Trade and International Economics

Blog Post

Flight to Safety: Where Turbulence Means Higher Demand

Macro Minute

April 7, 2026

This week's post explores how the flight-to-safety effect has impacted the U.S. dollar and U.S. long-term Treasury yields since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

Tariffs: What We Have Learned One Year Later

Speaking of the Economy

April 1, 2026

Renee Haltom shares what the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has learned from its business contacts and regional surveys about the impact of trade policy changes since last April. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president of sensing, engagement and publications at the Richmond Fed.

Working Paper

Clientelism, Institutions and Sovereign Default

Working Paper Series

March 2026, No. 26-06

Emerging economies exhibit pro-cyclical fiscal policy, counter-cyclical sovereign spreads, and recurrent debt crises, whereas advanced economies sustain high debt with low spreads and lower volatility in outcomes.

Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra

Article

Pharmaceutical Onshoring in the Fifth District

Econ Focus

First/Second Quarter 2026

As pharmaceutical manufacturers look to bring production back to the United States, the Fifth District is attracting billions of dollars in cutting-edge life sciences investments.

Matthew Wells

Working Paper

District Heterogeneity, Legislative Bargaining, and Trade Policy

Working Paper Series

March 2026, No. 26-04

The paper discusses a model that aggregates district trade preferences into a national trade policy through legislative bargaining, incorporating institutional design, economic and political geography and bargaining.

Kishore Gawande, Pablo M. Pinto and Santiago M. Pinto

Podcast

Keeping Up on the Economy with Anna Kovner

Speaking of the Economy

Jan. 14, 2026

Anna Kovner, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, reviews the significant, rapid changes in trade policy, immigration policy, and the size of the federal workforce in 2025. She also discusses how the Richmond Fed has assessed the economic impact of these changes through its research and outreach programs.

Blog Post

How Much Revenue Has Been Raised by Tariffs So Far?

Macro Minute

January 13, 2026

As of October, the average effective tariff rate for the U.S. stood at 11.4 percent, which would be the highest rate since 1943.

Marina Azzimonti, Jacob Titcomb and John O'Trakoun

Survey

Uncertainty Declines, Tariffs Persist: Measuring the Impact of Tariffs on CFOs' Price and Cost Growth Forecasts

Sept. 24, 2025

Firms' economic outlooks and tariff concerns improved somewhat in the recent CFO Survey, but higher costs and price growth are still expected by firms who import from abroad.

Zach Edwards and Daniel Weitz

Blog Post

Tariff Cost Pass-through Among Fifth District Firms

Regional Matters

August 26, 2025

Though tariff uncertainty persists, most Fifth District businesses that are directly affected by tariffs have raised prices, and many plan to raise prices in the coming months.

Zach Edwards and James Melton

Podcast

Are Higher Tariffs Leading to Higher Inflation?

Speaking of the Economy

Aug. 20, 2025

Zach Edwards and Felipe Schwartzman share what they have learned about how much businesses have been passing along higher prices for their inputs — especially due to higher tariffs in 2025 — to the prices they charge their customers. They also discuss how this cost pass-through could affect overall inflation. Edwards is a research analyst and Schwartzman is a senior economist, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Blog Post

Why Businesses Say Tariffs Have a Delayed Effect on Inflation

Regional Matters

August 8, 2025

We are learning from businesses that there are several factors that can delay both the incurring of tariffs and the impact of incurred tariffs on pricing decisions.

R. Andrew Bauer, Renee Haltom and Matthew Martin

Blog Post

The Importance of Import Prices

Macro Minute

August 5, 2025

Despite the dramatic changes in trade policy, core import prices have risen so far this year, though this growth is lower than during the pandemic period.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Why Predicted and Actual Tariff Rates Diverged in May 2025

Economic Brief

August 2025, No. 25-29

The predicted average effective tariff rate for May was 17.5 percent, but the actual rate turned out to be 8.7 percent.

Marina Azzimonti

Podcast

Getting a Grip on U.S. Tariff Changes

Speaking of the Economy

July 9, 2025

Marina Azzimonti discusses the complexities of measuring the regional and sectoral impacts of tariffs and reviews the rapid series of changes to U.S. trade policy since the beginning of 2025. Azzimonti is a senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

South Carolina's Globalized Economy

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Driven by the auto industry, the Palmetto State is a global economic player. How will tariff uncertainty impact its businesses?

Matthew Wells

Article

Carmen Reinhart

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2025

Economist Carmen Reinhart discusses the twin financial and currency crises, the future of the dollar, sovereign debt, and more.

