nominal income and spending behaved during the months surrounding past peaks in inflation may yield insights into the current bout of high inflation.

August 9, 2022

The elevated number of job openings in recent months have been a very stark signal of labor market tightness. But some signs may be pointing to that tightness starting to ease.

August 2, 2022

While several indicators have pointed to a recent slowdown in economic activity, one that uses unemployment rates to gauge recession probabilities may offer new insights.

July 12, 2022

While some measures of inflation show modest signs of improvement, trimmed mean inflation tells another story.

July 5, 2022

Recent JOLTS data on job openings, hires and separations may shed some light on establishment size and the challenges of snagging new employees.

June 28, 2022

The impact of the recent rise in prices on households and how people perceive future price increases may vary according to income, according to recent research.

Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun

May 31, 2022

For decades, economists have been looking for leading indicators that can signal the future direction of the overall economy. In today's post, we look at a few of these indicators and what they suggest for growth going forward.

May 24, 2022

Since last summer, rising home prices have threatened to push up rent prices, adding pressure to overall inflation. How have actual rents fared and what do the most recent numbers imply for rent inflation going forward?

May 17, 2022

Recent reports revealed strong growth in hiring and wages for April. But is that growth enough to keep up with inflation?

May 10, 2022

The recent fall in real GDP has sparked considerable concern, but an alternative measure of provides hope that the economy didn't fare as poorly as the GDP data suggest.

April 12, 2022

A recent analysis shows significantly higher inflation in rural areas versus urban areas, using data from nine broad census divisions. But does this difference in price levels hold true drilling down to the state level?

Aubrey George and John O'Trakoun

April 5, 2022

Purchases of durable goods have been moderating after experiencing a surge during the pandemic. But is this due to falling demand or constrained supplies?

March 29, 2022

While the unemployment rate has yet to fall to its pre-pandemic level, another measure of labor market tightness has reached levels not seen since the 1970s — job openings per unemployed person.

March 22, 2022

Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.

February 22, 2022

Despite improvements in the unemployment rate and labor force participation, one measure indicates continued hiring challenges in the private sector: the hires-per-job opening ratio.

February 15, 2022

While consumers haven't been the best forecasters of the future rate of inflation, their expectations may have additional weight now because more people are paying attention to price levels.

February 8, 2022

There are a lot more people who say they aren't working due to COVID-19, according to a recent survey. However, other data indicates that most of those workers remain in the labor force.

Conner Mulloy and John O'Trakoun

February 1, 2022

The New York Fed recently combined a variety of indicators into a single measure of global supply chain pressure. Plotting this index against the Richmond Fed's "prices paid" measurements from its business activity surveys can provide a window into the effects of supply disruptions on the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

January 11, 2022

While nonfarm payrolls increased only modestly in December, both monthly and high-frequency data on job openings bode well for upcoming employment reports.

January 4, 2022

A model takes a fresh look at the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices and can be used to make a simple forecast of inflation for 2022.

Phone Icon Contact Us

Research Department (804) 697-8000