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Macro Minute

December 19, 2023

Inflation is still above the Fed's target, but the recent deviations from target have been close to what one would expect when the Fed has effectively stabilized inflation around its target.

November 28, 2023

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 61.3 in November versus 63.8 in October, seemingly due to high price concerns.

November 14, 2023

This post provides a look at where retail inventory-to-sales ratios may hint at discounts for price-conscious consumers this holiday season.

November 7, 2023

Is it possible durable goods spending will settle above the pre-pandemic trend line? If so, what might this consumption shift mean for the aggregate economy?

October 17, 2023

How does the latest monthly data affect progress versus the Fed's long-run 2 percent average inflation target?

October 10, 2023

Real disposable personal income growth has been negative for the past three months following 11 consecutive months of gains. This week's post dives into the drivers of this decline.

October 3, 2023

In this week's post, we explore alternative series that might have been used to measure the strength of consumer demand in the absence of official measures of personal consumption expenditure (PCE).

September 26, 2023

In this week's post, we look at the impact of unions on wage gains for workers and what trends suggest for the road ahead.

September 5, 2023

Out of the many components that make up the PPI, one particularly relevant item from the perspective of shoppers may be the PPI's trade indexes.

August 29, 2023

In three of the last four months, inflation has been within the prediction interval based on data from the pre-pandemic era, when inflation was stable near the Fed's 2 percent target.

August 15, 2023

In our dynamic economy, new businesses are opened, and older businesses shut down continually over time. How does the BLS account for this churn when reporting jobs growth?

August 8, 2023

As the economy continues to normalize from the shock of the pandemic, what changes have we seen in terms of mothers' labor force participation?

August 1, 2023

How do the Fed's interest rate hikes affect bank lending standards? One way to find out is to directly ask banks whether they've tightened lending standards to borrowers.

July 11, 2023

While the level of inflation-adjusted household spending remains high, recent monthly growth rates are no longer as buoyant as before.

June 27, 2023

Household savings have been a tailwind to spending and inflation, but is that tailwind finally dissipating?

June 20, 2023

In this week's post, we look at the data to see which businesses are driving this picture of lean inventories relative to sales.

May 30, 2023

April's advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Why do some economists and economy-watchers emphasize these core retail sales?

May 23, 2023

With negotiations still underway, some unconventional ideas are being suggested in case a U.S. spending deal can't be made. Today, we'll look at one such suggestion: minting a high-dollar platinum coin.

May 16, 2023

While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we'll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright.

May 09, 2023

Recent inflation readings continue to come in below their COVID-19 era highs, but has the persistence of inflation also come down?

April 18, 2023

Our preliminary findings suggest that, across industries, the decline in job openings may be more related to hiring challenges rather than quit rates.

April 11, 2023

Smaller businesses' demand for workers has made up a considerable part of the surge in job openings observed over the past two years. But some data suggest that surge is beginning to wane.

April 04, 2023

Indexes of market rents are currently showing a significant slowing versus their peaks in 2022, but the rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation continue to rise.

March 28, 2023

Will strong hiring continue in the leisure and hospitality industry?

March 7, 2023

This post explores what impact the personal savings rate could have on households and their spending.

February 28, 2023

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

February 14, 2023

Some workers may continue to see larger than normal pay increases as wage differentials across sectors revert to their pre-pandemic norms. These increases, however, aren't distributed evenly across sectors.

Julian Kikuchi and John O'Trakoun

February 07, 2023

Are households cutting back on spending, and if so, where?

January 17, 2023

Debt is bouncing back as consumers borrow more to pay today's higher prices. So, how has consumer debt trended in recent months?

January 10, 2023

For our first post in 2023, we pick up right where we left off: discussing inflation

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