Tim Sablik

Article

Economic Effects Everywhere All at Once

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-25

Global interconnectedness has been present for decades, as seen by how countries' GDP growth and inflation tend to move together.

Katherine Anderson, Paul Ho and Nathan Robino

Survey

What Do Tariff Concerns Mean for CFOs' Outlooks?

June 25, 2025

Results from the CFO Survey suggest that while trade policy may affect business conditions broadly, firms directly affected by tariffs are impacted most.

Zach Edwards and Daniel Weitz

Article

Tariff Update: Incorporating Recent Decisions and Deals

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-23

An "impact factor" may help estimate how tariffs affect the cost of intermediate inputs used in production.

Marina Azzimonti and Acacia Wyckoff

Article

The Debt Brake: Unsafe at Any Speed?

Economic Brief

June 2025, No. 25-22

Once lauded as a model of fiscal discipline, Germany's debt brake now stands at the center of a growing debate over its broader economic consequences.

Thomas A. Lubik

Blog Post

The Impact of Tariffs on Our Region's Firms

Regional Matters

June 3, 2025

According to our May business surveys, most firms are responding to tariffs in a variety of ways, including planning and implementing price increases, delaying capital expenditures, and changing hiring plans.

Zach Edwards and Nathan Sumner

Article

When Are Tariffs Optimal?

Economic Brief

May 2025, No. 25-21

Situations where tariffs provide overall benefits are theoretically possible but appear to be practically limited.

Thomas A. Lubik

Blog Post

How Constrained Are Global Supply Chains?

Macro Minute

May 20, 2025

As supply chains respond to shifts in global tariff and trade policies, measurements on the constraints they face could provide clues on how inflation might react.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Podcast

How the Fed Mines Data for New Insights

Speaking of the Economy

May 14, 2025

Nicolas Morales, Horacio Sapriza, and Chen Yeh take listeners behind the scenes on how they work with detailed, confidential datasets about businesses and individuals. They also discuss how they gain insights on topics like immigration, credit markets, and labor productivity while safeguarding privacy rights. Morales is an economist, Sapriza is a senior economist and policy advisor, and Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Podcast

CFO Optimism Falls as Tariff Concerns Rise

Speaking of the Economy

April 23, 2025

Zach Edwards and Daniel Weitz discuss the concerns that chief financial officers across the country reported about their own companies and the national economy in the latest CFO Survey. Edwards is a research analyst on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Weitz is survey director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Article

Can Trade Help Mitigate Risk From Weather Disruptions?

Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-17

Firms may source inputs from a variety of suppliers to help avoid weather disrupting their supply chains.

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Simon Farbman, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Article

Tariff Update: Incorporating the April 9 Announcements

Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-15

The recent tariff announcement implies that the average effective tariff rate would rise further compared to our previous analysis.

Marina Azzimonti, Zach Edwards, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Acacia Wyckoff

Blog Post

Auto Industry Has Little Wiggle Room to Navigate Tariff Hikes

Macro Minute

April 8, 2025

Data from the automotive industry seems to suggest car buyers could feel the effects of tariffs sooner rather than later.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

Tariffs Update: Potential Effects of the April 2 Announcements

Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-13

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

Marina Azzimonti, Zach Edwards, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Acacia Wyckoff

Article

Tariffs: Estimating the Economic Impact of the 2025 Measures and Proposals

Economic Brief

April 2025, No. 25-12

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

Marina Azzimonti, Zach Edwards, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Acacia Wyckoff

Survey

How Are Tariffs Impacting Firms?

March 26, 2025

Our first CFO Survey of 2025 explored the extent to which firms' supplies are imported from countries facing tariffs and how this exposure impacts firms' expectations.

Zach Edwards, Lauren Taylor and Daniel Weitz

Blog Post

How Might Fifth District Firms React to Changing Tariff Policies?

Regional Matters

March 25, 2025

In March, we asked Fifth District businesses about the impacts of tariffs. Most expected to be impacted negatively and anticipated passing through some of the additional costs to customers.

Marina Azzimonti, Zach Edwards, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell and Acacia Wyckoff

Blog Post

The Price of Tariffs on Fifth District Businesses

Regional Matters

February 6, 2025

Fifth District businesses are concerned about tariffs, especially those that source inputs or sell outputs abroad. However, data from our December business surveys suggests little relationship between tariff concerns and firms' 2025 price and cost growth expectations.

Zach Edwards, James Melton and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell

Podcast

When Countries Borrow, The Strength of Their Institutions Matters

Speaking of the Economy

Feb. 5, 2025

Marina Azzimonti discusses the rise in the cost of borrowing for countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the broader implications of this trend for emerging markets, especially those that don't have strong governmental institutions. Azzimonti is a senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Article

Supply Chain Resilience and the Effects of Economic Shocks

Economic Brief

January 2025, No. 25-02

Economic shocks can be amplified through supply chains. In response, many firms and policies are aiming to increase supply chain resilience.

Nicolas Morales

Working Paper

The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream

Working Paper Series

January 2025, No. 25-01

Research shows the H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science occupations and helped drive the shift in IT production from the United States to India.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Article

The Center for Advancing Women in Economics: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

December 2024, No. 24-40

The topics presented included unconventional monetary and fiscal policy, global inflation patterns and worker responses to labor shocks.

Matthew Wells

Article

Laura Alfaro

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2024

Laura Alfaro, a Harvard Business School professor and former Costa Rica cabinet minister, on global supply chains, sentiment about trade, and what the U.S. can learn from Latin America.

David A. Price

Podcast

The Economic Impact of the Key Bridge Collapse

Speaking of the Economy

June 12, 2024

Jason Kosakow and Adam Scavette review the economic effects of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on the national, regional, and local level. Kosakow is the Richmond Fed's survey director and Scavette is a regional economist at the Bank's branch office in Baltimore.

Article

Can China Avoid a Liquidity-Trap Recession? Some Unintended Consequences of Macroprudential Policies

Economic Brief

April 2024, No. 24-12

Some think such a trap for China is imminent, due to factors such as a surge in deposits, mounting deflationary pressures and high youth unemployment rates.

Russell Wong

Blog Post

The Port of Baltimore Will Bounce Back

Macro Minute

April 9, 2024

Temporary losses look to be severe after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and closure of the Port of Baltimore, but there are several reasons to be optimistic about recovery.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Working Paper

Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk (Revised June 2025)

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-03R

While diversification mitigates climate risk, it exacerbates the distributional consequences of climate change by reducing wages in regions prone to frequent shocks.

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Working Paper

Sectoral Development Multipliers

Working Paper Series

March 2024, No. 24-02

We find that technology adoption greatly amplifies the multipliers' magnitudes, and it changes the ranking of priority sectors for industrial policy.

Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

Article

Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-10

The pattern of r* paths for other countries seem more alike to each other than they are to the U.S.

Thomas A. Lubik, Brennan Merone and Nathan Robino

Article

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Economic Spillovers Across Borders

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 15, 2023

Paul Ho talks about how countries are connected to each other through international trade and how these connections help spread economic shocks across the globe. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Heterogeneous Districts, Interests, and Trade Policy

Working Paper Series

November 2023, No. 23-12

Our supply-side explanation for trade policy reveals district and industry-level patterns of winners and losers, central to understanding the political consequences of trade and the backlash against globalization.

Kishore Gawande, Pablo M. Pinto and Santiago M. Pinto

Conference

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

Article

Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-17

Researchers covered topics including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.

John Mullin and Matthew Wells

Working Paper

Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation

Working Paper Series

March 2023, No. 23-06

We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk.

Toan Phan and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

Sovereign Debt and Credit Default Swaps (Revised November 2023)

Working Paper Series

March 2023, No. 23-05R

How do credit default swaps (CDS) affect sovereign debt markets? Our baseline specification predicts trading frictions and an inability to short sell bonds significantly improves sovereign debt prices, but policies that restrict CDS trading have small effects.

Gaston Chaumont, Grey Gordon, Bruno Sultanum and Elliot Tobin

Article

Hidden Effects of Global Trade

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

Economic disturbances are not confined within the country where they originate; they propagate throughout that country's trading network as both its immediate trading partners and trading partners of trading partners react.

Aubrey George

Article

Policies for Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Economic Brief

February 2023, No. 23-04

Improving such restructurings have garnered additional attention as sovereign debt has increased significantly in the past couple of years.

Kushal Patel and Horacio Sapriza

Article

How Does Trade Impact the Way GDP Growth and Inflation Comove Across Countries?

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-01

Seemingly small international trade linkages can lead to substantial spillovers across countries, helping explain global comovement in GDP growth and inflation across countries.

Paul Ho, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms (Revised January 2025)

Working Paper Series

December 2022, No. 22-11R

In this paper, we use new data on daily firm-to-firm transactions from India, coupled with a large exogenous shock that disrupted supply chains to varying degrees.

Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Working Paper

Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way

Working Paper Series

November 2022, No. 22-10

We study how international linkages and nominal price rigidities jointly shape the dynamics of inflation and output across multiple large economies.

Paul Ho, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

London Calling: Is Turmoil in U.K. Debt Markets the Shape of Things to Come?

Macro Minute

November 8, 2022

In recent weeks, government debt and foreign exchange markets in the U.K. were roiled by a remarkable amount of volatility.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Trade, Specialization, Property Rights and Wealth Inequality: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-42

Tariffs, property rights and producing inputs versus buying them: These were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Appreciating Dollar Appreciation

Macro Minute

October 18, 2022

As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

How Do Real Exchange Rates Vary in Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults?

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-40

Hard (or large) sovereign defaults have been associated with larger negative economic responses than soft defaults.

Brandon Fuller, Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana

Podcast

China's Regulation of Firms and Banks: Financial Stability or Control?

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 5, 2022

Chang-Tai Hsieh and Tao Zha share their research on China's economy and financial system, and discuss the country's growth during the last decade as well as its recent regulation of private firms and banks. Hsieh teaches at the University of Chicago, while Zha works at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University.

Article

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Columbia University economist on inflation, capital controls, and finding research topics.

David A. Price

Article

Is Dollar Dominance in Doubt?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

The dollar has been the global currency of choice for nearly a century, but in light of recent U.S.-led financial sanctions, some wonder whether that status will endure.

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Working Paper Series

June 2022, No. 22-06

The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global ﬁnancial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among academics and policymakers.

Maximiliano Dvorkin, Juan M. Sanchez, Horacio Sapriza and Emircan Yurdagul

Article

How Does Trade Policy Get Decided?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-11

Consumers who would benefit from lower tariffs on a good tend to matter more when setting trade policy than producers who want higher tariffs.

Santiago M. Pinto

Blog Post

Oil Is Not Well in the World

Macro Minute

March 22, 2022

Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Article

What Is SWIFT, and Could Sanctions Impact the U.S. Dollar's Dominance?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-09

The recent removal of several Russian banks from SWIFT has sparked questions about unintended consequences.

Russell Wong

Article

Pinelopi Goldberg

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

Yale University economist on developing countries, measuring economies by satellite, and the learning crisis.

David A. Price

Article

Global Banks, Local Branches, and Faraway Crises

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

How do financial crises affecting banks in one part of the world ripple through the global economy?

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Omicron Ominous Overseas

Macro Minute

December 28, 2021

The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.

John O'Trakoun
Senior Policy Economist

Working Paper

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments (Revised April 2025)

Working Paper Series

December 2021, No. 21-16R

The authors document significant heterogeneity in immigrant share across employers in Germany, with large firms spending a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small firms.

Agostina Brinatti and Nicolas Morales

Article

Genghis Khan, Trade Warrior

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

His Pax Mongolica connected Europe and China, leading to exchanges of technology and culture.

John Mullin

Article

A Look Back at Financial Repression

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

The policies were gradually phased out in many advanced and emerging economies. Will they come back?

John Mullin

Article

Sovereign CDS Dealers as Market Stabilizers

Economic Brief

December 2020, No. 20-13

Economists at the Richmond Fed analyze the role of dealer-provided liquidity in sovereign credit default swap markets.

John Mullin and Bruno Sultanum

Article

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

Economic Brief

January 2020, No. 20-01

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s?

Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik

Article

Should We Worry about Trade Imbalances?

Economic Brief

October 2017, No. 17-10

Trade imbalances are a perennial concern for policymakers and the public. But what does it mean for a country to have a trade surplus or deficit?

Thomas A. Lubik and Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Ties That Bind: The Carolinas in an Integrated Global Economy

Regional Matters

March 22, 2017

While increased global integration required painful adjustments for some workers and communities as well as companies and even entire industries, there have also been significant benefits to this global interconnectedness, including in the Carolinas.

Richard Kaglic

Article

Dani Rodrik

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Harvard University economist on risks of financial globalization in developing countries, the role of the nation-state, and local culture in economics

Aaron Steelman
Publications Director

Speech

Starting Early in Workforce Development

Nov. 5, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed workforce development during his speech to Charlotte business leaders on Nov. 5.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Global Interdependence and Central Banking

Nov. 1, 2013

President Jeff Lacker addresses the Global Interdependence Center in Philadelphia, which named him its 2013 Global Citizen.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

TARGET2: Symptom, Not Cause, of Eurozone Woes

Economic Brief

August 2012, No. 12-08

In recent years, large positive and negative balances have arisen in TARGET2, the interbank settlement and payments system of the Eurozone. These balances show that the Deutsche Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, has become a large net creditor to the European Central Bank (ECB).

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes